Inflation is ‘both a headwind and tailwind’ for holiday shopping

As the holidays are right around the corner, retail sales are likely to increase between 2.3% and 3.3% from 2023, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast. Deloitte Consulting retail and consumer products leader Michael Jeschke joins Wealth! to break down the outlook for holiday season spending and his top tips for securing deals.

“What we’re forecasting is a more normal return to growth and a moderated return to growth, as opposed to what you’ve seen over the last few years. So when we look at our economic forecast, we’re looking at… the 2.3 to 3.3% growth. That’s very much in line with what we’ve seen historically over the last 10 to 15 years. And that’s where we think we’re going to be returning to,” Jeschke tells Yahoo Finance.

He believes that retailers with omnichannel approaches will likely outperform this holiday season, as they meeting “consumers where they are.” In addition, he expects consumers to see discounting, explaining, “It really relates to what’s been happening with prices over the last few years. You know, inflation has been up and has driven prices up. It’s come down. So inflation then turns into both a headwind and a tailwind for us.”

Jeschke continues, “On the fact that it’s come down, it gives more availability to spend. And so the consumer is going to be able to continue to buy. On the other side of it, the prices have driven up. So some of the categories that get into more discretionary spend are going to still be tougher spends. That all relates to a lot of promotional environment, a lot of seeking value and convenience and retailers really chasing that demand for the year.”

As wishlists come together, Jeschke encourages shopping early for deals and “take advantage of all the investments that have been made in both the omnichannel, the online and the physical retail.” He also notes that loyalty programs will continue to increase, which all customers should take advantage of.

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This post was written by Melanie Riehl