How the top stock fund managers of 2024 outwit their peers — and their big bets for 2025

7. Brandon Nelson: Calamos Timpani SMID Growth Fund

In a year driven by the noise of interest-rate movements and Fed policy, bottom-up stock-picking strategies like the one driving this fund thrived. The fund, comprised of small and mid-cap stocks, wrapped the year by beating its benchmark, the Russell 2500 growth index, by a wide margin.

Brandon Nelson, the senior portfolio manager, named the fund after the timpani drum, an instrument he played. Its success results from a research-driven approach focusing on company-specific fundamentals that signal a potential to maintain sustainable and under-estimated growth. The fund has heavy exposure to industrials, healthcare, and technology, which make up about 75% of its weighting.

On the quantitative side, Nelson and his team look for companies that have the potential to go from a 2% or 3% market share to 8% or higher, often driven by offering unique products or services with competitive protection. In a steady economy, where GDP growth is between 2% and 3%, the stock should also have a minimum expected revenue growth of 10% and at least 15% annual earnings-per-share growth.

The second requirement is qualitative, focusing on the management team’s ability to set and exceed Wall Street’s expectations. This means generating clean earnings reports without situations where management consistently puts up messy quarters and bad guidance and then comes up with excuses for falling short, Nelson said.

“The reason we focus on both of those is if you can find a stock where they’ve got those characteristics, the market really likes them, and they tend to reward those stocks with enhanced valuations, higher P/E multiples, higher cash flow multiples, and higher revenue multiples. Pick your favorite metric,” Nelson said. “If you can consistently show fast and underestimated growth, chances are you’re going to hold your valuation, if not, see those valuation metrics rise.”

Axon Enterprise (AXON) is a favorite of Nelson’s and a poster candidate for a stock that fits the bill of requirements. Once a taser company, it’s now a police and military hardware and software provider that uses AI to enhance its offerings, such as body camera footage that can fill incident reports — a feature Nelson believes will continue to be in high demand, including globally.

Ticker: CTOGX

Year-to-date return: 54%

Biggest holdings (as of October 31): Axon Enterprise, Sterling Infrastructure, ADMA Biologics, RadNet, FTAI Aviation, Fair Issac, AppLovin, The Descartes Systems Group, GoDaddy, Natera