NCAA baseball tournament 2024: Updated College World Series odds after thrilling Super Regional openers

UConn’s odds plummeted from +10000 to +21000 after it suffered a brutal 24-4 loss at Florida State on Friday afternoon. It marked a season-high in runs allowed for Jim Penders program, which outscored opponents 19-9 in four regional matchups. 

“Florida State flat-out outplayed us, outcoached us, out-pitched us, out-caught the ball,” Penders said after the game. “They did everything right. It was 24-3. I thought we were next door at Doak Campbell. Thought I saw Charlie Ward running around. 24-3 looks more like a football score.”

This year’s Cinderella team, Evansville, took two out of three games against regional host East Carolina to advance to its first super regional appearance in program history. The Aces couldn’t withstand four home runs from Tennessee in the super regional opener and fell 11-6 at Lindsey Nelson Stadium in Knoxville on Friday. 

“It was suffocating, the crowd. The atmosphere was challenging,” Evansville coach Wes Carroll said regarding the Volunteers home crowd in his postgame presser.

Kansas State blew a 3-0 lead against Virginia in its super regional opener and lost 7-4 in Charlottesville on Friday. As a result, the Wildcats’ odds plummeted from +5000 to +10000.

“It’s resiliency and it’s urgency to get back in this thing on Saturday,” K-State head coach Pete Hughes said after Friday’s game. “Their mindset is going to be great. We’re still two games away from going to Omaha and we’re one game away from getting back into this series. So, our guys will be resilient. They’ll respond; they’re a resilient group.”

From one elite team pitching performance to another, Oregon cruised through the Santa Barbara Regional and kicks off super regional play against Texas A&M on Saturday. The Ducks beat UC Santa Barbara in two straight games, allowing just one total run against the Gauchos. In Sunday’s game, which extended Oregon’s postseason run, starting pitcher Kevin Seitter tossed a complete game shutout while striking out seven batters and allowing just four hits. Thanks to that heroic outing, the Ducks are onto the field of 16 for a second consecutive year and just the third time in program history. 

West Virginia opened the series at UNC as a heavy underdog but looked like it would steal the opener in Chapel Hill on Friday night. The Mountaineers led 6-5 entering the bottom of the ninth inning but gave up a home run on the first pitch of the frame and eventually lost the game on a two-run, walk-off homer from UNC’s Vance Honeycutt, the Tar Heels’ all-time leader in home runs.

Florida’s 2024 season has been plagued with inconsistency, but it will look to right the ship in its super regional opener against Clemson on Saturday. On paper, the Gators had the talent to compete for a conference championship, but their record fell to 28-27 with a loss to Vanderbilt in their first game of the SEC Tournament and, when selection day for the NCAA Tournament rolled around, looked like a bubble team at best. Florida made the cut and proved it belongs among the nation’s best teams.

NC State has persisted through its fair share of setbacks in recent years and opens super regional play Saturday as an underdog against Georgia. The Wolfpack lost starting pitcher Matt Willadsen to an arm injury before the season even began, and outfielder Josh Hoge and key reliever Shane Van Dam were shelved with injuries as the year went on. Yet the Pack cruised through their regional, posting a 3-0 record against James Madison thanks to some clutch hitting. 

Charlie Condon, a potential No. 1 overall pick in July’s MLB Draft, garners a lot of attention for the Bulldogs and is arguably the biggest draw in Saturday’s super regional matchup with NC State. The attention is certainly deserved, largely thanks to his absurd 36 home runs on the year. However, the Athens Regional displayed how deep Georgia truly is as a team. Last week’s championship game against Georgia Tech went to extra innings after Georgia tied the game at 5-5 in the top of the ninth thanks to a solo home run from 9-hole hitter Kolby Branch. In the top of the 10th, Georgia scored three runs on hits from catcher Fernando Gonzalez, No. 7 in the lineup, and leadoff hitter Corey Collins. 

