Michigan’s election fate will depend on laborers. A Democrat and Republican outline what those workers are looking for.

• Polls show Michigan is still in a tight race ahead of the election.
• Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II is campaigning for Harris, while Macomb County GOP Chair Mark Forton door-knocks for Trump.
• Both told BI they’re targeting the powerful union vote. It has historically gone Democratic but is more in flux this cycle.

With the election clock ticking, all eyes are on Michigan.

Polls in the state are still tight. Former President Donald Trump won by a narrow margin in 2016; it swung back to Biden in 2020.

Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist II is campaigning for the Harris-Walz ticket. Mark Forton, the GOP chair in Macomb County and former United Auto Workers union member, is out door-knocking for Trump.

Both told Business Insider they are especially targeting union workers whose votes have proved decisive in the last few elections. Though historically blue, their vote is not a lock for either party this time. Gilchrist and Forton say high prices and who voters can trust are top of mind.

“Michigan was always going to be close in this election,” Gilchrist said.

Harris has an uphill battle in Macomb County, where Forton said he’s been going door-to-door and is confident about Republicans’ chances. The county represents a shift to the right in working-class sentiment — in 2016, it was pivotal in flipping Michigan from blue to red. As The Detroit News reports, Macomb has been the most populous county in the state to back Trump in 2016 and 2020.

“I think we’re going to do very, very well in Macomb County,” Forton said. “Macomb County carried the state in 2016,” he said, adding of 2024, “we have to do it again.”

Gilchrist recalls a recent visit to UAW local 651 in Flint; three different workers — he’s not sure if they knew each other — came up to him to say that this election is an inflection point for the future of workers.

“This is really a turning point,” he said, paraphrasing what the workers told him. “And when I turn this corner, I want to have somebody who’s got my back with me around the corner.”

Workers in Michigan are shifting right and citing high prices as a major concern this election cycle

Unions, which have been reliable Democratic stalwarts for decades, are seeing some members shift their alliances. The powerful Teamsters union, which represents over 1 million workers across a slew of industries nationwide, for instance, issued no endorsement at all — their first time not endorsing a Democrat since 1996, as the Washington Post reported.

Across the US, working-class Americans are gravitating right. That’s been true in Michigan, too, according to a poll of 600 Michigan voters from October 7 to October 11 by PR firm Marketing Research Group; Trump claimed 11% more union voters from their last polling in the spring, bringing his support to 42% among Michigan union voters.

In Macomb County, a previous Democratic stronghold, Forton said that Democrats are thinking beyond their political traditions. These are “family people whose family history has been voting for Democrats for decades,” Forton said. “Well, they came out and they voted for Ronald Reagan big time twice, and they voted for Trump big time twice. And they’re going to do it this time even bigger yet.”

Gretchen Whitmer, the state’s popular Democratic governor, warned in September that polling generally showing Harris far ahead was not true — the race will be tighter than that. And in a state where Biden won by just over 150,000 votes in 2020, Michigan’s 564,000 union members could prove to be particularly consequential.

“Those labor union members talking to one another and talking about what’s at stake is often what has made the difference in election after election after election,” Gilchrist said.

The UAW — one of Michigan’s most prominent unions — has endorsed Harris, along with the Michigan Teamsters local. The union vote isn’t a monolith, something both Gilchrist and Forton are seeing.

“There’s always been people from all sorts of political parties and persuasions who’ve been members of labor unions,” Gilchrist said. “It’s never not been true. Labor unions wouldn’t be effective if they were not representative.”

Forton, who worked as a UAW auto worker for 35 years, said he’s been hearing that internal political conflict firsthand.

“They’re coming in the office all the time. They’re saying that their union is wrong, that there’s 70% voting for Trump, that everybody they know is voting for Trump,” Forton said.

When it comes to what workers want out of this election, both Gilchrist and Forton said that prices are looming large for workers they’ve spoken to. Inflation soared in the wake of the pandemic, only recently reaching levels last seen in February 2021.

Working families are out paying for groceries and food, and then coming home for dinner “and they’re listening to this individual saying that Bidenomics works when their plants are closing down, their factories are closing down again, layoffs everywhere,” Forton said. He added: “These aren’t stupid people. We realize that this Democrat, Republican thing, we’re Americans, we’re all affected by the same things.”

Gilchrist said that workers are looking for someone who can not only deliver lower prices but someone who they feel they can trust. At that same UAW local, he saw some workers who were both nervous and excited for the future.

“They want their kids to do better than they did. They’re nervous because they know that that hasn’t been true for everyone,” he said. “But they also know that Kamala Harris cares about their kids.”

As a parent, the same concerns are on his mind.

“I think about who’s the president that’s going to actually look at creating a pathway to health and wealth for my kids,” Gilchrist said. “And that’s the same thing that they were asking me about.”