Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for Week 12 of 2024 season

Chances are, if you spend a decent amount of time in those internet streets, you’ve stumbled across my friend CooterDoodle. I am almost positive that’s her given name. Anyways, Cooter is online often, tweeting up a storm with fantasy football observations and off-color jokes. She is either the best hire I have ever made or the worst. I still haven’t decided. But either way, she’s one of the writers over at Fantasy Life, and she recently tweeted to me that someone in her home league had both Taysom Hill and Jerry Jeudy on their team last week. Both sitting on their bench. I’m sure that person didn’t need those 61.72 points.

Anyways, other than Coot (I call her Coot) taking a moment to make her leaguemate feel even more shame than they probably already do, it made me think that it’s clearly that time. You know what time it is because Coot’s leaguemate isn’t the only one. Every single one of us have start/sit decisions we wish we could take back. Trades that didn’t work out in a massive way. Drafting decisions that, in hindsight, were incredibly misguided. Waiver moves that single handedly made you realize your greatest opponent was yourself.

Regrets, we’ve all had a few.

I asked my followers on X, Threads and Bluesky (where I am @MatthewBerryTMR on all of them) for their worst fantasy moves this year with visual proof of the transaction. And man did I get a ton of entries. Whatever bad moves you’ve made this year, I assure you there are many worse ones out there and you are not alone.

So yes, with my annual apologies to the band Oasis, it’s time for the 2024 edition of Don’t Look Back in Anger. As always, these are actual moves by actual managers. Here we go:

@JoeMasonwrites tells me he shares a team with a friend. The friend cut Chase Brown for Diontae Johnson. Well, former friend, writes Joe.

But don’t fret Joe. You’re not alone Chase Brown showed up a lot.

@jpscattini had an offer before the season of Chase Brown AND Malik Nabers for Jaylen Waddle. He turned it down.

But that’s just a trade that was turned down. Imagine giving up Chase Brown for free. Like…

@MarcusMurray who dropped Chase Brown for… Carston Steele.

On Bluesky, @nickolah dropped Chase Brown for Dontayvion Wicks.

@ThisBe_O dropped Chase Brown for Braelon Allen after Week 3.

@OhAightThenBruh dropped Chase Brown so he could keep… new Dallas Cowboys RB Dalvin Cook.

Much like Marcus, @SeanJ302 ALSO dropped Chase Brown for Carson Steele. But then he doubled down and also dropped Chuba Hubbard for… Samaje Perine. Ouch. Turning Chase Brown and Chuba Hubbard into Carson Steele and Samaje Perine is something for sure. But don’t fret Sean! Still not the worst I saw!

Imagine being @r/fantasyfootball over on Bluesky. Just before the season he needed to drop someone for a kicker in Week 1. He wanted to keep Adonai Mitchell. So, to pick up the kicker he dropped Jordan Mason. And yes, he also has Christian McCaffrey.

Thinking Christian McCaffrey would play Week 1 (the way the 49ers and reporting said he would!) came up a lot as well.

@GMenJay dropped Jordan Mason for Samaje Perine.

But the worst might be @DTownLander who drafted CMC No. 1 overall and then, before week one, dropped Jordan Mason for… the Jets D/ST.

That’s still not the worst move I saw. @Sp_zags showed a move by someone in his league who added Colby Parkinson after Week 4… and dropped Brock Bowers.

Meanwhile, @KyleMigerey drafted Brock Bowers but then dropped him before Week 1 for… the Bengals D/ST.

Tight ends man. They’ll crush your soul.

Just last week, @Kilbride10 needed a streamer TE. He thought about Jonnu Smith (30.1 points) or Taysom Hill (43.5 points) before settling on Mike Gesicki (0 points).

But that’s just a bad one-week decision. How about the season long ones?

Many people had a similar story as @chanodesigns who spent 80% of his FAAB in Week 1 on Isaiah Likely.

@IamMapes dropped Darnell Mooney for Cole Kmet.

And @TheValleyFF dropped Jauan Jennings to grab… Juwan Johnson.

But I don’t think I saw a move worse than this one.

Over on Bluesky, @drachenfootball is in Scott Fish Bowl, a large (like 4,000 people) charity league that is super deep (12 team leagues, 22 man rosters) that rewards return yardage. But even with that caveat it’s hard to fathom how you can sleep knowing you dropped Tyrone Tracy Jr. to pick up… Jaelon Darden, WR of the Cleveland Browns.

For the season, Darden has just 97 kick return yards (fourth most on the BROWNS!) and 226 punt return yards (third most on the Browns).

Damn.

