Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS preview: Key matchup, how each team wins and series prediction

We’ve made it to baseball’s final four. Through two rounds of this postseason, the Dodgers and Mets have emerged from the National League to wage a cross-country battle with a World Series berth on the line.

This National League Championship Series promises plenty of fireworks, with a slate of stars led by Shohei Ohtani, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts and Pete Alonso ready to put on a show beginning in Game 1 on Sunday in Los Angeles.

Let’s break it down.

NO. 6 NEW YORK METS vs. No. 1 LOS ANGELES DODGERS

How they got here

Mets: Nobody in baseball has won more games since June 1. All the delightful bits — Pete Alonso’s pumpkin, Jose Iglesias’ music career, Grimace — somewhat overshadow that this has been a phenomenal team for going on 15 weeks.

So far in October, New York’s starting pitching has carried the day. A Mets starter has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any start. As a unit, they’ve allowed 10 runs in 37 innings, good for a 2.43 ERA. In Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS against the Phillies, Sean Manaea and José Quintana combined for just one earned run in 12 innings. This group has stepped up big-time, which is a good thing considering how relatively taxed the bullpen seems right now.

Dodgers: The expectations are always higher in L.A., as they should be, considering the payroll and star power this team carries on a yearly basis. But even facing the playoff team nobody wanted to see in the San Diego Padres, the Dodgers showed a different kind of fight and managed to come out on top in the most intense series so far this postseason.

Yes, the Dodgers got big swings throughout the series from the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández and Kiké Hernández. But the key to L.A.’s comeback against San Diego was the bullpen. Dodgers relievers held the Padres scoreless for the final 24 innings of the series. The big, bad Dodgers were on the ropes, but with newfound life, they are starting to realize just how good they are.

Key matchup

Mets pitching vs. Shohei Ohtani:

Shohei Ohtani has the ability to change any game at any time with one swing. He will be the focus of the Mets’ pitching staff throughout the NLCS. After his game-tying homer in Game 1 against the Padres, San Diego did a good job of neutralizing Ohtani, as he went 4-for-20 with 10 strikeouts the rest of the NLDS.

But there was clearly a plan of attack throughout the series, and having an elite, high-leverage arm such as Tanner Scott to face Ohtani late in games definitely helps. If New York wants to give itself a chance against one of MLB’s best lineups, the Mets’ pitchers have to stop the engine of that lineup in Ohtani.

How they win

Mets: The Mets can win this series because their starting pitching and pitching depth are significantly better than what the Dodgers have. Being able to roll out Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana will give New York a fighting chance in every game. And with their biggest stars playing like stars at the perfect time, the Mets’ bats will put pressure on L.A.’s starting pitching — or lack thereof — in every game, getting to the Dodgers’ bullpen quickly, which will have a carryover effect as the series goes along. How well the L.A. relievers hold up could be the difference in this one.

Dodgers: If the Dodgers win the NLCS, it’ll be because the switch they flipped after Game 3 of the NLDS gave them renewed belief that at their best, they’re better than their competition. From an offensive standpoint, few teams, if any, can slug with these Dodgers. And with Mookie Betts starting to look like himself, Ohtani always a threat to leave the yard, and the sheer depth L.A. presents, especially with the pair of Hernándezes getting hot, if any game in the series turns into a high-scoring affair, the Dodgers have a huge advantage.

Series prediction

Dodgers in seven: This series won’t be a walk in the park for either team. The Mets feel like this postseason’s team of destiny, but that shouldn’t distract from the fact that they are a very good ball club. The Dodgers come in with lots of momentum after a thrilling series against the rival Padres. New York has a clear advantage in starting pitching, but L.A.’s lineup is built for slug and big swings that change a game.

The difference likely lies in the bullpens and with the managers. Both Dave Roberts and Carlos Mendoza have out-managed their opponents thus far in October. Mendoza hasn’t look fazed in the postseason, even as a rookie manager, but Roberts still has the advantage, having been in these moments so many times before. This series will go the distance, but the Dodgers’ experience will give them the edge and send them to the World Series for the first time since 2020.