Investors in Helloworld Travel (ASX:HLO) have unfortunately lost 53% over the last five years

Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But along the way some stocks are going to perform badly. For example, after five long years the Helloworld Travel Limited (ASX:HLO) share price is a whole 61% lower. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 34% in the last year. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 19% in a month. This could be related to the recent financial results – you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

Now let’s have a look at the company’s fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

See our latest analysis for Helloworld Travel

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Helloworld Travel became profitable within the last five years. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it’s counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

The most recent dividend was actually lower than it was in the past, so that may have sent the share price lower. On top of that, revenue has declined by 21% per year over the half decade; that could be a red flag for some investors.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Helloworld Travel

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Helloworld Travel’s TSR for the last 5 years was -53%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

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A Different Perspective

Investors in Helloworld Travel had a tough year, with a total loss of 31% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 16%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 9% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should “buy when there is blood on the streets”, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Helloworld Travel better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we’ve discovered 1 warning sign for Helloworld Travel that you should be aware of before investing here.

Helloworld Travel is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.