As we head into the stretch run, hopefully you have no other regrets and make all the right moves. And if you need help with that, I’m here for you. Fantasy Football Happy Hour airs every single day on Peacock, the NFL on NBC YouTube channel and wherever you get your podcasts. Fantasy Football Pregame airs every Sunday morning from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET on Peacock and the NFL on NBC YouTube channel. And of course, you can catch me every Sunday night on Football Night in America on NBC and Peacock before the Sunday Night Football game.

Be sure to subscribe to my FREE daily fantasy football newsletter and if you’d like tools to help you win your leagues, your DFS and your bets, the FantasyLife+ package is the best in the biz.

With that, let’s get to it. Thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Here we go:

Quarterbacks I Love in Week 12

Kyler Murray at Seattle

A great matchup in Week 12 for my “Ride or Die” Kyler Murray. Since Week 4, the Seahawks are allowing 19.4 PPG to quarterbacks, and they have allowed 17-plus points to a quarterback in six of their past seven games. During that stretch, Seattle ranks bottom five in both yards per attempt and touchdown rate. But it’s not all the fault of the secondary. Seattle’s front seven doesn’t make quarterbacks uncomfortable. In fact, over the past four weeks, Seattle ranks just 22nd in pressure rate. I love Murray having time in the pocket. I also love that Murray has 20-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games. And I love that he’s healthy and rested coming off the bye. The only thing I don’t love are Kyler Murray’s pizza choices. He sampled some New York pizza during his week off and thought it could be improved with some ranch dressing. Look, I’m not here to disparage ranch dressing. But if Kyler Murray had a New York slice and it had him craving ranch, he went to the wrong New York pizza shop. Because a New York slice is perfection, no dipping sauces needed. Someone get Kyler Murray to a better pizza place the next time he’s in New York. My QB4 for the week deserves better.

Justin Herbert vs. Baltimore

Through the opening month of the season, Justin Herbert didn’t hit 13 fantasy points in a single game and was throwing the ball just 22.7 times per game. It seemed Jim Harbaugh had robbed us of an elite passer. But since then, Herbert has 31 pass attempts per game and, over his past four games, he’s posted 19.5 fantasy points or more in each one. As Jim Harbaugh would say: “Who’s got it better than us?” By the way, it would be hard for Herbert to have a better fantasy matchup this week. Baltimore has allowed at least 269 passing yards to a quarterback in eight of their 11 games this season. Plus, teams facing the Ravens average a league-high 39.5 pass attempts per game, while quarterbacks who attempt 30-plus passes against the Ravens average 22.9 PPG. Vegas expects points to be plentiful in this game, too, with the highest Over/Under of the week at 51. If you stuck with Herbert through the early-season struggles, no one’s got it better than you. Herbert is QB5 this week.

Bo Nix at Las Vegas

Since Week 5, Bo Nix has four 20-point games. Only Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts have more during that time period. And, during that same stretch, Nix is QB4 in PPG and has posted 16-plus points in six of his past seven games. That’s all great. What’s not great – not great at all, in fact – is that Nix is now getting Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration along with Jayden Daniels. Look, Bo, I already decided that Jayden is Rookie of the Year. And not just Rookie of the Year, but also Greatest Quarterback Ever. So that ship has sailed, okay? KNOCK IT OFF. Great. That’s settled. Anyway, Rookie of the Year runner-up Bo Nix has a good matchup this week against a Raiders team that, over the past four weeks, has allowed the fourth-most PPG to quarterbacks (23.6). Over the same span, the Raiders are also allowing touchdown passes at the highest rate in the league. I have Nix at QB7 in Week 12.

Others receiving votes: Since Week 6, New England is allowing touchdown passes at the second-highest rate, and four of the last six quarterbacks to face the Patriots have scored 17-plus fantasy points. Look for Tua Tagovailoa to make it five of the last seven on Sunday. … Last week, Jared Goff threw for 412 yards, including four touchdown passes, and posted a perfect passer rating. Yet he posted fewer fantasy points in Week 11 than Taysom Hill, who threw for just 18 yards and had an interception. Take THAT, passer rating formula. Anyway, Goff might even be able to outscore Hill in fantasy this week thanks to facing a Colts defense that has allowed three of the last four quarterbacks its faced to throw for at least 280 yards. For good reason, Detroit has the highest implied points total again this week and, since Week 3, Goff has only one game with fewer than two touchdown passes. … Last week, in his first start since Week 7, Anthony Richardson had season highs in passing yards, completions and completion percentage. Clearly, he learned a lot watching the Colts offense be run for three games by an elite quarterback. Of course, Richardson’s legs are what give him so much fantasy upside, and he now has multiple goal-line rushes in three of his past four completed games. Meanwhile, his Week 12 opponent, the Detroit Lions, allows the third-most YPC to quarterbacks this season at 6.5.

Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 12

Jameis Winston vs. Pittsburgh

The Steelers held Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson in check in back-to-back weeks, and now on Thursday night they get a Browns team that is, well … a Browns team. After upsetting the Ravens in Week 8, Cleveland has dropped back-to-back games by a combined score of 62-24. So, it’s no surprise that the Browns have the second-lowest implied team total this week due to their offensive struggles and the fact they have to face the Steelers defense. Pittsburgh is allowing the second-fewest PPG to quarterbacks this season (11.5), and the Steelers have yet to allow a quarterback to reach 17 fantasy points all season. And while Winston is putting up passing numbers like he always does; the Steelers have surrendered multiple touchdown passes in just two of their 10 games. Winston will also be facing T.J. Watt and friends behind a banged up offensive line. There is nothing good about this matchup for Winston on Thursday night. I have him down at QB18.

Matthew Stafford vs. Philadelphia

Matthew Stafford threw for four touchdowns last week, moving up to 10th all-time in career touchdown passes behind Matt Ryan. But I don’t think Stafford gets to ninth place this week. Why? Because Matt Ryan is 11 touchdown passes ahead of him. Throwing for 11 touchdowns in a single game is a lot. Hashtag: analysis. But it would be especially difficult against an Eagles defense that has not given up multiple touchdown passes in a game since Week 4. Philadelphia has the No. 2 ranked pass defense on the season and the top-ranked unit over the past four weeks. Stafford and the Rams’ passing game is also due for some touchdown regression. Since Week 8, every Rams touchdown has been through the air. While Stafford may be 10th all-time in passing touchdowns, he’s 17th in my Week 12 QB rankings.

Running Backs I Love in Week 12

Jahmyr Gibbs at Indianapolis

Jahmyr Gibbs has taken 17% of his rushes this season for 10 yards or more. That’s the highest rate in the league among running backs with at least 50 carries. Now he will take on a Colts team that, over the past four weeks, has allowed 14 RB carries of 10-plus yards – tied for most in the NFL. Mixing Jahmyr Gibbs with the Colts’ run defense is the equivalent of mixing … an explosive thing with … some kind of … other thing that … makes it explode … even more. Look, I’m not a chemist, okay? Just know the key takeaway here is explosiveness. Class dismissed. But, hey, before you go, I will add this: the Colts are allowing 151 scrimmage yards per game to running backs this season, and backs who have seen 12-plus touches against Indianapolis are averaging 16.5 PPG. I’ve got Gibbs at RB6 this week.

Kareem Hunt at Carolina

Carolina has given up the most rushing yards per game and the most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. Seven of the 10 backs to see 15-plus touches against Carolina have scored 17-plus fantasy points, so it’s a great matchup for Kareem Hunt, who is averaging 22.8 touches per game since Week 5. Over that same stretch, Hunt leads the league in goal-line rushes and is second in red zone touches. Of course, you can forget all of this if Isiah Pacheco returns to action this week. But if Pacheco doesn’t play, then you must remember this. You simply must. Forever. In fact, years from now, your final thoughts and final words should be this: “Kareem Hunt was RB9 in Week 12 of 2024.”

Brian Robinson Jr. vs. Dallas

Here is my analysis of Brian Robinson:

We good here? Can I move on? Ugh, you want even MORE analysis than that? Fiiiiiiine. How about this: Robinson has at least 17 touches in five of his seven completed games this season, while running backs who have seen 17-plus touches against the Cowboys this season are averaging 28.2 PPG. Five of the six RBs who got 17-plus touches against the Cowboys scored a rushing touchdown and, over the past four weeks, Dallas ranks 29th in rush defense. In conclusion, I am sticking with my original statement: I so love Brian Robinson. He’s a top 12 back this week.

Others receiving votes: Over the past four weeks, Chicago is allowing the sixth-most PPG to running backs and, over that same stretch, have allowed 125-plus scrimmage yards to backs in every game. I’m not going to make fun of Chicago and say this isn’t the ‘85 Bears run defense, because Chicago is playing against the run just as you would assume a defense full of 65-year-old men would. This week the Bears face Aaron Jones, who has a great track record against them. Dating back to 2021, he’s put up 19-plus fantasy points in five of his last six games against the Bears. … It’s now three straight games with 17-plus touches for Tyrone Tracy Jr., which is important because he’s averaging 16.6 PPG this season when he gets 15 touches or more. Tracy’s usage should only go up this week, as almost no one outside of Sean Stellato thinks the Giants’ offense should feature Tommy DeVito’s passing. Tracy also has a positive matchup on Sunday against a Bucs defense that has given up 16-plus fantasy points to a running back in each of their past five games. … Tracy’s matchup would be even better if he was playing his own team. Over the past four weeks, the Giants are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to running backs, and the Giants have allowed at least 24 points to every backfield they’ve faced during that stretch. So, I’m in on Bucky Irving, who is averaging 15.0 PPG since Week 6 and has finished as a top 20 RB in four of his past five games. … Over the past four weeks, Denver is allowing the most receiving yards per game to running backs. With Alexander Mattison and Zamir White banged up and the Raiders nearly a touchdown underdog, game script and injuries give Ameer Abdullah some value this week in deeper leagues.

