NBA Finals betting trends to know ahead of Game 1

It’s finally here.

The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks will square off in the 2024 NBA Finals in a much anticipated matchup between first-team All-NBA selections Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum. This will be Doncic’s first appearance in the Finals and Tatum’s second, with the Boston superstar having lost to the Warriors in 2022. 

The Celtics are -225 favorites to win the series and 6.5-point favorites in Game 1, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. FOX Sports Research dove into the data and has given you the ten best trends to know ahead of the series in order to help you make some profitable wagers.

Let’s take a look:

Overall Trends

• Since the 1990-91 season, the Celtics are 12-7 against the spread (ATS) (63.2%) and 9-10 straight up (SU) (47.4%) in the Finals, and 5-3 ATS and SU (62.5%) as a favorite in the Finals.
• Since the 1990-91 season, the Mavericks are 7-4-1 ATS (63.6%) and 6-6 SU (50%) in the Finals, and 4-2 ATS (66.7%) and 2-4 SU (33.3%) as an underdog in the Finals.
• Since the 1990-91 season, the Under has hit in 105 of 182 games (57.7%) in the Finals (excludes four pushes).
• Since the 1990-91 season, No. 5 seeds are 4-2 ATS (66.7) and 2-4 SU (33.3%) in the Finals (2019-20 Heat).
• Since the 1990-91 season, No. 1 seeds are 89-82-2 ATS and 92-81 SU in the Finals, and 25-22 ATS (53.2%) and 29-18 SU (61.7%) in the last 10 seasons.

Game 1 Trends

• Since the 1990-91 season, favorites are 22-11 ATS (66.7%) and 26-7 SU (78.8%) in Game 1 of the Finals; all 33 favorites in that span were also the home team.
• Since the 1990-91 season, the Over has hit 20 of 33 times (60.6%) in Game 1 of the Finals.
• Since the 1990-91 season, the higher seed is 14-9 ATS and SU (60.9%) in Game 1 of the Finals.
• Since the 1990-91 season, the team that wins Game 1 of the Finals has covered in 29 of 33 games (87.9%).
• Since the 1990-91 season, favorites between six and eight points are 10-3 ATS (76.9%) and 11-2 SU (84.6%).