Latest bowl projections: Who benefits most from a wild weekend?

Seven ranked teams fell, including two unbeatens. The SEC race was scrambled again and the Big 12 became more muddled than ever. And we haven’t even gotten to the College Football Playoff implications after one of the wildest weekends in recent memory.

After No. 5 Indiana, No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 14 BYU, No. 15 Texas A&M, No. 16 Colorado and No. 19 Army all took it on the chin, who is left standing in the CFP and what is the fallout in the rest of the bowl picture? We’re here to sort it all out.

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day (Dec. 8).

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 — ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 12 SMU at No. 5 Ohio State

Bonagura: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Notre Dame

Bonagura: No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: Well, that looks a lot different, doesn’t it? After such a chaotic weekend of college football, the most agreeable take here is that trying to make sense of all of this in a straightforward, logical way is a fool’s errand. Comparing teams within the same conference isn’t what it used to be given the inconsistency in what teams play each other, which leaves us … here. The obvious big winner this week is Arizona State. The Sun Devils have emerged as the favorite in the Big 12 and a serious playoff contender at the perfect time. Indiana backed into a more comfortable position thanks to all the losses in the SEC, and Tennessee is a win against Vanderbilt away from sealing a playoff spot.

Schlabach: One of the craziest Saturdays in recent memory has completely altered my 12-team CFP bracket as well. After Alabama, Ole Miss, Colorado, Texas A&M and Indiana fell Saturday, I’m projecting Oregon to win the Big Ten, Miami to take the ACC, Georgia to claim the SEC and Arizona State to survive the Big 12. Boise State is my No. 4 seed as the projected Mountain West champion, although struggling Wyoming put up a good fight in the Broncos’ 17-13 win Saturday. I think there’s a chance the Sun Devils would end up being the No. 4 seed if they win the Big 12 and beat BYU or Iowa State in the Big 12 title game based on schedule strength. I also considered Ole Miss, Alabama, Clemson and South Carolina for the last two at-large bids, but went with SMU and Indiana.

CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Miami

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 8 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Georgia

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: We’re back for another week of pointing out how flawed the format is by not reseeding the teams after the first round. Oregon, in this hypothetical, would have to play Georgia in the quarterfinals, while Ohio State would get Boise State. Sure, Ohio State would have to win a game to get there, but the No. 12 seed will usually be a gimme for the No. 5 seed, and as good as Arizona State has been, it wouldn’t figure to be a serious threat to beat the Buckeyes. The whole point of seeding teams is to reward the top teams. That was a major oversight in putting the playoff together.

Schlabach: I have No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Penn State and No. 8 Texas surviving first-round games at home and advancing to the quarterfinals. Oregon’s path in my bracket seems a little easier than Kyle’s. Ohio State would face the easiest path, outside of having to play three games, with potential games against SMU and Boise State to reach the semifinals. On the other side of the bracket, I have Georgia defeating Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, where those teams played for a national championship in 1980, and Miami taking down Penn State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

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The one 3-loss SEC team Finebaum could see making the CFP

Paul Finebaum sees Georgia as the only potential 3-loss SEC team that could make it into the College Football Playoff.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Miami

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Notre Dame remains somewhat of a mystery to me. It has obviously played well since the bizarre loss to Northern Illinois, but the poor strength of schedule presents a proverbial asterisk. More than ever, it feels like Notre Dame should be forced to join a conference. Tradition went out the window a long time ago in college football, and allowing a major team to exist outside the normal confines of the sport is unserious behavior. The Irish are on the cusp of being rewarded with a premium seed despite the fact that they won’t be subjected to the physical toll or possibility of a loss in a conference title game.

Schlabach: I’m not sure Notre Dame would be seeded as high as it is if its name wasn’t Notre Dame after that ugly loss to Northern Illinois. I have the Irish falling to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs would face a semi-road game against Miami in a CFP semifinal in the Orange Bowl. I’m sure Kirby Smart is thrilled about playing for an SEC title, which seemed pretty unlikely a week ago. A first-round bye would give his team a much-needed break to heal up. I have Ohio State playing Oregon in the other semifinal in the Cotton Bowl. If the Ducks get past the Longhorns in the Rose Bowl in my bracket, they’d conceivably play Ohio State (barring a big upset) for the third time this season. It’s difficult to beat a team two times in a season, let alone three. I have Ohio State playing Georgia for the CFP national championship.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Arkansas State

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. South Florida

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: California vs. UNLV
Schlabach: California vs. UNLV

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Marshall

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. NC State

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. UConn
Schlabach: UTSA vs. South Alabama

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico

Thursday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. UConn

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. TCU
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Kansas State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Florida
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Arkansas

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Navy
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: TCU vs. Florida

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Colorado
Schlabach: Duke vs. Washington State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Missouri vs. USC
Schlabach: Texas A&M vs. USC

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Tulane vs. North Carolina
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Pittsburgh

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Minnesota

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Duke vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Iowa State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Toledo vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. San José State

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Army
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Navy

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: BYU vs. Washington State
Schlabach: BYU vs. Colorado

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Alabama

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Washington

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Illinois vs. South Carolina

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. LSU

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. LSU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Missouri

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Nebraska

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Bowling Green