Houston Astros 2024 offseason preview: Can the Astros keep their window of contention open for 2025?

Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Houston Astros, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.

Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for the Twins, Mariners, Cubs and more?

Postseason outcome

The Astros, improbably, were the first team eliminated from the 2024 postseason. The Detroit Tigers swept them 2-0 in the wild-card round behind a dominant performance from Tarik Skubal in Game 1 and a scrappy comeback in a back-and-forth Game 2. Houston’s remarkable string of seven consecutive ALCS appearances is over.

The wild-card loss can be mostly blamed on Houston’s offense, which tallied three runs in two games. The top two hitters in the lineup, Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker, each reached base just once. The bullpen also deserves some of the blame, as Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader were unable to protect a 2-1 eighth-inning lead in Game 2.

Things that went right

The Astros won the AL West for the fourth season in a row and the seventh time in the past eight years. It wasn’t a smooth ride to the top, as Houston started slowly and sat a game behind Seattle at the All-Star break. But the two teams moved in opposite directions over the second half, and the Astros mostly cruised in September.

The club was led by its pitching staff, which ranked sixth in baseball with a 3.74 ERA. Framber Valdez continued to be one of baseball’s steadiest starters and led the Astros in innings and wins. Hunter Brown recovered from a disappointing rookie year to lead the team in strikeouts and post solid ratios (3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). And Ronel Blanco was one of baseball’s biggest surprises. The 31-year-old won the fifth rotation spot at the end of spring training and finished the season fourth in the majors in ERA. The bullpen, led by closer Josh Hader and setup men Bryan Abreu, Tayler Scott and Ryan Pressly, was even more effective than the rotation.

Yordan Alvarez continued to be the driving force on offense. The 27-year-old placed no lower than sixth in baseball in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He was supported by leadoff man Jose Altuve, who experienced some decline but still hit .295 and was a 20-20 player. Kyle Tucker was also a dominant force (.993 OPS), despite missing three months due to a fractured shin.

Things that went wrong

The team’s run production was barely better than average, as a few players let the club down. Jose Abreu regressed even further after a notable decline in 2023. The organization tried everything, including a May stint in the minors, before giving up and releasing Abreu in June. Jon Singleton deserves credit for plugging the hole at first base, but he didn’t make much of an offensive impact. Chas McCormick was an even bigger disappointment than Abreu, as he followed his breakout 2023 by struggling mightily at the plate (.576 OPS), spending time in the minors and enduring two IL stints.

Although the rotation had some standouts, it also had some major disappointments. Cristian Javier entered 2024 hoping to bounce back from a disappointing season, but he lasted just seven starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. José Urquidy didn’t make any starts before being met with the same fate. And the team didn’t get what it expected from Justin Verlander, who was limited by injuries to 17 starts and wasn’t effective even when healthy (5.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), to the point that Verlander was left off the Astros’ wild-card roster.

Offseason plans

Astros general manager Dana Brown is tasked with extending even further the window of this perennial contender. It won’t be easy.

The infield is set at three spots, with Yainer Diaz behind the plate, Altuve at second base and Jeremy Peña at shortstop. Things are completely unsettled at the corners, with third baseman Alex Bregman heading to free agency and Singleton providing subpar production at first. Mauricio Dubón could help to patch the holes, but he is not effective at the plate and is more valuable in a utility role.

Brown could get away without addressing the outfield, but he would need a bit of luck on his side. Tucker provides terrific production as the right fielder, and though center fielder Jake Meyers is a marginal offensive player, he is one of baseball’s best defensive players at a premium position. The gamble for Brown would be to leave McCormick as the left-field starter in hopes that he can recapture his 2023 form.

There are fewer holes in the rotation, as Valdez, Blanco, Brown and Spencer Arrighetti will occupy four of the five spots. Luis Garcia could be the fifth starter, as he returns from 2023 Tommy John surgery, with J.P. France and Lance McCullers Jr. other contenders returning from injury. The relief corps is also in great shape, as Hader, Scott, Pressly and Abreu should all return for 2025.

Overall, the Astros have been big spenders in recent seasons and will likely continue to open their wallets for quality free agents. After all, this lineup needs at least two new members, and the prospect pool isn’t strong enough to acquire those players in trades. Bringing Bregman back would certainly be a popular move, but he comes with long-term concerns after his on-base skills declined this year.

Prospects on the horizon

The Astros’ farm system is as bad as you would expect for a team that has been in “win-now” mode for almost a decade. MLB Pipeline ranked Houston’s prospect pool as the worst in baseball during its August update. Still, there are a couple of players who could help the team next year.

Jacob Melton has reached Triple-A and could fix a glaring hole in the outfield. The 24-year-old has plus speed and can play all three outfield spots. His challenge will be reaching base regularly once he gets an opportunity in Houston, but he could be a nice spark plug at the bottom of the lineup.

Zach Dezenzo had a cup of coffee with the Astros this year (62 at-bats), and though he didn’t make much of an impact, he could be a factor at either corner infield spot next year, depending on how those positions are addressed in the offseason. Dezenzo has flashed an intriguing blend of speed, power and on-base ability in the minors.

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Goals for 2025

The Astros have won two World Series titles in the past eight years and will continue to press for a third championship. The roster is not overflowing with ascending players, but management has been able to continue winning while shifting the foundation to two superstars who are in their primes in Alvarez and Tucker. This is a team with obvious holes (1B, 3B, LF), but it also has the star power that many contenders lack, which gives the Astros the potential to address their weaknesses and enter 2025 with another loaded roster.

Fantasy focus

Several Houston players will be early round draft picks. Tucker is an obvious first-round option, while Alvarez belongs in the first round of points leagues and the second round of roto formats. Altuve is past his prime but still good enough to be selected in Rounds 3-5. Diaz is one of the few catchers to make significant fantasy contributions, which will cause him to be selected in the middle rounds.

Valdez will be the first Houston hurler off the board, as some managers will view him as a fantasy ace. Hader will be among the most coveted closers, while Blanco and Brown will be valuable middle-round options. Finally, Arrighetti will be an exciting late-round pick on the basis of his swing-and-miss skills.