Running Backs I Hate in Week 12

JK Dobbins vs. Baltimore

Jim Harbaugh giveth and Jim Harbaugh taketh away. Just as he hath giveth us Justin Herbert back, he hath taketh JK Dobbins. (In the two games since Gus Edwards returned, Dobbins has just 56% of team RB carries.) Would it be so hard to giveth us botheth, Jim? It sure would be niceth! Of course, it would also be nice if Dobbins was performing as well as he did at the start of the season, but since Week 3, he’s averaging just 3.7 YPC – fourth lowest among backs with 75-plus rushes. It’s also a bad matchup this week for Dobbins against his former team. Baltimore allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game to backs, and only 3.3 YPC to the position. There’s also this: Four of the five backs to score 15-plus fantasy points against Baltimore did it with 30-plus receiving yards, but Dobbins has just one game all season with that many receiving yards. Bad matchup, bad usage trends. It’s a brutal bye week so you likely have to start him but lower your expectations. Dobbins is barely inside my top 20 at the position this week.

D’Andre Swift vs. Minnesota

There are two things we learned about new Bears offensive coordinator Thomas Brown last week in his first game calling plays: First, his scheme was more effective than what Shane Waldron was doing. And second, he might have Roschon Johnson on his fantasy team. At the very least, Brown doesn’t have any D’Andre Swift shares. Swift saw a season-low 41% of the team’s rushes last week and his 54% snap rate was his lowest since Week 3. And it was Johnson who got 80% of the red zone rushes and two of Chicago’s three goal-line carries. By the way, Swift has seen a target share under 7% in three of his past four games. So yeah, Swift’s decrease in usage is concerning by itself. What makes it all even worse is a Week 12 matchup against a Vikings team that allows the fewest fantasy PPG to running backs.

Nick Chubb vs. Pittsburgh

Nick Chubb is both back from his injury and also definitely not back from his injury. Because this isn’t the Nick Chubb we’re used to seeing. Since returning to action, Chubb ranks dead-last among running backs in fantasy points per touch. And, in the two games since Jerome Ford returned from his injury, Chubb has just a single target and a route participation rate of only 16%. It’s hard to see this Chubb exploding against a Steelers defense that, since Week 6, has only allowed one back to run for more than 65 yards on them. In a game with the lowest Over/Under of the week (37), I am lowering my Chubb expectations. He’s just RB28.

Pass Catchers I Love in Week 12

A.J. Brown at Los Angeles Rams

Before Philadelphia’s game last week, A.J. Brown warmed up on the field with his young son. It was a great father-son moment. And, honestly, Rams defenders will do well to stay as close to Brown this week as his son did in that video. Over the past four weeks, the Rams are allowing the fifth-most PPG to wide receivers and, during the same stretch, they are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to the position. The Rams also give up the fifth-most yards per game on deep passes for the season. Meanwhile, in Brown’s six healthy games this season, he has seen more than 40% of his team’s end zone targets. I have him as WR5 this week.

Mike Evans at New York Giants

Mike Evans is thankfully back and, despite missing the last three games, he is still tied for the NFL lead with 11 end zone targets. He returns with a great matchup, too, as the Giants this season are allowing an absurd catch rate of 77% on passes of 20 air yards or more. Evans is also expected to be shadowed by struggling Giants cornerback Deonte Banks. According to my friend Mike Clay, wide receivers are averaging 16.0 PPG this season when receiving the Banks shadow. That is definitely not the scary kind of shadow. That’s the kind of shadow you lounge in on a luxurious beach resort vacation while sipping Mai Tais. Evans returns this week in a big way as my WR9.

Ladd McConkey vs. Baltimore

Not only does Ladd McConkey lead the Chargers in target share this season at 24%, but he’s also getting consistent looks, posting a target share of at least 20% in eight of his 10 games. That 20% figure is significant when facing the Ravens, as the 11 WRs who have seen a target share above 20% against Baltimore this season are averaging a massive 24.1 PPG. The Ravens have also allowed a wide receiver to go for 85-plus receiving yards against them in each of their past four games. So, I have McConkey at WR13 this week. Our Ladd is quickly growing up into a bigg boyy.

