GDPNow Rates the Jobs Report as Positive, That Was Not My Guess

The GDPNow Nowcast moved higher today on the “strength” (or lack thereof) of last Friday’s jobs report.

Earlier this morning I commented on Twitter “A guess with no firm conviction GDPNow down 0.2 PP today from last report.“

I did not think much of the jobs report but the nowcast thought otherwise. All of the jump to 2.7 percent was on the September 6 jobs report.

I suspect but have not confirmed with Pat Higgins that the decline in the unemployment rate or increase in wages offset the other poor internals of the report.

Regardless, for whatever reason, the report was better than the model expected. That’s what matters, not the report itself.

My guess, “without strong conviction” was the data was worse than the model expected.

BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months

For discussion of the jobs report please see Payroll Report: Manufacturing Sheds 24,000 Jobs, Government Adds 24,000, Big Negative Revisions

Also see BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months

For another speculative call, please see Year-Over-Year Rent Inflation Is About to Fall Sharply

At the risk of looking silly, I will translate that into a CPI forecast later today.