Go West? The next wave of realignment is in Memphis’ hands

Go West, young man.

Surely, you’ve heard the phrase before. It’s been in American existence since the mid-1800s, credited to author and newspaper editor Horace Greeley, who, in an 1865 edition of the New York Daily Tribune, wrote those words as a way to encourage Americans to migrate away from the country’s founding territories in the East.

“Washington (D.C.) is not a place to live in,” he wrote. “The rents are high, the food is bad, the dust is disgusting and the morals are deplorable. Go West, young man.”

The rents in D.C. remain high, by the way.

But this story is not about the rent prices in D.C. It is about going west. To be more specific, it is about going west for a group of college athletic programs. And to get even more specific, it is about going west for the Memphis Tigers.

The Pac-12’s resurgence — taking four Mountain West Conference members — has left one school, it seems, with a decision that could completely reshape the lower half of the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Go West or not?

The situation

Memphis doesn’t have a formal invitation into the Pac-12, but that’s likely only because it hasn’t accepted a (forthcoming) invitation. The oft-used motto during the coaching cycle applies here: A job cannot be offered if it isn’t accepted.

The Pac-12’s pursuit of Memphis justifies what many in college athletics know to be true: The most desirable remaining Group of Five program is Memphis. The school resides in a college football hub (Memphis often ranks as a top-10 market in college football viewership); it has recent success in the sport (winning seasons in eight of the last nine, including three 10-win years); it has a historic basketball program (11 Sweet 16s); and, perhaps most notably in these money-driven times, it has an incredibly wealthy and powerful booster (Fred Smith, the founder and chairman of FedEx, a company that recently pledged $25 million in name, image and likeness funds over the next five years).

It is no surprise that the Pac-12 officials and commissioner Teresa Gould have targeted Memphis to join the resurging league with original members Oregon State and Washington State and expansion schools Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State and Colorado State set to join the conference in 2026.

To meet NCAA and CFP requirements, the league must reach eight full members, a reason that the Pac-12 — and/or its consulting firm Navigate — is in discussion with three other American Athletic Conference members: South Florida, Tulane and UTSA.

What if Memphis goes west?

Memphis holds the proverbial cards, it seems. The school is the jewel of the American (but not the only one), a proud member since joining the league from Conference USA in 2013.

Its decision may impact the decision of the others, creating a cascading exit that would leave a gaping hole in the AAC. South Florida and Tulane are unlikely to leave without Memphis. And Memphis might not leave without them. This is a packaged deal or no deal at all.

“They may not want to go, but they don’t want the other guy to go without them,” someone involved in the negotiations said.

UTSA, in a different geographical and financial position, presents a different case.

Either way, three or four of them would create an eastern flank of the new Pac-12.

There are reasons to do it.

There is likely more money in it. Likely is the key word here (we’ll get to that later).

According to multiple people who have seen the Pac-12’s presentation, the league is…

• projecting a per-school distribution of $12-15 million — if they achieve in acquiring their top targets in the AAC.

• requiring at least a five-year grant-of-rights agreement (through 2030-31).

• presenting a base distribution model that includes a performance-based bonus concept.

The top programs in the AAC are earning around $8-9 million annually in all-in conference distribution, which includes television monies, bowl payouts, NCAA tournament units, etc.

For the most part, the distribution from a conference provides schools their main source of revenue, at some places responsible for one-third of a department’s budget. It is the driving force for the most recent wave of conference realignment, as schools eschew historic rivalries and geographic footprints to shift to leagues with TV deals that pay out more money (ie: Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, etc.).

There are more reasons than financial for the G5 schools.

Despite the loss of 10 of its schools, the Pac-12 is banking on its brand, network studios and western time zone slots to deliver it sponsorship deals, additional revenues and unencumbered television windows. There is also a thought that the conference will separate itself if it acquires its primary targets in the AAC — not as the sixth league of a new Group of Six, but a standalone conference situated in a pecking order between the Group of Five and the ACC and Big 12.

It is selling access in the College Football Playoff: Win this league and, more years than not, you’ll secure the fifth automatic qualifier in the CFP.

It is also, maybe down the line, selling more distribution from the CFP: Could the Pac-12 argue to get more of a cut of the cash than those in the Group of Five?

Basketball is not an afterthought. Memphis could join a league with San Diego State, a surging power in hoops that advanced to back-to-back Sweet 16s and the 2023 title game. The Tigers may eventually have other basketball-centric leaguemates in the Pac-12 as well, like Gonzaga — expected to be a Pac-12 target.

