MLB Wild Card Series: Which Game 1 loser has best chance of coming back and advancing in MLB playoff bracket?

Throughout the postseason the CBS Sports MLB experts will bring you an occasional Batting Around roundtable breaking down the latest news and happenings around the league. Last week we debated Aaron Judge’s and Shohei Ohtani’s seasons. This week we’re going to discuss Wild Card Series comebacks.

The Astros, Orioles, Brewers and Braves all enter Wednesday’s Game 2s with their backs against the wall. A loss and their seasons are over. Houston, Baltimore and Milwaukee are all trying to avoid getting ousted from the postseason on their home fields. In the very short history of the Wild Card Series, no team that has lost Game 1 has won the series. Only one of the eight Game 1 losers (the Mets in 2022) even forced a decisive Game 3.

Here’s a look back at Tuesday’s Wild Card Series Game 1s, which saw the Tigers, Royals, Mets and Padres put themselves one win away from reaching the divisional round.

Which team has best chance to come back in Wild Card Series?

R.J. Anderson: I’ll say the Astros. On paper, Hunter Brown’s strength (elevating heaters) should play well against the Tigers‘ lineup. Additionally, I think the Houston lineup will find more success against whatever pitching chaos Detroit cooks up in Game 2. Obviously anything can happen in a single game, but I suspect we’ll get a Game 3 in Houston.

Matt Snyder: Yeah, it’s the Astros. The Tigers have burnt Tarik Skubal for the series and now have “chaos” coming the rest of the way. I greatly appreciate this for the entertainment factor, but bullpen games can be tricky in that so many different pitchers have to be “on” for the day. The Astros have been here so many times, too, that they won’t be fazed by the situation. 

Mike Axisa: The Orioles for me. Seth Lugo had a great season, but I think Baltimore’s lineup is too deep to remain as silent as they were against Cole Ragans on Tuesday. Plus the Royals have really struggled offensively the last two weeks or so. They scored one run in Game 1 on Tuesday and more than two runs only three times in their final 11 regular season games. I trust the O’s to put together a representative game offensively, even against Lugo (and Michael Wacha in Game 3), more than I do Kansas City to continue eking out such low-scoring wins.

Dayn Perry: I’d love to provide some diversity here in terms of answers, but, yes, it’s the Astros. They’ve been at their expected level for months, they’re at home, and the Tigers’ pitching situation is very dubious now that Skubal has been burned for the series. Obviously, I’ll always take the team that wins Game 1 in a best-of-three series, but the Astros to my thinking have the best shot at winning two in a row.