Holiday Travel Chaos Looms As Volatile Weather Threatens The Country

As millions of Americans finalize their holiday travel plans, an unprecedented weather system threatens to upend holiday logistics across multiple regions. The historic bomb cyclone, which has already claimed two lives, downed trees, and triggered widespread power outages in the Pacific Northwest, now presents a complex challenge for travelers across the country. This weather system, along with other major weather events, will challenge transportation departments, as well as aviation and airport managers.

Record Numbers Planning Holiday Travel

Record levels of travel are expected for Thanksgiving beginning this Tuesday before the holiday. More than 80 million Americans plan to travel by car and airplane this year, with air travel up two percent over last year. Millions of others will travel via train, bus, and even cruise ship, where bookings are up 20 percent compared to last Thanksgiving. With this many people planning to travel, the weather forecast presents equally daunting challenges.

Bomb Cyclone Root of Many Potential Issues

The confluence of this recent bomb cyclone with an atmospheric river system in the Pacific Northwest sets up a particularly unsettled scenario in that region of the country and moving eastward. The bomb cyclone brought wind speeds of over 100 mph near Seattle and gusts up to 80 mph in Northern California with winter snow warnings in the Sierra Nevadas, seeing snow conditions make mountain travel nearly impossible.

The weekend may just continue the active pattern, and the days leading up to the Thursday holiday could still see travel disrupted by the weather. The atmospheric river that brought the bomb cyclone to the Northwest region of the country may bring a new storm that could impact travelers, bringing coastal rain and mountain snow a bit farther south than last week. Depending on this storm’s timing, it could impact the rest of the country as it makes its way eastward.

The situation is further complicated by a separate weather front along the Gulf Coast, riding the remnants of Tropical Storm Sara. What makes this system particularly challenging is its persistence. Weather service forecasters indicate that a second, albeit weaker, bomb cyclone could develop off the West Coast by Friday. This pattern suggests that even as the initial system weakens, travel disruptions could extend well into the holiday weekend, and we will also have to watch the remnants of these storms coming together along the East Coast, bringing challenges to travelers in that area as well.

Predictive Weather Technologies for Ground, Air Travel

This type of weather volatility puts meteorologists and others on alert to ensure that travel happens smoothly and safely, whether on the road or in the air.

Keeping roads safe during these early-season ice or snow events can be challenging for transportation agencies. Hyperlocal road forecasts are particularly beneficial in early-season weather events because of consistent freezing along the road network. Often in November and December, the subsurface temperatures will keep pavement temperatures warm and create icy conditions when met with colder air and surface temperatures. At night, when temperatures cool, or even when environmental factors such as tall buildings, vegetation, or valleys impact roads, the road can ice in certain sections. Using hyperlocal weather forecasts to inform decision-making ensures that transportation agencies are prepared for cold weather, which can come quickly, as we have already seen this autumn.

Resource planning is also important for airport operations. Much like the transportation agencies, airport operations teams need to prepare for the inevitable extreme weather. The cold weather presents many challenges, especially when layered on top of the record travel that will happen in the coming weeks. Airports are checking to ensure deicing solution storage is accessible and the right supply level is on hand in the right locations. Operations leaders are also looking at forecasts and working to provide extra crews, and contractors are on call for snow-clearing and deicing efforts if needed.

Whether traveling by car or air, those working to make travel safe and efficient will monitor weather conditions and make real-time decisions to ensure the routes are as efficient as possible. Thanksgiving weekend is just the start of the winter season, and this early-season volatility may bring some more unexpected weather. Those tasked with keeping the public safe while traveling will closely monitor the forecast as we head into winter.