Oregon State didn’t have a traditional path toward its super-regional opener against Kentucky on Saturday. Its third regional game against UC Irvine, with a spot in the super regional on the line, was suspended in the fourth inning due to rain. The Beavers had a 6-4 lead at the time, though UC Irvine had a runner on first with no outs when the game was called and had done a good job keeping pace with the Beavers to that point. When play resumed Monday, Irvine got a run back to cut the lead to 6-5. That was all the offense it would manufacture, as the Beavers shook off the delay and plated at least one runner in each of the last five innings to secure an 11-6 win and their second super regional appearance in the last three years. 

Virginia, the only team hosting a super regional for the second straight year, overcame a sluggish start Friday night and rallied for a 7-4 win over Kansas State.

“Virginia is a winning program,” Wildcats head coach Pete Hughes said after the game. “That’s what winning programs do. They know how to play with a lead. They know how to play from behind. When you’ve won as much as those guys have won, it’s expected. There’s a home-field advantage that comes with that. Winning breeds winning.”

Clemson’s regional run wasn’t for the faint of heart (until the final game, at least). The Tigers got pushed to the brink by High Point in the opener until a single from Tristan Bissetta in the bottom of the ninth inning gave them a 4-3 win and kept them on the winner’s side of the bracket. In a similar fashion, Cam Cannarella had a go-ahead sacrifice fly in Game 2 against Coastal Carolina that clutched another 4-3 win. Then, in a championship game rematch against Coastal Carolina, Clemson scored in five consecutive innings and posted a 6-run eighth inning to soar to a comfortable 12-5 win. Now, the Tigers enter super regional play against Florida as a heavy favorite.

Florida State obliterated UConn 24-4 on Friday, and oddsmakers responded by bumping its College World Series odds from +1300 to +850. The Seminoles’ 24 runs and 20-run margin of victory broke super regional records.

“I’ve always said that hitting is super contagious,” outfielder Jaime Ferrer said after the game. “I think we saw it today against UConn. Not only that, but the scouting reports that we give each other after at-bats is super important, too.”

Kentucky has the fourth-best odds to win the College World Series entering Saturday’s matchup with Oregon State. Wildcats head coach Nick Mingione said he and his staff have been preparing for the Beavers all week.

“I would say they’re multidimensional,” Mingione said. “When you look at even in the leadoff spot, he can bunt. He can bunt, he can steal bases, and that’s pretty similar up and down the lineup. They can lay down bunts, hit homers and move the ball. They have good at-bats, guys that can hit.”

UNC kept its thrilling postseason run rolling with a nail-biting 8-6 win at Boshamer Stadium on Friday. The Tar Heels faced a 6-5 deficit entering the bottom of the ninth inning on Friday night but tied the game on a leadoff home run from freshman Luke Stevenson. Vance Honeycutt took the plate two batters later and worked his magic. The Tar Heel home run king crushed a 425-foot out to left field to clinch the win. Oddsmakers bumped UNC’s odds from +900 to +650 as a result.

Texas A&M has long been a favorite to go the distance in the College World Series and has the second-best odds to win it all entering its super regional against Oregon. Its showing in the Bryan-College Station Regional certainly helped its case. Outside of an 11-inning win against a strong Texas team in Game 2, the Aggies didn’t have much trouble against the likes of Grambling and Louisiana. Aggies third baseman Gavin Grahovac hit his 22nd home run of the season Sunday, setting a program record for freshmen. Texas A&M also had five total home runs against the Ragin’ Cajuns to bring their season total to 130, another program record. That kind of power-hitting will be hard for any team to contend with.  

Tennessee entered super regionals as the favorite for the College World Series and improved its odds with an 11-6 win over Evansville on Friday. The Aces entered the series as a massive underdogs but had the game knotted 5-5 in the fifth inning on Friday. Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello said the Volunteers didn’t underestimate Evansville in the opener and definitely won’t in game two.

“We knew exactly what we’re getting,” Vitello said after the game. “The players did, too. Anybody that was wearing white today or wearing our uniform knew it was gonna be hell, and it’ll be like that tomorrow.”

247Sports’ Will Backus contributed to this report.