Great Danielle DiMartino Booth Interview on Flows, Jobs, Recession, Stocks

At the Rule Symposium, Kitco’s Jeremy Szafron interviews Danielle DiMartino Booth. Watch the interview.

Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, interviews Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, at the Rick Rule Symposium in Boca Raton.

Booth discusses Powell’s delayed rate cuts, the looming consumer debt crisis, rising unemployment, the rise in bankruptcy filings, the unprecedented levels of non-mortgage debt among U.S. households, when the stock market might take a hit, and deficit spending no matter who wins the election.

It’s a great interview. Booth thinks a recession is underway. So do I but she called it first. Out timing differs, not the outcome.

Recession When?

I think a recession started in May or June and I have seen little to change my mind.

For discussion, please see Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When

The Fed’s Beige Book solidifies the recession view.

Note that 5 out of 12 Fed Districts Show Flat or Declining Economic Growth

The Progression

• From Modest Growth to Slight or Flat (2)
• From Slight Growth to Flat to Decline (5)
• From Flat to Decline (3)
• From Already Declining to Worsening (2)

This looks very recessionary because it is very recessionary. I think within 2-3 months a majority will be in decline.

Recession won’t start then. It’s already started.