New iPad Pro demand likely to be low for two reasons: TrendForce

You might expect the introduction of the first OLED screens and uber-thin form factor to result in strong iPad Pro demand, but a new forecast from market intelligence company TrendForce suggests it may actually be lower than last year.

The company predicts that total shipments of the latest iPad Pro models “will only reach between 4.5 to 5 million units in 2024” – which would be down on 2023. It gives two reasons for this pessimistic picture …

New iPad Pro models – thinner, OLED, M4 chip

When Apple yesterday announced the new iPad Pro models, there were three key improvements over earlier versions:

• Thinner form factor
• OLED screens
• M4 chip

Demand likely to be relatively low

TrendForce estimates that total iPad Pro demand this year will be between 4.5 million and 5 million units, which would actually represent a year-on-year fall in demand, despite the new features.

The company gives two reasons for this, of which price is the first. The new models got a $200 increase in the starting price (albeit with doubled storage), and additionally require all-new Magic Keyboard and Apple Pencil Pro accessories. That makes the total cost of upgrade very expensive.

But the second factor is the launch of the 13-inch iPad Air. I said earlier that I saw this as huge news.

For the first time, iPad buyers are no longer forced to pay for Pro features they don’t need just to get a bigger screen. 

TrendForce concurs.

The introduction of a 13-inch iPad Air could potentially dilute consumer interest, affecting demand for other models [including the new iPad Pro].

But Apple will still take half the market

The company says that while demand may be lower than some expect, the total size of the OLED iPad market is small, so Apple will take around half of it.

The total shipment of AMOLED tablets is projected to hit around 9 million units in 2024, accounting for about 7% of the tablet market.

Photo: Apple