Increased Consumer Confidence Will Boost Holiday Shopping

Seasonal spending from holiday shoppers in the U.S. is expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2024, driven by easing inflation rates, earlier promotions from retailers and other factors driving consumer confidence. 

According to a report from supply chain research firm Colliers, Thanksgiving spending is projected to rise by 1.8% year-over-year, followed by a 2.8% bump for Black Friday, and then finally a 3% increase for Christmas sales. This is while inflation rates in the U.S. have dipped from the year’s peak of 3.5% in March, to an average of 2.5% between August and October, marking the lowest rate the country has seen since early 2021. The rate of wage growth in the U.S. has also outpaced inflation rates in each month since January 2023, while the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose for the second straight month in November of 2024. This is all borne out in a separate survey of more than 1,000 shoppers from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), where 70% of respondents said they are currently in a similar or better financial situation than they were during the 2023 holiday season.

The ICSC’s survey found that shoppers are planning to spend an average of $706 on gifts this season, the most the ICSC has tracked since 2018. Earlier promotional deals have also led to 78% of shoppers buying their holiday gifts earlier than usual, with the number of people who expect to finish their Christmas shopping by mid-December rising by 10% compared to last year. 

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The ICSC expects brick-and-mortar retailers to see a boost as well, with 92% of shoppers saying they plan to spend money in physical stores. That comes with a caveat, though, with nearly all respondents saying they also plan to buy online from the websites of those same brick-and-mortar retailers.