Holiday online shopping forecast: more mobile, more AI and big discounts

(TND) — Big discounts and the continued growth of mobile shopping are expected to fuel $240.8 billion in online sales this holiday season, Adobe said this week.

Adobe’s online holiday shopping forecast calls for 8.4% growth year-over-year.

Shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a new milestone, jumping 12.8% from last year for an estimated $128.1 billion this holiday season.

Adobe expects Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the year. And the deepest discounts, up to 30% off, are expected to hit during Cyber Week.

Adobe’s holiday shopping forecast, based on an analysis of a trillion visits to online retail sites, includes 18 product categories such as electronics and toys.

Discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 30% off the listed price (vs. 31% in 2023) while discounts for toys are set to hit 27% (vs. 28%), according to Adobe.

Record high discounts are expected for TVs at 24% and sporting goods at 20%.

Other categories with notable discounts include apparel at 23%, computers at 23%, furniture at 19% and appliances at 18%.

“The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years, where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of discounts that has allowed shoppers to manage their budgets in different ways,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst for Adobe Digital Insights, said in a news release. “These discounting patterns are driving material changes in shopping behavior, with certain consumers now trading up to goods that were previously higher-priced and propelling growth for U.S. retailers.”

More shoppers are expected to use a buy now, pay later method, with Adobe forecasting an 11.4% annual increase.

Social media influencers are driving people to shop 10 times more compared to social media overall.

And artificial intelligence will continue to be more a part of holiday shopping.

Traffic to retail sites from generative AI-powered chatbots has doubled so far this year, Adobe said.