Game 6 Preview: Clemson Travels to Winston-Salem to Face Wake Forest

Greetings STS! October is here and the Tigers are on a roll after dispatching the Seminoles last weekend in Tallahassee. The game played a lot like I had thought it would, with the offense not being quite as productive as in the previous three games but the defense being largely dominant. I was frustrated with the lack of touchdowns after 500 yards of offense but seeing the carnage from the upsets across the country, I happily took the win.

I was with a childhood friend of mine last weekend, and he and I recalled some of our trips to Winston-Salem during the Bowden years that were either very fortunate wins (see 2006) or some disastrous losses (see 2003, 2005). Dabo Swinney has done many great things as Clemson’s coach (such as just breaking Bobby Bowden’s ACC win record), and one of those things is not losing to Wake Forest. In fact, Clemson’s last loss to the Deacs was Tommy Bowden’s final game in 2008.

There have been close calls, especially the 2022 game when Clemson thankfully got probably the greatest performance of DJU’s career to pull out a 51-45 OT victory. Last year was no picnic either because the Clemson offense couldn’t get out of its own way for the majority of the game. This Wake Forest team isn’t what that 2022 unit was, which was probably Dave Clawson’s best collection of talent and experience, and Clemson has certainly rounded into a much more complete product on offense. The Tigers are big favorites because of these things, but Winston-Salem has been the scene of some very head-scratching games, and it still comes down to execution and limiting mistakes.

Clemson Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense: I think we can safely say that Cade Klubnik has re-established Clemson’s quarterback play as being at the top of the ACC. Clemson’s league dominance, much like FSU’s that preceded it, was largely driven by having the best QB/WR play in just about every contest. The defenses have also played major roles, but having that edge behind center allowed FSU and then Clemson to overcome days when the defense might not be as dominant as usual. I remember Nealon Greene and the Clemson offense playing way above their heads against FSU in 1995 and again in 1997 just to see FSU’s QB and skill guys be the ultimate difference. 1997 Tony Horne had an incredible game, but Peter Warrick was even more destructive on the other side.

Wake’s defense, at least on paper, should not offer nearly the test up front that Stanford and FSU’s fronts did. Wake is second to last in ACC scoring defense and dead last in total defense and passing defense. Clemson should have its way with things on this side of the ball provided they take care of the ball and limit penalties. Phil Mafah reminded everyone last weekend what he can do when the team decides to feature him with a lot of carries. The image of the FSU’s safety’s mouthpiece lying on the turf after he was trucked by Mafah will be one I remember for a long time.

Clemson should have its entire WR corps back up and running this week as well. Tyler Brown and Adam Randall have reportedly been full go in practice. I went to the Cheez-It Bowl in 2021 and Clemson’s WR unit was paper thin in that game, so it is nice to see co-starters listed at every spot because the staff has so many options they feel they can send out there first.

Clemson Defense vs. Wake Forest Offense: If Wake hopes to spring a big upset this weekend, their offense will need to produce in a similar fashion to their 2022 unit that largely had their way with Clemson’s defense that afternoon. It was perhaps Wes Goodwin’s worst outing as DC as it took him nearly the entire game to make the necessary adjustments to slow down Wake’s offense. Clemson’s corners were left on islands way too often considering how badly they were being burned by big catches or pass interference calls to prevent big catches.

Wake’s scheme is designed to create isolations on their WR by making you want to commit safeties down to deal with their zone read run game. If your corners can hold up, you can get away with this, but Wake has done about as good a job as anyone in the last six or seven years of identifying good WR talent and developing it. They aren’t signing 5 stars so you have to credit them for the underrated guys they have brought in and helped turn into really good players. Dave Clawson’s program has also generally done well with their QB development. That took a hit last year, mainly because Sam Hartman decided to take NIL money in his COVID year and play for Notre Dame, but Wake brought in Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier who has gotten their offense back to a level closer to the Hartman days.

However, the only defense they have faced that has the type of up front power Clemson has is Ole Miss’s. That defense held Wake to just six points in a 40-6 beat down. Wake relies heavily on its inside zone runs with Demond Claiborne and also some QB runs with Bachmeier in order to set up play action shot plays. Ole Miss eliminated the run game and Wake was unable to throw effectively enough (and avoid the pass rush enough) to hurt the Rebels. Wake will also not have Donovan Greene available for this game which doesn’t help their cause.

Wake is well coached and they often do about as well as anyone out there maximizing what they have to work with. They are feeling better about themselves coming off a come from behind win against NCSU in Raleigh (insert maniacal laughter at Dave Doeren’s expense here). Clemson has offset that by largely dominating the lines of scrimmage and forcing Wake to play from behind. Clemson will look to eliminate the run game like they did last week against FSU (though Wake is better at running the ball than the Noles this year) and take their chances with Bachmeier having to throw to win. Clemson having Peter Woods back off a full week of practice should be key to those efforts.

Special Teams: Clemson showed the first real chinks in the armor in this phase last week when the left side of the FG protection got destroyed twice on blocked kicks. The good news was Nolan Houser didn’t let that throw him off on future kicks the way we saw Robert Gunn not really recover from the blocked kicks at Duke last year. Houser has all the looks of a guy with the mental toughness an elite kicker has to have at this point. The return game was good when Antonio Williams decided to not fair catch a punt. I would attribute some of those fair catches to the hang time on those punts. Most returners can’t afford to take a peak at the coverage coming at them and instead use a clock in their head to determine when to call fair catch while keeping their eyes on the ball. Williams likely thought he was not going to have much room only to see after the catch that he definitely did. That’s a little frustrating to fans in the stands or watching on TV, but I can understand how it happened.

This is not a game that should come down to special teams, but the 2022 game in particular certainly did when B.T. Potter drilled a 52 yarder to get that game into OT.

Overall: There really isn’t much reason for Clemson to not expect to win this game going away. Wake is not good on defense and not built as well to attack Clemson through the air as it was the last time the Tigers went to Winston-Salem. It really comes down to Clemson’s maturity and focus in what will be a lighter atmosphere compared to a night kick in Tallahassee. Tommy Bowden’s teams notoriously showed lack of focus and were exposed by hungry and well coached Wake teams, particularly in Winston-Salem. I’m banking on Dabo’s windshield mentality showing up once again this week.

Clemson 49-Wake 20