Italy on path to end long World Cup absence when FIFA draws 12 European qualifying groups for 2026

On Friday, more than a decade on from that dramatic 2014 World Cup exit in Brazil, Italy sets out toward the 2026 World Cup in North America as a top-seeded nation in the 54-team draw for 12 European qualifying groups next year.

FIFA will make the unusually complex draw in Zurich to shape how 16 European teams will qualify for the first 48-team World Cup, being co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Italy has not been back to the big stage because of stunning losses in qualifying playoffs, against Sweden in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2022. Both eliminations were sealed on home fields.

“We need to be up to the task,” Italy coach Luciano Spalletti said this week. “The national team shirt is special. Think about when you go abroad and how many people follow us, some standing for hours just to see our bus pass by.”

If those people are aged under 15, they likely have no memory of ever seeing Italy play at a World Cup.

A roster in 2014 including goalkeeping great Gianluigi Buffon, a stellar defense led by Chiellini, and forward Mario Balotelli beat England but ended in the group standings below Uruguay and Costa Rica, the shocking leader.

It fit a pattern in Italy’s remarkably poor World Cup record since winning that fourth title in Berlin in 2006: two group-stage exits then two failures even to qualify.

If Spalletti’s Italy underachieved at the European Championship in June, brushed aside in Berlin by Switzerland in the round of 16, the team’s next game — a 3-1 win over France in Paris — was a standout performance in the Nations League this season.

“We’ve shown some signs that make us convinced we’ll be able to make it,” Spalletti said.

That Nations League program had a big effect on Friday’s draw, which will lack clarity with placeholder spots. Italy will not know exactly which group it is in until March.

Of the 12 top-seeded teams, eight will play Nations League quarterfinals over two legs on March 20 and 23. They include Italy vs. Germany. Winners advance to the Nations League Final Four mini-tournament in June.

Those Nations League Final Four teams cannot play World Cup qualifying games until September and must be placed Friday in a four-team qualifying group. Six groups will have four teams and six have five teams, with games starting in March.

So, Friday’s draw effectively must include two balls of “Italy or Germany,” two of “Netherlands or Spain,” two of “Croatia or France,” and two of “Denmark or Portugal.”

Clarity will come with the groups headed by the other top-seeded teams: England, Belgium, Switzerland and Austria.

The 12 group winners next November advance directly to the World Cup, and four more teams qualify through playoff brackets in March 2026.

World Cup qualifying groups draw seedings:

Pot 1: Spain, Portugal, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Croatia, England, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria.

Pot 2: Ukraine, Turkey, Sweden, Wales, Hungary, Serbia, Poland, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Norway.

Port 3: Scotland, Slovenia, Ireland, Albania, North Macedonia, Georgia, Finland, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Israel.

Pot 4: Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Belarus, Kosovo, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Cyprus, Faeroe Islands, Latvia, Lithuania.

Pot 5: Moldova, Malta, Andorra, Gibraltar, Liechtenstein, San Marino.

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