NBA First Scorer Props – December 29

Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for December 29. Go here for NBA Championship odds.

Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for December 29.

Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.

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NBA First Scorer Props – December 29

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets

Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Toyota Center – Houston, TX
Broadcast – NBA TV

We’ll kick off Sunday’s plays with the team ranked second in securing the first bucket. The Rockets have been phenomenal in the early game activity. Despite being just a touch above league average when it comes to the tip, the Rockets have scored first more than two-thirds of the time (67.7% of the time). That’s a 26.3% advantage over the Heat, who are among the league worst in scoring first. They rank 25th in that metric despite some pretty solid looking tipoff numbers from Bam Adebayo. With the high finish rate, we’ll go with someone from Houston here.

Even though they’re one of the top teams when it comes to scoring first, they have a relatively small list of guys who are scoring those buckets. Just four players have scored first for the Rockets – Alperen Sengun, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr., and Jalen Green. Of those four, only two of them have more than five, which are just Sengun and Smith Jr. If you look at the shot log of the last three games, it’s no surprise to see those two have dominated the shots. If you take the first three shots of the last three ganes, these two make up 77.8% of those shots. With one being the odds-on favorite and the other being a deep underdog, let’s play the longshot who I feel like should be a co-favorite.

First Scorer Bet for December 29: Jabari Smith Jr. (+950)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, OK
Broadcast – NBA TV

As I mentioned early, the Rockets are number two in the league in terms of scoring first. That’s because the Grizzlies are number one. Not only are they the only team scoring first at least 70% of the time in the league, but they are one of just two teams that’s winning 80% or better of the tips (the Cavaliers are the other). Those are already numbers that you’d have to tail, but it helps that the Thunder are a below average team in scoring first. They rank 19th in the league and have been trending downwards as of late.

Similar to the Smith/Sengun domination above, we have a similar tandem in charge in the early action here. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey have taken the same percentage of their first three shots in the last three games (77.8%). The remaining 22.2% belongs to Desmond Bane, which really means that there are only three options worth playing here. The lion’s share of that work belongs to Jaren Jackson Jr. and he’s taken the first shot in two of those games. With the odds so tight for all three, we’ll ride with him.

First Scorer Bet for December 29: Jaren Jackson Jr. (+550)

If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for December 29, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.