Is swing state business in better shape than it was four years ago? Here’s what the data says

Five of the seven swing states in the 2024 presidential election improved their overall business climates during the Biden-Harris administration, according to CNBC’s annual America’s Top States for Business study. But that does not necessarily mean the states are better off economically, in an election cycle where the economy has consistently ranked at or near the top of voters’ concerns.

Since 2007, CNBC has been ranking all 50 states across ten categories of competitiveness to determine the best overall states in which to do business. Behind the rankings are dozens of metrics that offer a detailed picture of each state’s business and economic climate.

We compared the most recent rankings, published in July, with those from 2019 — the last full year of data before the Covid-19 pandemic, and in many ways the peak of the Trump economy. Of the seven biggest battlegrounds in terms of polling and Electoral College heft, only Nevada and Wisconsin saw their overall rankings decline.

The other 5 swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — all improved their standing.

Of course, competitiveness is complicated. It often has every bit as much, or more, to do with state policies than what is happening in Washington. Still, there are plenty of statistics for both the Trump and Harris campaigns to either claim credit for, or to run away from.

Here is how the business climates break down in the battlegrounds.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. first announced in 2020 that it would make its U.S. home in Arizona with a $12 billion investment — a big win for the Trump administration.

But Arizona’s semiconductor industry, which dates back to Motorola in the 1950s, really took off with the CHIPS and Science Act, signed into law by President Biden in 2022.

Spurred by $6.6 billion in CHIPS Act funding, TSMC has raised its Arizona investment to $65 billion, including three giant chip fabrication plants. Intel is investing $30 billion. And Arizona now ranks third behind California and Texas for semiconductor manufacturing and related facilities, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.

The state has the infrastructure to handle all this development, including one of the nation’s most reliable power grids. But it is struggling in other areas, like the rising cost of living.

Arizona’s Workforce ranking falls to No. 6, as state workforce training programs try to keep up with demand. And the state ranks No. 47 for education, with large class sizes and underfunded schools. Last year, TSMC announced it was delaying until 2025 the start of production in Arizona — which had been scheduled for this year — due to a labor shortage.

The Biden administration designated Phoenix as a Workforce Hub under another CHIPS and Science Act program designed to encourage public-private partnerships, and to nourish Arizona’s relatively dry talent pipeline.

Georgia – Infrastructure is No. 1 in the nation

Georgia‘s top ranked Infrastructure puts The Peach State at the heart of any company’s location search. The state has always been a powerhouse in that area, starting with the world’s busiest airport — Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International. The airport is getting a $45 million facelift under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

But much of Georgia’s infrastructure prowess is homegrown, including the state’s well-regarded site readiness program, Georgia Ready for Accelerated Development (GRAD), which currently offers 60 shovel-ready sites. That has helped the state become a center for electric vehicle production, with Kia, Hyundai and Rivian all locating facilities there. The Georgia Department of Economic Development boasts more than $27 billion in EV investments since 2018.

The Inflation Reduction Act, for which Vice President Kamala Harris cast the deciding vote in 2022, aims to boost the EV industry with new and extended tax credits. But Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, has claimed that the IRA has done the opposite by pushing the industry too fast and fanning a backlash against the technology.

Georgia ranks 40th for Quality of Life due to poor health care, weak worker protections, and a six-week abortion ban, which the Georgia Supreme Court reinstated this month.

Michigan – Whitmer’s rise is hitting economic headwinds

Michigan burst into the top ten in 2023, moving up to ninth place this year, following years of mediocrity.

The Wolverine State is a supremely affordable place to live, with the nation’s third lowest Cost of Living. Michigan’s Cost of Doing Business ranking is solid too, thanks in large part to generous incentives. And the state has improved its Business Friendliness ranking by cutting regulations.

All of this has made Gov. Gretchen Whitmer a rising Democratic star, and a busy surrogate for the Harris campaign. In 2022, Michigan Democrats achieved their first trifecta in state government in 40 years, winning control of both houses of the state legislature in addition to the governorship. The new majority promptly repealed Michigan’s right to work law, approved new protections against discrimination and enshrined abortion rights.

Whitmer promised that those changes would help attract workers to the state, but it has not worked out that way yet. Michigan lags the nation in attracting workers, according to Top States data.

