President-elect Donald Trump’s win could significantly influence the travel industry, particularly in terms of pricing.
His proposed policies on immigration, trade and foreign relations may reshape international travel demand and costs. In addition, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and potential changes to airline regulations could directly affect airfare, hotel stays and tourism services.
“A stronger U.S. dollar would definitely make international travel cheaper for U.S. citizens by increasing their purchasing power abroad,” said Robert Hoffman at Xchange of America, a leading online money exchange platform.
Trump is likely to continue U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) recommendations from earlier this year that required more transparency in baggage price policy and refunds for significantly delayed or canceled trips.
“I don’t believe Trump would reverse baggage or refund policies, regardless of his business deregulation policies,” Hoffman said. “In this case, the consumers have loudly spoken and will continue to do so with their wallet.”
According to the DOT’s Air Travel Consumer Report, United Airlines Network reported 48,366 mishandled bags during August alone.
“These are consumers who have landed without clothing, footwear, personal care items, and should be compensated for this extreme inconvenience,” Hoffman said. “Imagine touching down in Helsinki, Finland at this time of year at 27 degrees Fahrenheit and your $200 snow boots and $500 Helly Hanson ski suit have been lost by the airline.”
Hoffman said consumers should be protected against the additional unexpected costs, lost time and stress. “An airline credit isn’t always a fair option.”
Jesse Neugarten, CEO and founder of Dollar Flight Club, said Trump’s pro-business stance might lead to fewer regulations and a relaxed antitrust scrutiny.
“For example, Trump’s administration might be more open to approving airline mergers and partnerships, such as a revised version of the previously blocked JetBlue-Spirit merger or new iterations of partnerships like the American-JetBlue Northeast Alliance,” Neugarten said. “This could lead to reduced competition, potentially driving up prices in the long term by 10%-20%.”
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the United States produced record levels of crude oil during President Joe Biden’s administration. However, Trump’s strong stance on fossil fuels could further accelerate production growth.
“Trump’s emphasis on promoting U.S.-based fossil fuel drilling and exportation would presumably lower the cost of fuel and related travel prices for U.S. consumers,” Hoffman said. “As domestic production ramps up, supply will increase, and prices will fall.”
The possible reinstatement of multi-country, international travel bans under Trump could eliminate thousands of incoming and outgoing flights and the money they bring to the travel industry.
“It has the potential to trigger pilot and flight attendant layoffs and increased prices on all other remaining domestic and foreign flights to make up for it,” Hoffman said. “Hypothetically, of course; this is uncharted territory in terms of U.S. travel policy.”
Neugarten said President-elect Trump’s potential policies on tariffs could affect travel prices, specifically the cost of flights.
“Delta Airlines currently stocks 450 European-manufactured Airbus jets, with 200 on order,” Neugarten said. “It would be safe to assume that Delta — and any other airline — importing multi-million dollar’s worth of overseas-manufactured aircraft will need to increase flight prices to offset the significant import tariffs proposed by President-elect Trump.”
Neugarten explained, “Even U.S-based Boeing wouldn’t be exempt, as imported parts and steel would be subject to tariffs, as well, depending on how the legislation is written.”
Travelers can take these proactive steps to stay ahead of potential changes in airline policies and rising travel costs. Neugarten recommended:
Checking departures from multiple airports
Expanding your travel search to find deals
Setting up price alerts or subscribing to a flight deal service
Searching for one-way instead of round-trip flights
Check if the price of your booked flight has dropped and get a refund or credit.
“Global factors could also influence travel costs under Trump when you look at resolving conflicts in regions like Ukraine or the Middle East,” Neugarten said. “It could stabilize energy prices, potentially lowering costs for travelers. However, Trump’s visa policies and trade tariffs could counteract these benefits.”
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