Markets ‘giving up’ on 50bp rate cut after mixed August jobs report

Stronger odds of a 50 basis points rate cut this month spiked up after the August jobs report, then faded, indicating traders see the Federal Reserve as having little appetite to make a deep cut when rate easing starts, according to Societe Generale.

The probability on Monday was 27% of a rate cut sized at 50 basis points in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. It had jumped to ~50% on Friday after the mixed August payrolls report, from 40% on Thursday. Odds of a 25bp cut were at 73% on Monday.

“Markets are giving up on a 50bp Fed cut,” with rates traders pushing back against the idea,” Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale said, in a Monday note. Such moves have led to dollar strength (DXY), and “continued sogginess” for growth-sensitive currencies, he said. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen 0.5% since Friday through midday Monday.

“It would have been really hard for the U.S. jobs data to convince most people that we’re going to get a 50bp Fed cut this month,” Juckes said. “Employment growth was softer than expected but not disastrous, and wage growth picked up slightly,” he said. “There’s no doubt the U.S. economy is slowing, but by the same token, no reason to label it a ‘hard landing’ yet,” he said.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is due on Wednesday. Economists widely expect core CPI will increase by 0.2% M/M, and annual core CPI to move to 3.1% from 3.2%. The headline CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% M/M, and annual CPI is projected to decline to 2.6% from 2.9%.

“We will see if the CPI data change anything, but we’d need a 0.1% core monthly gain to shake the market at all,” Juckes said.

Among U.S. Dollar ETFs investors can monitor: (UUP), (USDU), and (UDN).

Dollar strength can eat into profit on sales made overseas by U.S. companies. ETFs to keep track of the S&P 500 (SP500) include (SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), and (UPRO).