Louisiana projected to add 58,300 jobs over next two years

An economic forecast projects the state of Louisiana will add 58,300 jobs over the next two years, a boost that if it comes to pass would give the state more than 2 million nonfarm jobs for the first time in its history.

But the Louisiana Economic Forecast, an annual report published by economist Loren Scott, said the outlook for the state is dependent on two major factors — the outcome of the 2024 presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s ability to pull off a “soft landing” of taming inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. Scott’s report was unveiled Tuesday at the Louisiana Business Symposium, an annual economic conference hosted by the Greater Baton Rouge Business Report.

Vice President Kamala Harris is seen as being anti-fossil fuels and focused on halting climate change, while former President Donald Trump has said he would boost oil and gas production if he returns to office.

Oil prices are assumed to hover around $80 to $82 a barrel, due to a cut in OPEC production and a drought in the Panama Canal region, which is forcing ocean going vessels to travel further. That is up from the $71.33 a price last week for a barrel of oil, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Natural gas prices are expected to rise to about $3.10 per million British thermal units by 2026, due to increased demand from liquefied natural gas exporters. Currently, the spot price of natural gas is $2.62 per million British thermal units.

A boom in industrial construction is expected to make Baton Rouge the fastest-growing metro area in the state in terms of job. The Capital Region is projected to add about 7,900 jobs next year and 8,300 in 2026. The forecast for the area is based on the $18.2 billion in projects that have been announced having a high probability of breaking ground over the next two years.

Some of the industrial projects currently underway in the region include the $7 billion “blue hydrogen” facility Air Products is building in Burnside, a $1.3 billion expansion of Shintech’s PVC pipe manufacturing facilities in Iberville and West Baton Rouge parishes, and the $750 million specialty chemical plant BASF is building in Geismar.

New Orleans is projected to add 6,200 jobs in 2025 and 6,000 jobs in 2026, thanks to $5 billion in public construction projects and potentially $37.1 billion in industrial construction activity. The city is being held back by lagging convention business and weak offshore exploration activity in the Gulf.

The forecast for Lafayette calls for an additional 1,800 jobs next year and 2,600 in 2026, thanks to good prospects from major employers such as SafeSource Direct and First Solar. Because of Acadiana’s dependency on the oil and gas industry, the region will be affected by the outcome of the election.

Shreveport-Bossier City is forecast to add 2,300 jobs in both 2025 and 2026, through gains at Fibrebond modular building manufacturer and the Live! Casino & Hotel. The region is ripe for development of data centers, because there is access to reliable electric power and it has a lot of open space. 

The backlog of LNG projects in Lake Charles has the region on track to add 3,500 jobs next year and 4,600 in 2026. The outcome of the presidential election will have a bigger impact on Lake Charles than any other Louisiana metro area, Scott said. The Biden administration sought to pause approvals of new exports, while the Department of Energy revamped the analyses used to approve LNG projects to put more weight on the fossil fuel’s possible climate impacts.

Houma-Thibodaux is projected to add 1,300 jobs in 2025 and 2026, thanks to an increase in ship building activity, maintenance and repair on offshore drilling platforms and ongoing flood protection and wetland restoration projects.

Hammond is projected to add 700 jobs in 2025 and 2026 due to growth at major employers such as North Oaks Health System and Southeastern Louisiana University.