Independents Preview, Analysis & Best Bets

We should just name this the Notre Dame team preview, but for those sicko college football fans (me included), we are covering both Connecticut and Massachusetts as well. All tickets cash the same, so we want to make sure you have the information to help you decide which side of the win total you want to bet on. Here is my Independents preview, analysis, and best bets!

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Independents Preview, Analysis & Best Bets

Connecticut

Jim Mora has raised the level of play on the field in East Hartford. He has won nine games in his first two years, compared to the program’s winning ten total in the previous five. They bring in a load of talent from the power five level, and with a reasonable schedule, getting to a bowl is not farfetched.

Huskies bring in loads of talent in the portal, highlighted by former four-star quarterback Nick Evers. He will have a solid offensive line and plenty of talent at receiver. They have a nice running back rotation with Edwards and Rosa, so new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis is in a good spot to improve this offense. The schedule of defenses is reasonable, but I do expect this offense to be up a few notches than recent Mora teams.

Jim Mora “fired” himself as defensive coordinator and brought in Matt Brock from Mississippi. Brock will implement a 3-3-5 scheme and try to limit explosive plays. They return 8 of their top 14 on defense, which bodes well for continuity. The schedule of offenses is solid, but with the upgrades and a new scheme, this defense should be vastly improved.

Massachusetts

If you squint, you can see the small improvements the Minutemen made this past season. They won three games, which was the most since 2018. In fact, 2023’s win total surpassed what they did in the previous four years COMBINED. They also scored their most points in a season since 2018. Progression is there for Don Brown; now, can he take one more small leap this year

This will be the last season the Minutemen are Independent. Starting in 2025, they will join the Mid-American Conference, but their schedule looks like they are already in the MAC. They begin with five of their first six games against MAC opponents, half of which are winnable if the defense can improve from horrific to good and if their offense can become more consistent.

They return Taisun Phommachanh at quarterback, who was exciting but too inconsistent. He finished with a QBR under 40, but reports suggest he has improved and is poised for a good year with the upgraded talent around him. Former top-50 player Frank Ladson comes in, and if he hits his ceiling, watch out for that connection.

Although they lost 1,000-yard rusher Kayron Adams, what they did in the portal at receiver outside of Ladson should improve this unit. The offense has promise, but this defense needed prayer a year ago. They got shredded on the ground, so much so that teams did not need to throw the ball.

They brought in a few key pieces in the portal, including All-Ivy linebacker Mackin Ayers, who should help the rush defense. They were a high-blitzing team last year but rarely caused havoc. Dialing it down a bit could be beneficial, and if they can just be bad and not horrible, the Minutemen could make another one or two-win improvement.

Notre Dame

Offense

Year three for the Irish under Marcus Freeman should be their best yet. Expanded playoffs put them in a position to make some noise. As it has been for every Freeman team, they have another new quarterback under center. Riley Leonard comes over from Duke after only playing in seven games.

Along with some offensive line questions, Leonard is the biggest wild card. He is coming off two ankle surgeries this summer, and I’m no doctor, but that seems like a big deal. You can usually pencil in a good offensive line for the Irish, but that is not the case this year.

Losing Blake Fisher and Joe Alt puts a lot of pressure on Leonard’s blind side. Two starters do return, but how fast can they adjust and develop continuity with yet another unfamiliar quarterback under center?

The skill position talent has upgraded, especially at receiver. They bring in 1000-yard weapon Kris Mitchell (FIU) and Beaux Collins (Clemson) to an already deep room.

The run game will be by committee, but when healthy, Leonard adds another level to that part of the offense. Mike Denbrock comes over from LSU to help with explosiveness and creativity. He does not have the three first-round picks on this offense, but I expect this offense to be even better.

Defense

Fewer questions on this side of the ball. They have stars at every level and multiple in the secondary. The schedule of offenses they face falls right into their strengths. There are two teams that will be able to challenge them in the trenches, one of those (Florida St) will be at home. Texas A&M is the other team but getting them early while they are an unfinished product is a positive, even if it is on the road.

The pass rush will need a star to emerge. Howard Cross and Rylie Mills are two candidates who can take the front to another level. It helps when you have an elite secondary behind you that finished in the top five in passing success rate allowed. If that defensive front can constantly get pressure and cause havoc, you are looking at one of the elite defenses in the country.

Best Bet

Jim Mora may not have the five stars they have on the basketball court in Storrs, but he’s doing a damn good job with what he has. Their win total sits at 4.5 but I think going bowling should be on the mind of the Huskies.

Their schedule breaks perfectly for them – getting their tough games on the road, and the coin flips at home. Merrimack is a win, and if we factor in the power-five road losses, we sit at 1-3. Going 4-4 in their remaining eight is reasonable. The offense is going to catch people by surprise, and the new defensive scheme should improve that unit as well.

Mora’s taking his hands off the defense could be a blessing in disguise, as he can focus more on overall game planning and situational tactics. There is no offense on the schedule outside of the power five teams, which should be a huge issue. The front should hold up fine, and all they have to be is decent and not put the offense in bad situations.

As you can tell, I am very bullish on this Huskies team. So much so that if you can find an alt 5.5, I would lock that in. The schedule sets up great, and there are upgrades all over the offense and a new scheme on defense. I’m all in.

Uconn OVER 4.5 & 5.5