Mobile shopping forecast to drive over half of online holiday sales: report

Dive Brief: 

• During this year’s upcoming holiday season, 53% of online sales are forecast to happen on mobile devices, according to a new Adobe Analytics report. Adobe projects that mobile shopping will “consistently eclipse” desktop going into 2025. 
• Between January and July, consumer spending via mobile devices rose 10.2% year over year to $280.4 billion. During that seven months mobile sales sales comprised nearly half (47.7%) of all online sales, up from 46.6% the previous year.
• While mobile personal care purchases made up 77% of all online retail sales, mobile groceries and apparel sales comprised 68.2% and 60.8%, respectively, of all online retail sales. 

Dive Insight:

A “tipping point” is on the horizon regarding mobile shopping. Consumers are consistently shopping more on smaller screens, with the first half of 2024 seeing consistent double-digit growth in mobile spend. With that behavior projected to continue into the holiday season and into next year it could spell “a major shift in consumer behavior online,” per the report. 

“Adobe Analytics data shows that consumers have embraced mobile shopping for purchases that are more frequent and lower in price, but we expect larger purchases will begin to shift towards smaller screens as well,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement. “Adobe’s data also shows that basket sizes on mobile are 32% smaller than on desktop, which presents both a challenge and opportunity for brands to refine mobile experiences and close the gap to drive revenue.”

The rise in mobile shopping can particularly be seen during the holidays. In 2021, 43% of online sales were on mobile, and by last year mobile overtook desktop for the first time with 51% of online sales, per the report. Last year consumers spent the most on mobile on Christmas Day, which drove 63% of online sales. 

Adobe’s findings build upon other research suggesting that online retail sales are growing in general. An FTI Consulting report predicted that online U.S. retail sales would grow 9.8% to $1.2 trillion in 2024.  

In the continuous search for deals, Adobe found that consumers are taking advantage of Summer sales on their mobile devices. During events like Prime Day, Fourth of July and Memorial Day, mobile sales comprised 51% of the average online retail sales, Adobe said in its report.