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Holiday shopping 2024: Why experts say spending will reach a record $902 per person

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Holiday shopping 2024: Why experts say spending will reach a record 2 per person

Business has already picked up for some local shops. But will it keep up this way? Here’s what experts and local retailers say.

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  • Holiday spending in 2024 is projected to hit a new high of $902 per person, driven by increased confidence in the economy.
  • Factors influencing spending include anticipated earnings growth, low unemployment rates, and positive consumer sentiment.
  • While the impact of the 2024 election on spending remains unclear, early observations suggest a potential uptick following the election.
  • Many consumers are choosing to shop at local and small businesses for unique and personalized gifts.
  • Experts note that consumers are starting their holiday shopping earlier, possibly to avoid crowds, manage budgets, or capitalize on early deals.

This year, holiday spending is expected to reach a record $902 per person on average, according to the National Retail Federation.

The number comes from a recent consumer survey conducted by Proper Insights & Analytics, and it’s about $25 more per person than last year’s figure and $16 more than the previous record in 2019. It’s the price tag consumers are expected to spend on a mixture of gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items.

But how exactly do experts gauge these trends or land on these numbers?

Bryan Cutsinger, assistant professor of economics at the Florida Atlantic University College of Business, says that, generally, they don’t release their approach — they have some type of proprietary model that is not made publicly available.

If it were up to him, Cutsinger would take a look at the relationship between fourth-quarter spending and spending throughout the rest of the year in past years, he said. Earnings play a role, too.

“In October, people expected that their earnings were going to grow by about 2.8%,” Cutsinger said, referencing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. “How much people spend depends on whether they think they’re going to have higher earnings in the future or lower earnings.”

It also depends on consumers’ potential of losing their jobs within the next year — a number that’s currently down, Custinger said.

“People are feeling much more confident,” he said. “If you thought that there was a good probability you’re going to lose your job in January, you’re probably not going to spend a lot during the holiday season. So, on that front, things are looking good as well.”

The consumer survey also suggested that people expect their household income to rise by about 3% and their household spending to rise by about 5% over the next year, Cutsinger said.

“Consumer sentiment seems to be high going into the holiday season,” he said. “One big caveat I’m going to give here is that the election results can clearly affect consumer sentiment.”

Does the presidential election result affect holiday shopping habits?

While this may be true, it’s still too early to tell how much the 2024 presidential election has affected consumer spending, given that most consumer expectation data out today was collected before the November election.

One local retailer has noticed business pick up after shoppers cast their ballots.

“I think a lot of people were waiting for the elections to be over,” Mavis Benson, who owns Avalon Gallery in Delray Beach, said. “It seems like after that is when things have picked up a bit. So it’s been a good week for us. If it continues like this through the holidays, I’ll be extremely happy.”

Benson has owned the gallery on East Atlantic Avenue for more than 25 years with her husband, John Terry. They sell a collection of American art, crafts, jewelry and gifts, ranging from occasions such as housewarmings, weddings and bridal showers.

While they don’t specifically have holiday specials, Benson said, as a small mom-and-pop shop they’re mindful of the competition that comes with online shopping and they price their items fairly.

“We tell everybody, on some items, there’s a little bit of wiggle room in there that we can work with,” Benson said. “If we know there’s wiggle room, even if they don’t ask, we give it to them.”

As the holidays approach, Benson is looking forward to the Delray Beach Christmas Tree Lighting and Yuletide Street Festival on Dec. 3. The event stretches across Atlantic Avenue from Swinton Avenue to Federal Highway, which closes all night to vehicle traffic for holiday pop-ups and activities.

The Avalon Gallery is one of Delray’s treasured legacy businesses that shoppers are encouraged by the city to visit during Small Business Saturday, on Nov. 30. Others include the Delray Camera Shop, South Ocean Beach Shop, Blue Gallery, Periwinkle and Kokonuts. Of the city’s more than 125 retailers, 96% are designated small, independent businesses.

“Our long-established small businesses truly embody the spirit of our downtown,” said Laura Simon, executive director of the Delray Beach Downtown Development Authority. “As the city grows and attracts thousands of new visitors each year, these businesses remind us of our roots and the soul of Downtown Delray Beach.”

Many consumers are turning to local, small businesses for holiday shopping

Meanwhile, The Mall at Wellington Green has welcomed three new athletic stores: Boathouse, a Canadian retailer known as BH2.0; Galtsand, an American athletic apparel store; and Yuly360, a woman-owned sportswear brand. 

Foot traffic at the western Palm Beach County mall remains slightly lower than pre-pandemic levels, but Julie Schalm, the mall’s new marketing manager, hopes shoppers seeking to buy personalized and “thoughtful” gifts will drive up in-person shopping.

“So many people are turning to local, small businesses for unique and really customizable gifts,” Schalm said, such as Inspire Me Bracelets, where clients assemble their own jewelry pieces engraved with inspiring messages. 

The Mall at Wellington Green has more than 60 small businesses, including: Ella Bella, owned by a mother-and-daughter duo that make organic scrubs, soaps and lotions; Lifetime Kitchen, opened last year by a couple that offers Japanese knives, Italian espresso makers and Dolce & Gabbana cookware; and Palm Beach Autographs, owned by two local brothers who sell sports memorabilia.

And at The Gardens Mall in Palm Beach Gardens, workers are confident the mall’s lineup of stores and restaurants will fare well this holiday season.

“It’s clear that our guests are starting their holiday shopping earlier this year, diving into the season by putting up decorations and enjoying holiday shopping traditions,” Whitney Pettis Jester, the mall’s director of marketing and merchant relations, wrote in a prepared statement. “Retail forecasts for in-person shopping at malls look very positive, and from what we’ve seen so far, we anticipate a fantastic season ahead.”

As of mid-November, holiday shopping already is well underway.

“A large part of consumers have already started shopping, with two out of every five consumers beginning their holiday list by November 1,” said Amanda Bevis, a spokeswoman with the Florida Retail Federation. “We’re expecting some record-breaking spending this year, which is an increase over last year, but also brings us back to pre-pandemic spending for the holiday season.”

The earlier shopping, Bevis said, can be driven by a couple of things, such as shoppers hoping to avoid crowds or spread out their spending over a longer period of time.

“But, of course, there’s some great deals at Florida retail stores that are just too good to pass up,” Bevis said. “So, sometimes they’re taking advantage of those deals early on in the season.”

Palm Beach Post Staff Reporters Valentina Palm and Maya Washburn contributed to this report.

Jasmine Fernández is a journalist covering Delray Beach and Boca Raton for The Palm Beach Post. You can reach her at jfernandez@pbpost.com and follow her on X (formerly Twitter) at @jasminefernandz. Help support our work. Subscribe today.

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