How Hurricanes Milton And Helene Will Impact U.S. Jobs

The recent hurricanes Helene and Milton, which struck the United States in late September and early October, have left a trail of destruction that extends beyond the immediate devastation of lives and property.

These powerful storms are now poised to significantly reshape the U.S. job market, with their effects rippling through various sectors of the economy.

As the nation grapples with the aftermath, the hurricanes’ impact is likely to complicate upcoming employment data collection and reporting, which directly influence policy decisions.

Catastrophic events can deal a severe blow to the labor market by triggering immediate jobs losses, disrupting business operations and causing downturns across industries. The process of bouncing back from these setbacks demands considerable resources and time, potentially altering the employment landscape for years.

The immediate aftermath often shows a rise in temporary layoffs and unemployment claims, with a complex recovery path that involves both job creation in rebuilding and long-term economic adjustments.

Prior to Hurricane Milton’s arrival, Oxford Economics researchers estimated that the storm’s trajectory encompassed areas representing approximately 2.8% of the U.S.’ gross domestic product. Their analysis suggested that a Category 5 hurricane could potentially decrease the fourth-quarter’s annualized GDP growth rate by 0.14 percentage points, reducing it from the projected 2.3% to under 2.2%. However, Milton weakened to a Category 3 storm before it hit Florida.

The impact of Hurricane Helene is expected to cause a reduction of 40,000 to 50,000 jobs in October’s nonfarm payroll figures, with Hurricane Milton likely to further exacerbate the employment situation, Business Insider reported.

Unemployment Claims

Recent data published by the U.S. Department of Labor revealed a rip-roaring surge in initial unemployment claims, with 258,000 new filings reported in the first week of October.

This represents a substantial increase of 33,000 claims compared to the previous week, largely attributed to the impact of Hurricane Helene on employment in Southeastern states, particularly Florida and North Carolina.

Economic analysts anticipate ongoing labor market challenges in the coming months, with the potential for further complications as the effects of Hurricane Milton continue to unfold.

The storm’s impact is likely to compound existing issues, leading to job losses and market distortions. Areas directly affected by the hurricane may experience sharp increases in unemployment as businesses temporarily cease operations due to physical damage or infrastructure failures.

Recovery Efforts

The devastation incurred by the hurricanes are likely to lead to a rise in job opportunities within industries focused on reconstruction and recovery efforts.

As communities begin to rebuild, construction, disaster relief and infrastructure repair industries are expected to see an uptick in demand for workers. This shift in the labor market could provide a much-needed boost to local economies, offering new prospects for those displaced by the storms and potentially offsetting some of the initial job losses.

The economic impact of hurricanes is substantially mitigated by subsequent reconstruction activities. According to data from Implan, an economic analysis firm, the aftermath of a single hurricane can indirectly create close to 248,000 jobs, produce over $17 billion in wages and add more than $30 billion to the GDP.

The economic ripple effect is significant, with every dollar invested in hurricane-related repairs generating an additional $1.72 across various sectors of the economy, including retail, housing, banking and oil-refining industries.

However, this recovery phase might not immediately offset the initial job losses, leading to overall negative employment figures in the short term.

Moreover, while certain sectors may experience a short-term upswing in activity, other industries crucial to the local economy face severe setbacks. Tourism, retail and hospitality sectors typically bear the brunt of these natural disasters, leading to significant job losses. This is particularly evident in states like Florida, where the tourism industry plays a vital role in the economy. The disruption caused by hurricanes can result in a sharp decline in visitor numbers, directly affecting employment opportunities in these tourism-dependent sectors.

The Labor Department announced on Thursday the approval of an initial emergency grant of up to $10 million for North Carolina to aid in Hurricane Helene recovery efforts. This funding will support disaster-relief employment and training programs in 25 counties severely impacted by the storm.

“The Employment and Training Administration is committed to ensuring workers in North Carolina affected by Hurricane Helene have access to grant funding and assistance,” said assistant secretary for employment and training José Javier Rodríguez. “This Dislocated Worker Grant provides critical support by providing jobs to affected workers while helping North Carolina in its recovery efforts.”

The Insurance Crisis

As property owners grapple with skyrocketing insurance rates or complete lack of coverage, businesses face difficult decisions about rebuilding or scaling back operations.

This uncertainty may cast a long shadow over future job growth, with some companies perhaps considering relocation and new enterprises hesitating to establish themselves in hurricane-prone regions. Moreover, the workforce could be in flux, as employees may contemplate moving away from vulnerable areas, potentially triggering a demographic shift.

Employment Data Distortion

The recent hurricanes are expected to skew forthcoming economic indicators, with a particular impact on the October jobs report. Individuals affected by the storms who are temporarily out of work or facing business disruptions may be classified as unemployed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consequently, the November jobs report could show unusually low employment figures, reflecting the job market disturbances caused by these natural disasters.

This situation may complicate efforts to accurately assess the true condition of the labor market. Survey response difficulties in storm-affected regions could potentially lead to an underestimation of actual employment levels.

Furthermore, these weather-related disruptions are likely to influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, whose district encompasses Florida, Georgia, and portions of Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi, said at a luncheon on Tuesday that he is vigilantly observing the economic consequences of the recent hurricanes.

The impact of these natural disasters introduces additional challenges for the central bank in crafting suitable monetary policies to address these unexpected economic disruptions. Bostic noted that the hurricanes’ economic repercussions could extend beyond six months, necessitating the development of an appropriate policy approach by the Fed to address these prolonged effects.