Hunter Henry at Miami

The New England dynasty is quickly fading into the past for many Patriots fans. But if they squint, if they really, really, really squint … like almost no light coming through their eyelids at all … Drake Maye and Hunter Henry can kinda … sorta … maybe look a little like that Brady and Gronk combo. No? Okay, fine. But Henry does have 12-plus fantasy points in four of Maye’s five full games this season. He also has a 21% target share in those games. I have Kirkland brand Gronk as a top 10 TE this week against a Dolphins defense that, over the past four weeks, is allowing 20.4 PPG to tight ends.

Others receiving votes: The struggling 49ers would obviously love to have Brandon Aiyuk in the lineup, but Jauan Jennings has been doing a helluva job in his place. In Jennings’ two games since returning from his own injury, he has a 35.5% target share. He’s also sixth among qualified WRs this season in fantasy points per target. I like him a lot this week against the Packers, especially considering Jaire Alexander is dealing with a knee injury. … Over the past four weeks, Seattle is allowing the most PPG to wide receivers, they’ve given up 18-plus fantasy points to a wide receiver in each one of those games, and they’re allowing the fourth-highest completion rate on deep passes. Honestly, Marvin Harrison, Jr. hasn’t had a matchup this good since playing the likes of Purdue and Rutgers. … The Colts have allowed the fifth-most yards on deep passes this season. Now they have to deal with Jameson Williams, who has a 20% target share in his two games since returning from suspension, along with a 19.1 aDOT. … I bet Josh Downs gets reasonable rates on flood insurance because he’s got a high floor. (Hey, that joke kills in my insurance adjusters fantasy league. I’m not apologizing.) But get this: Downs only has two games this season with fewer than 12 fantasy points, thanks in part to a team-high 26% target share. That high floor has a chance to be paired with a lofted ceiling this week against a Lions team that allows the most receptions and yards to the slot. … While new Bears OC Thomas Brown seemed to go away from D’Andre Swift in his first game, Rome Odunze got a team-high target share of 32%, up from 25% over the previous four games. Odunze also now has one end zone target in eight of his last nine games, as well as 38% of Chicago’s end zone targets over that stretch. … If Adam Thielen returns to action on Sunday for the first time since Week 3, he has some upside in deeper leagues. Remember, in his 18 career games with Bryce Young at quarterback, Thielen has a 24.5% target share and is averaging 11.6 PPG. … Over his past five games, Will Dissly is TE11 in PPG and has six-plus targets in four of those games. Now he has a positive fantasy matchup against a Ravens defense that is bottom five in receptions and yards allowed to tight ends this season. … Dating back to Week 8, Tampa Bay is giving up the fourth-most PPG to tight ends. That makes Theo Johnson a good TE streaming option this week. Johnson has back-to-back games with six-plus targets.

Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 12

Jordan Addison at Chicago

Chicago allows the fewest fantasy PPG to wide receivers on the season, and teams facing the Bears average the fewest wide receiver targets per game. Chicago is also tied for the third-fewest touchdowns allowed to wide receivers this season. That’s especially bad news for Jordan Addison, who is averaging 6.4 PPG in games this season in which he doesn’t score. Look, this week we are not going to see the Jordan in Chicago that America remembers. We’re going to see Jordan on the Wizards. Addison is way down at WR37 for me.

Tank Dell vs. Tennessee

This is a bad matchup. Not Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul bad, but bad. Tennessee allows the second-fewest yards per game to wide receivers, and it’s unlikely both Tank Dell and Nico Collins have productive days, as the Titans have given up 13-plus points to multiple receivers in a game only twice this season. Dell is averaging just 7.9 PPG this season with Collins in the lineup. This game also has a relatively low Over/Under at 40.5, but Houston is a heavy 8-point favorite. That suggests a low-scoring game in which Houston is run heavy to burn clock with the lead, which means I hate this matchup even more. Dell is outside my top 30 this week.

Mark Andrews at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are the only team in the NFL to not allow a touchdown to a tight end this season. You can honestly make the case that no one has hated tight ends this much since Sir-Mix-a-Lot. And get this: In games in which Isaiah Likely is active this season, Mark Andrews has a target share of only 11.6%. Since Week 3, Andrews only has two games with a route participation above 60%, and he has yet to score 10-plus fantasy points in a game this season in which he didn’t also score a touchdown. The bad season for Andrews continues in Week 12. I have him down at TE15.