Get ready for an early push on holiday shopping: Down to Business

Last month, Halloween candy competed with pens and paper during back-to-school sales at a local big-box store. This week, the retailer’s garden center was being remade for Christmas.

What’s behind the rush? A late Thanksgiving that reduces the number of holiday shopping days.

And then there’s the 2024 elections, which will suck up ad space and attention until the polls close Nov. 5.

The National Retail Federation says retailers put out holiday merchandise early in response to shoppers, a big chunk of whom start shopping before the traditional post-Thanksgiving start in November. Many do that to spread out their budget or to avoid the stress and crowds that come late in the season, according to the trade group, which annually tracks consumer behavior and sales.

Retailers like Target and Best Buy have started posting holiday plans, and Amazon just announced its October online Prime Days, with Walmart Deal Days sure to follow.

While the Retail Federation’s 2024 holiday spending predictions are not out yet, Boston Consulting Group offered this outlook for retailers: “ready the sleigh, because conditions call for a fast, exhilarating rise as shopping begins.”

On Tuesday, the global business consultant released a report compiled from consumer surveys and credit card data that shows a mixed picture for holiday spending.

While job and income growth are back to pre-pandemic levels, BCG says, consumers are cautious after battling high inflation that had them digging deeper into their pockets to pay for staples. Military conflicts abroad and the presidential election are also on their minds.

“Feeling uncertain but financially stable, households may choose to play it safe this holiday season but still spend as much as, or modestly more than, they did last year,” according to BCG.

The firm says its 2024 outlook survey shows a quarter of consumers planning to spend more this year, an equal percentage saying they’ll spend less, and just under half expecting to spend the same as last year.

Unique to this holiday season will be the November elections, which BCG says “is already contracting supply and boosting prices for the best media spots likely to draw consumer attention.”

That means that many Americans will be “less likely to think about their holiday shopping lists until their votes are in.”

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On the plus side, though, historical precedent suggests that no matter who wins, “the election is unlikely to drive a contraction in consumer spending,” according to BCG.

The firm offered these tips to retailers looking to navigate the 2024 holidays: expect an early peak in spending ahead of Thanksgiving; the usual “peak season” between Cyber Monday and Christmas will be especially competitive in vying for shopper attention; and “winning strategies” mean deploying resources not only in October but also during the height of December shopping.

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