Economic growth was sluggish last year, though there have been signs of an upturn to start 2024. The slowdown in the electric vehicle industry forced Ford Motor to scale back its plans for a $3.5 billion battery plant in Michigan. The state, in turn, scaled back the $1.7 billion in incentives it was prepared to pay, revising the package to $409 million.

Nevada – High unemployment cuts both ways

Nevada’s highest in the nation unemployment rate — 5.5% as of August — is nothing to brag about. And it can’t help the mood of the voters as Election Day approaches. But for employers, it means The Silver State has a wealth of available talent. It is one of the reason’s Nevada’s Workforce ranking has surged into the top ten in 2024.

Nevada is also attracting workers to move there, ranking No. 8 in this year’s Lightcast Talent Attraction Index, developed exclusively for CNBC. Economic growth has slowed in 2024 but it was solid last year, helping to Nevada’s Economy improve to No. 8.

But Nevada’s overall competitiveness has suffered during the Biden-Harris years. The state’s Education system is now America’s worst. At 24 students per teacher, Nevada’s class sizes are the largest in the nation, according to National Education Association data. Support for higher education is meager, and there is just one public community college. K-12 test scores rank 47th in the nation.

Nevada ranks No. 46 for Technology and Innovation, with relatively little presence in key emerging industries like semiconductors and artificial intelligence. The state did win a coveted Tech Hub last year under the CHIPS and Science Act, developing the next generation of lithium-ion batteries.

North Carolina – Utilities struggling to keep pace with growth

The Tar Heel State has always been competitive, a Top States contender nearly every year — no matter who was in the White House — since CNBC began ranking the states in 2007. This year, North Carolina came tantalizingly close to a first-ever Top States three-peat. After notching back-to-back first place finishes in 2022 and 2023, the state slipped to second place behind Virginia in 2024 by a mere three points.

While North Carolina still has America’s third-best Workforce, the fourth-best Economy, and comes in second behind North Dakota for Business Friendliness, the state fell to No. 20 for Infrastructure as its electric and water utilities struggled to keep up with growth.

That growth has also hurt North Carolina’s Cost of Living and Cost of Doing Business rankings, and more trouble could be on the way. While the state had managed to weather the insurance crisis ravaging much of the nation this year, Hurricane Helene could change that. North Carolina was among the hardest hit by the monster storm, which caused devastating floods in western parts of the state not normally associated with hurricane damage.

Pennsylvania – Making major strides in education

Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, who took office last year and made it onto the short list for Vice President Harris’ running mate in 2024, has made education — and school funding in particular — a central issue.

“We’re facing real challenges in education and with our workforce that will hold us back in the future if we don’t take action right now,” Shapiro said in his annual budget address in February.

The state has made some important strides. It now ranks third in Education, behind Virginia and Massachusetts. The state ranks ninth for higher education funding, a Shapiro priority, up from No. 34 in 2019, according to the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association.

Pennsylvania is also a relatively affordable place to live. And the fact that 144 million people live within a day’s drive improves the state’s otherwise mediocre Infrastructure ranking.

But Pennsylvania’s Economy is lackluster — ranking No. 34. Job growth is poor, and the state finishes dead last for new business formations. It probably does not help that Pennsylvania is America’s twelfth-most regulated state, according to the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.

Pennsylvania lags the nation in migration of college educated workers to the state, and it has just 18 community colleges in a state with 13 million people. Both statistics hurt the state’s Workforce ranking.

Wisconsin – America’s Dairyland is going high tech

The promise by President Trump in 2018 that “the eighth wonder of the world” was coming to southeastern Wisconsin turned into a major embarrassment for Trump and then-Gov. Scott Walker when Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn largely abandoned its plans to build a massive facility near Racine.

Walker, a Republican, promised Foxconn more than $3 billion in state and local subsidies. The failure of the deal, which was already apparent by November of 2018, may have helped cost him his re-election.

His Democratic successor, Gov. Tony Evers, renegotiated the Foxconn deal. Today, Microsoft is building data centers on the site, with a fraction of the jobs that Foxconn promised. Separately, the state won a coveted Tech Hub designation under the CHIPS and Science Act, along with a $49 million grant to develop its burgeoning bio-health sector.

Despite all of that, Wisconsin’s overall competitiveness ranking declined this year, largely due to a big drop in its Education ranking, dropping to No. 26 from No. 9 in 2019. Evers, a former state school superintendent, has been unable to head off a big decline in state support for higher education. Wisconsin finished No. 41 in that metric this year, compared to No. 4 in 2019.