Israel’s interceptor missiles are under pressure as threats loom larger

• Israel is facing an interceptor missile shortage, sources told the Financial Times.
• The head of an Israeli manufacturer of interceptor missiles said its production lines are working 24/7.
• But one national security expert told BI to view the idea that Israel is running low with caution.

Israel’s supply of interceptor missiles, crucial for defending against enemy missile attacks, is under pressure, while the threat of escalation with Iran remains a major concern, according to a report in the Financial Times.

Dana Stroul, a former senior US defense official who oversaw policy for the Middle East, told the FT that “Israel’s munitions issue is serious.”

She warned that any potential retaliation by Iran to an anticipated Israeli attack, coupled with more rocket fire from Hezbollah, could stretch the stockpile to its limits.

Stroul also noted that the US is reaching a “tipping point,” and may struggle to keep supplying Ukraine and Israel with interceptor missiles at the current pace.

Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel’s Ministry of Defence, told the FT that during an attack on October 1, ‘”there was a sense the IDF reserved some Arrow interceptors in case Iran fired its next salvo at Tel Aviv.”

He added: “It’s only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritise how they are deployed.”

According to recent Israel Defense Forces data, over 26,000 rockets, missiles, and drones were launched at Israel from multiple fronts between October 7, 2023, and last week.

This included attacks from Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.

Iran’s large-scale air assault on Israel in April was successfully defended against, according to the IDF, which claimed that 99% of the projectiles were intercepted.

But a second major barrage on October 1 was more damaging — satellite images showed several missiles hit areas around the Nevatim airbase and the IDF said there were a small number of hits in central and southern Israel.

Zvika Haimovich, a retired brigadier general who oversaw Israel’s air defenses from 2015 to 2018, told NPR in June that Israel was expending missiles faster than they could be manufactured.

“After eight months of thousands of interceptions, it’s a big challenge,” he said.

Israel’s multi-layered air defense system includes the Iron Dome, used to intercept short-range rockets, David’s Sling, designed to destroy longer-range missiles, and the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, which can intercept long-range ballistic missiles.

Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, the Israeli state-owned manufacturer of the Arrow anti-ballistic missiles, told the FT: “It is no secret that we need to replenish stocks.”

Levy said that the company’s production lines are working “24 hours, seven days a week” to meet its obligations, while emphasizing that the production of interceptor missiles takes time, “not a matter of days.”

But Ori Wertman, a research fellow at the University of South Wales, whose work focuses on Israeli national security, expressed caution about reading too much into the idea that Israel was running low on missiles.

He told Business Insider that he doubts Israel would fully exhaust its interceptor missile supply, and to approach the narrative of an Israeli interceptor missile shortage with caution.

“Using psychological warfare is part of the battlefield. Especially in the Middle East,” he said, hinting that Israel could be playing mind games with its enemies.

“When some publications in newspapers show a weakness of one side, maybe it happens to make the other side think it, and then they strike when the other side thinks they are weak,” he said, pointing to Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last month.

“Several weeks ago, just before the assassination, there were talks about a cease-fire,” he said.

Wertman also said that the Iron Dome was already selective in what it intercepts, so some missiles do get through.

“If they see that the missile, in an accuracy of almost 100%, won’t hit a civilian target or an army base, but it will fall in a vacant place, like a field, it won’t intercept it,” he told BI. “Why waste the money?”

According to estimates, the Iron Dome’s “Tamir” interceptor missiles cost about $50,000 each.

Meanwhile, amid the threat of a further escalation between Israel and Iran, the US announced this month that it would deploy a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile defense system to Israel.

The THAAD battery, which will arrive with a crew of American military personnel to operate the system, will supplement Israel’s air-defense network, the Pentagon press secretary, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, said in a statement.

The highly advanced air defense system is believed to cost between $1.96 and $3.25 billion.