If Memphis does go west and the others follow, it leaves the AAC searching for replacements. If he loses teams or not, commissioner Tim Pernetti may bring into the league Air Force, a school that he’s been in serious negotiations with for more than a week. Nothing with the Falcons is imminent (one of the issues here: traveling Olympic sports). Also, Air Force has other options (we’ll get to that later too).

The replacements are likely to emerge from the Sun Belt or Conference USA, two leagues that offer their schools about one-third in distributed revenues ($1.5-3 million) compared to the AAC. Financially, it would be enticing for James Madison, Liberty, Texas State or whomever else is targeted.

Memphis (and the others) going west impacts another league too: the Mountain West, which is working to solidify its current members with a more long-term agreement while also searching for expansion schools. The three AAC schools going west would likely eliminate the possibility of any more Pac-12 poaching of the Mountain West (ahem: UNLV and Air Force).

It paves the way for commissioner Gloria Nevarez to rebuild the league with the likes of UTEP, New Mexico State and perhaps FCS programs such as Tarleton State in Texas or those in the Dakotas (most notably North Dakota State).

The Mountain West Conference presidents granted Nevarez the authority earlier this week to negotiate with expansion targets. However, from her members, she likely needs a long-term commitment to solidify the field. Why would UNLV and Air Force agree to such if a better offer might come from the Pac-12 and/or AAC?

The MWC revenue distribution is about $5-6 million — roughly two-thirds of the AAC and a fraction of the Pac-12 projections. Could the MWC distribute money unequally with more going to UNLV and Air Force under the condition they remain with the conference? Sure.

Will it work? It may not matter if one school in Tennessee decides to stay in the East.

What if Memphis does not go west?

There are plenty of reasons for Memphis not to do it.

The estimated additional travel cost for AAC schools to compete in the Pac-12 is as much as $2 million annually. There is skepticism, too, in the Pac-12’s projected media value figures. Discussions with networks are only in very early stages. These are only projections.

“It’s a risk,” said one MWC administrator. “You are gambling.”

It goes beyond TV money to TV visibility. The AAC is carried nationally in a long-term deal with ESPN. Who will the Pac-12 strike a deal with? FOX? ESPN? A streamer such as Amazon or Apple? What about The CW or TNT? These are questions worth asking if entering a league without a secured television rights package.

Another question: Does this get you closer to a power conference?

For years, Group of Five schools have jockeyed to reach the power conference level. Most recently, SMU, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and UCF made the jump to the upper ranks, where more brand power brings prestige and riches. Money and brand are never more important than now, when the House settlement case is set to usher in a revenue-sharing model likely to further divide the haves and have-nots.

For all three AAC members — Memphis, USF and Tulane — the ACC is an aspirational league to join. Within the next seven years, they may get that chance if the ACC’s big brands find a way out (a shortening of the grant of rights or a legal exit around it).

Should Memphis go west and then come back east in 2031? Or stay in the East and go further east in 2031?

However, among all of the reasons against making the move, the AAC exit fee is the biggest. The exit fee is $10 million and requires its members to give a 27-month notice of departure. Here’s the catch: If a school leaves before 27 months, the fee increases to a negotiated amount.

There is a precedent set. SMU agreed to pay a $25 million fee, multiple sources told Yahoo Sports.

Is that something the Pac-12 can cover?

The conference has more than $100 million in new revenues due to it through the implosion of the league — bowl contracts, CFP distribution and NCAA tournament units — but it is using many of those funds for operational purposes, Pac-12 officials have said.

USF has its own reason to be against a move that would take them, quite literally, across the country. The distance from Tampa to Pullman, Washington, is nearly 3,000 miles. And Tulane has its own academic prowess and reputation to consider.

If Memphis does stay in the East, it could severely disable the MWC. The Pac-12 is likely to turn attention to UNLV, Air Force and Utah State, three programs that have or will soon see the league’s presentation to expansion members.

And there’s UTSA as well. Remember how UTSA’s situation is financially different from those others in the AAC? As a new member of the league, the Roadrunners are still receiving a partial share of about $3-4 million in annual distribution.

And what about Rice? The Owls, also new to the AAC and receiving a partial share, are attractive from an academic perspective for Pac-12 university presidents who believe that eventually (maybe in 2031?) Stanford and Cal will return to their league. Wishful thinking? Probably.

But before any of this happens, before all of it happens, before Air Force makes its decision, before the Pac-12 sends formal invitations, perhaps even before the MWC adds its own members, a decision rests with one university in West Tennessee.

Time is of the essence, too.

The Pac-12 is itching to secure its new expansion members. The Mountain West is hurriedly attempting to lock up its existing schools. And the American wants to know an answer to the vexing question.

Are you going West?