Gates’ Race To Nourish A Warming World: The Promise Of Dairy

In a small town near Eldoret in western Kenya, dairy farmer Coletta Kemboi hands a cup of milk to each of her three children. This simple beverage, one that many around the world take for granted, is “white gold” for her family— a vital source of nourishment, a means of income, and a powerful shield against malnutrition. In her village, dairy farming has begun to transform lives, thanks to innovative interventions that could reshape the future for millions.

Over 14,000 kilometers away, in the Seattle offices of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, co-chair Bill Gates joins me via video conference. He’s here to review the findings of the foundation’s eighth annual Goalkeepers report, A Race to Nourish a Warming World— a scorecard tracking global progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals most relevant to the foundation’s work.

His message is sobering. “The malnutrition numbers are really shocking,” he stresses. “I don’t like to depress people. I always start out with reminding people of the progress we’ve made. But on malnutrition, the progress actually is pretty modest… In Africa, we’re still at 40%-type levels.”

The report reveals that child stunting— or “low height for age”— has stalled at 24%, with projections suggesting that 23% of children under 5 will still be affected in 2030, falling short of the 2025 target of 15%. Without urgent global action, climate change could push an additional 40 million children into stunting and 28 million more into wasting by 2050.

Amid these disheartening statistics, Gates speaks with passion about the solutions. Among them, the foundation’s investments in dairy interventions hold great promise. These programs aim to increase milk production, improve its safety, and make it more accessible, potentially preventing 109 million cases of child stunting in just five countries – India, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Tanzania – by 2050.

“Dairy is a uniquely high source of nutrients, which nutritional profile that allows it to have a very central impact on children’s growth and development,” says Shelly Sundberg, who leads the foundation’s Agricultural Development team’s initiatives to empower women in agriculture, improve food security, and increase climate resilience.

She stresses the importance of ensuring continuous access to safe, affordable and , nutritious diets. “There is a link between having good nutrition and being able to survive shocks, whether it’s climate change or an economic shock or political shock like conflict, because human bodies need good nutrition in order to resist disease, in order to have good cognitive development, and in order to make good decisions for their family.”

In many parts of Africa, where a glass of milk can mean the difference between health and malnutrition, cows typically produce just 2 liters of milk per day— barely enough to sustain families or significantly impact children’s nutrition. Gates sees this challenge as an opportunity for transformative impact. The foundation’s dairy programs focus on agricultural technologies that can produce more milk, safer milk— milk that can lift families out of poverty and protect children from stunting.

“The potential for cows is phenomenal,” he insists. “When I was in Kenya last, I saw that.”

Gates recalls meeting a woman farmer whose life had been changed through one of the foundation’s dairy programs. Not only had her cows’ milk production increased, resulting in higher income, but her children’s health had also improved.

“In some parts of Kenya, cows are now producing 6 to 10 times more milk than before,” he says.

The impact of these interventions goes beyond milk production. They empower women, many of whom are dairy farmers and vendors. “We’ve seen that it’s raised the income of women,” Gates says. “They spend it on the children more than if the income is going to a man. This one intervention intersects with many of the priorities of the Foundation.”

Coletta Kemboi’s journey, as depicted in the Goalkeepers Report, exemplifies this transformation. She and her husband began dairy farming 15 years ago but struggled to make it work. “When we started our business, it was hard to find customers. Sometimes our milk spoiled, and the customers we did have would complain,” she recalls.

This changed after participating in the MoreMilk program. “I learned where to keep our cows, how to clean them, and how to prevent transferring bacteria from the cows to the milk,” she says. Her cows became healthier and more productive, and she began creating value-added products from the excess milk.

“Since then, we have not had any complaints about spoilage. The extra money we are earning goes to the farm— we are planting beans— and to our house. And we are able to pay my three children’s school fees.”

Yet, for Kemboi and others like her, climate change is a looming threat. Changing weather patterns, rising temperatures, and more frequent droughts reduce the availability of water and quality feed for cows. These conditions can lead to heat stress, reducing milk production and compromising animal health.

“In Africa, it’s said that every 30 seconds a cow dies,” says Donald Nkrumah, who oversees the foundation’s Agricultural Development team’s dairy investments in interventions for livestock.

Having grown up in a rural community in Ghana, Nkrumah knows the stakes firsthand. “Imagine a woman who has this cow, and then there’s this climate issue, you know, whether it’s disease or they don’t have a way to feed a cow, and they lose the asset. It’s not just the woman’s livelihood— it’s her kids. If a kid is sick, if the kid needs to pay some school fees to be able to write some critical exam to go to university, all of it is impacted.”

To counter these challenges, the foundation is focusing on investing in initiatives– such as those led by the International Livestock Research Institute– to develop crossbreeds that are both productive and resilient to harsh climates. Under one such initiative, the African Dairy Genetic Gains (ADGG) Program, scientists and researchers are working on solutions that combine the productivity of cows from wealthier nations with the heat tolerance and disease resistance of African breeds.

“We can take, and almost for free, get the cow genetics,” Gates explains. “But you can’t just use the Western cows; you have to combine the heat tolerance and disease tolerance that the African breeds have.”

Despite the challenges, Gates remains hopeful. Reflecting on the foundation’s journey, he balances realism with optimism. “I was spoiled by 2000 to 2015,” he says with a smile, recalling the golden years of global health investment.

Since then, progress has stalled.

“Share of aid to Africa has gone down,” he laments, pointing to the compounding crises of the pandemic, rising debts in African countries, and reduced aid in the face of other global priorities like the war in Ukraine.

Gates acknowledges that the results of the foundation’s investments in dairy programs are still in their early stages. Scaling them up will require concerted effort and collaboration. “We need to say, okay, what is the dairy productivity today, and where can we get to in five years and ten years? And tell me the bottlenecks. What grants do we need? Are there African scientists who need to endorse this for their own countries?” He stresses the need for partnerships with governments, donors, and international organizations to drive progress.

For families like Coletta Kemboi’s, the foundation’s investments in dairy interventions are life-changing, but they are only one piece of a much larger puzzle. The Goalkeepers report underscores the complexities of the road ahead. It makes clear that solving malnutrition requires a multi-faceted approach— one that involves enhancing food systems, building resilience to climate change, and addressing economic disparities.

Despite the complexities, Gates’ dedication is clear. “Once you’re involved in this cause, it’s hard to work on anything else. We’re still dedicated to this, my resources, my time, and an incredible team that we built at the Foundation.”

For many children in low-income countries, nutrition is not just about fighting hunger; it’s about providing the essential building blocks they need to grow, learn, and eventually contribute to their communities and economies. In some instances, it’s the difference between life and death.

“If we solve malnutrition,” Gates says, “we make it easier to solve every other problem.”