Mark Robinson’s scandal could cost Trump North Carolina’s electoral votes — and the election

Despite Robinson’s history of polarizing comments, he easily won the state’s GOP gubernatorial primary in March. But in a bombshell CNN story published last week, the network reported that Robinson made a series of racist, antisemitic, and sexually explicit comments on a pornographic site more than a decade ago — before he was in public office.

On the site Nude Africa, Robinson describes himself as a “black NAZI!” and argues that “slavery is not bad,” among other remarks.

Robinson has denied the accusation and vowed to remain in the race. But even before the report was published, he was behind in the polls against his Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Josh Stein. Meanwhile, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race in North Carolina.

Here’s a look at how Robinson’s scandal could not only imperil Trump’s ability to win the Tar Heel State but also potentially obliterate the former president’s chances to win the general election.

The swing-state dilemma

Robinson rose to prominence in GOP circles after his forceful defense of gun rights during a 2018 address to the Greensboro City Council went viral. In his speech, he decried what he said were attempts to enact gun control, arguing that criminals would simply ignore the laws.

The speech helped pave the way for Robinson’s 2020 victory in a race for lieutenant governor, which he won by three percentage points even as Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper was reelected to a second term.

That year, Trump also won North Carolina — albeit narrowly — against now-President Joe Biden. Anchored by the support of rural conservatives, the then-president eked out a one-point victory in what has become one of the nation’s premier swing states.

Robinson’s political brand is rooted in a more confrontational Republican style, though. His biggest advantage is with social conservatives, not the sort of college-educated suburban voters who have turned away from the GOP in the Trump era.

It’s encapsulated in earlier polling. A New York Times/Siena College poll released in August showed Stein leading Robinson 49% to 39% among likely voters. A Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this month showed Stein up by 10 points (51% to 41%) among likely voters. And a recent Emerson College poll showed Stein ahead of Robinson by eight points (48% to 40%) among likely voters.

Robinson’s campaign has stumbled in the state for some time — and it’s unclear what the ramifications of the latest allegations will be for his candidacy. But state Treasurer Dale Folwell, who lost to Robinson in this year’s gubernatorial primary, last week told the News & Observer that taxpayers and donors were “getting fleeced” by the lieutenant governor.

Such a remark from a fellow statewide GOP official usually doesn’t bode well for party unity. And Trump is now caught in that web.

A tale of ‘reverse coattails’

When popular candidates are running at the top of the ticket — notably in presidential, gubernatorial, or Senate races — they often boost down-ballot candidates.

A strong candidate leading the party on the ballot can have an immeasurable impact on turnout and enthusiasm for candidates who need help getting over the finish line.

In 2020, Robinson outperformed Trump in North Carolina, but the former president also brought out voters who undoubtedly boosted the lieutenant governor in areas where he wasn’t as well known.

Now, Robinson’s latest scandal threatens Trump’s hold on a state that Harris has targeted since her campaign began in July. The vice president has reversed the slide that the party faced when Biden was the nominee, and recent polls taken in North Carolina have showed her tied with Trump or with a slight lead.

Harris’ competitiveness in the state is driven by her advantages with women, young voters, urban voters, and college-educated suburbanites. And she’s running a distinctly pro-choice campaign, in contrast to Robinson — an anti-abortion champion who also revealed last month that his wife had an abortion 30 years ago.

Pessimism over Robinson’s campaign could depress Trump’s numbers in the state, creating a “reverse coattail” effect — especially if Robinson loses by a sizable margin.

The GOP is up against a Harris campaign that’s flush with cash and has 26 field offices and over 200 paid staffers in North Carolina. The Harris campaign also released an ad seeking to tie Robinson to Trump, weaving in old footage where the ex-president said the lieutenant governor was “better than Martin Luther King.”

Democrats believe that Harris’ presence on the ballot will be able to help them in other races.

“[W]hat’s very exciting to me is that we have a lot of people that are interested in the top of the ticket, but that are also getting educated about the importance of down-ballot,” North Carolina Democratic Party chair Anderson Clayton recently told MSNBC’s Chris Hayes.

Should Harris win North Carolina and its 16 electoral votes, she’ll likely already be on her way to a national victory, given the state’s slight Republican lean in presidential races. However, although she’d clearly like to do so, Harris doesn’t have to win the state to win the election.

But North Carolina is critical for Trump. It has been a Southern anchor of support in his last two presidential runs. And the state’s penchant for close elections is a reflection of just how much Robinson’s woes could ultimately decide Trump’s political fate.

During a Saturday rally in Wilmington, Trump seemed to acknowledge that reality. Robinson was not present at the event. And the former president didn’t mention the lieutenant governor’s name.