NFBC Main Event Tracker: Week 22 Review

Ugh. This is the week that we have been hoping to avoid all season. One in which we not only fail to make any progress in our climb up the standings, but also start to lose our grasp on third place in the league. Injuries, illnesses and poor performance combined to form a whirlwind of pain. Strap in, it’s going to be a grind over the final five weeks of the season.

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Hitting Review

After what feels like a month’s worth of terrific production from the offense on this team, we started to show some chinks in the armor last week as each of the counting stats missed badly. That trend continued this week as it was just brutal across the board.

Injuries played a role in our demise this week. Xavier Edwards missed 2.5 games over the weekend after exiting Friday’s game with a back issue. Tyler O’Neill missed two games over the weekend with a finger injury. Willson Contreras broke his finger on Saturday and missed the rest of the weekend. That helped to contribute to the cringe-inducing total of just 270 at-bats. Yuck.

William Contreras continued his recent resurgence, hitting .304 on the week with a couple of runs scored and three RBI. His elder brother Willson was having a nice week as well, hitting .294 with three runs scored, an RBI and a stolen base before breaking his finger as he was plunked on Saturday.

Paul Goldschmidt continues to be a waste of space that we have no viable alternative for. He hit just .125 (2-for-16) with zero runs or RBI on the week, though he was able to steal a base. He was also benched twice, which could be a trend going forward.

Xavier Edwards hit .333 (5-for-15) with four RBI and a stolen base in his limited action before a back injury sidelined him for most of the weekend. Thankfully, it sounds like he should be ready to go early next week.

Ezequiel Tovar had a pretty down week overall, hitting just .231 with three runs scored. He’s got a seven-game week at Coors Field coming up which seems like a perfect get-right spot for him.

Jose Ramirez did Jose Ramirez things, even while not hitting for average. He still socked a dinger, stole three bases and drove in three runs. He has been terrific all season.

Tyler O’Neill cranked a solo home run on Sunday – but that was his only hit in 11 at-bats during a week where he missed several games with a finger injury. At least he’s healthy heading into next week.

Randy Arozarena had his thieving gloves on this week, swiping a team-high four bases. It came with a .143 batting average, three runs scored and just one RBI however. Need him to start socking some dingers.

Zero complaints about Jurickson Profar this week. He hit .296 with a pair of homers, four runs scored, a team-leading six RBI and a stolen base. Welcome back.

Jarren Duran continued to lead the way as well, hitting .350 with a team-leading six runs scored, two homers, three RBI and a stolen base. What an absolute monster he has been for us this season.

Kerry Carpenter sat against a couple of southpaws, but he still hit .294 with a homer and three RBI on the week. That’ll play every time.

It was a piecework job at corner infield, but Ty France and Rowdy Tellez combined to score four runs, drive in four runs and hit a homer. That’s more than acceptable.

Jeff McNeil had a down week and seems to be losing playing time to Jose Iglesias again. He’s on the watch list.

Jace Jung struggled in his first week for us, hitting .182 (4-for-22) with three runs scored and an RBI. He’s in the lineup almost everyday though and I’m still confident in his skillset. May regret not putting Connor Norby above him on last week’s bid list though as Norby socked a pair of dingers this week.

Taking a look at the weekly numbers, it isn’t pretty. We came up short in runs (-4.3), homers (-3.9), RBI (-9.4) and batting average (-0.018). The only target that we hit was in stolen bases (+4.2).

Looking at the yearly numbers, we are still running surpluses in runs (+45) and stolen bases (+16). We’re slightly under the number in batting average (-0.003) while chasing serious ground in both home runs (-14) and RBI (-71).

Pitching Review

Alright, optimism is running high to start the week on the pitching side as we are lined up for 12 total starts, while sitting Alexis Diaz to fit an extra starting pitcher into the lineup. With 12 starts, we’re really expecting four wins at a minimum – and are really looking to make up ground there and in strikeouts. Something like six wins and 60+ strikeouts would really be ideal.

The party started on Monday with Jonathan Cannon taking the ball against the Giants. It did not go well. Cannon pitched six innings, but was saddled with five runs on nine walks+hits while striking out four batters. Not exactly the start that we were hoping for.

Josh Hader got into Monday’s game as well though, working the top half of the ninth inning in a tied game against the Red Sox. He then became the beneficiary as Yainer Diaz belted a walk-off homer to end the game, giving Hader his sixth victory of the season. He retired all three hitters he faced, but didn’t record a strikeout.

On Tuesday things got really interesting as we had four starters take the hill and hopes were extremely high. It didn’t take long for them to be dashed. Erick Fedde pitched decently in a losing effort against the Brewers, giving up two runs on 10 walks+hits over 5 2/3 innings. He struck out just two batters in the ballgame to go along with the WHIPping that he gave us.

Bryan Sammons wasn’t any better. Despite being staked to an early lead, the Tigers’ southpaw couldn’t hang on – ultimately surrendering three runs on seven walks+hits over 4 1/3 frames. Like Fedde, Sammons only recorded two strikeouts. So not just poor ratios, but we’re also missing out on the strikeouts that we need. Fun.

Walker Buehler – the eighth and final starter that we chose to throw this week – took the mound against the Mariners. We may have chosen Tyler Mahle instead, but Mahle landed back on the injured list and will probably miss the remainder of the season. Whammy. Buehler was.. not good. Buehler gave up three runs on seven hits and three walks in just four innings of work. He struck out just one batter. Ugh.

Thankfully, someone came to pitch on Tuesday as Shane Baz delivered an absolute gem in a 1-0 victory over the Athletics – scattering three hits and three walks over 7 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball. He only punched out four batters in the ballgame, but this start went a long way toward correcting some of that early ratio damage.

Our other Rays’ starter delivered as well on Wednesday as Ryan Pepiot also secured a victory against the Athletics. He did so while allowing just two runs on three hits and a walk over six-plus innings – striking out five in the process.

We then turned to our supposed staff ace on Thursday night, coming off of the worst start of his career last week. Corbin Burnes struggled once again – this time against the Astros – giving up six runs (five earned) on eight hits and two walks over his 5 2/3 innings. He didn’t even help out in the strikeout column with just two punchouts in the game. Unacceptable.

On Saturday we turned the ball over to Bowden Francis, who was absolutely dominant in each of his two starts for us last week. He was even better this time out – carrying a no-hit bid into the ninth inning against the Angels and ultimately allowing just one run on one hit and three walks in his eight-plus frames. Francis also racked up a career-high 12 strikeouts in the ballgame. What an absolute stud this guy has been.

So we head into Sunday with four wins secured already for the week and four starters scheduled to take the hill. Unfortunately, Baz was scratched from his second start of the week as he was battling the flu, bringing us down to three. Two of them – Cannon and Sammons – were taking on each other, so the win expectation was quite high in that game.

Cannon did not pitch well – giving up five runs on 12 walks+hits in his four-plus innings of work. Woof. He at least struck out four though. The runs he allowed gave Sammons a shot at a victory though, which the left-hander was able to secure after giving up just one run on three hits and a pair of walks over 4 2/3 innings with three punchouts.

Fedde pitched well in his second start of the week – allowing just one run on two hits and three walks over six innings against the Twins – but the Cardinals’ offense was lax with the run support and couldn’t earn him a victory. He did record seven strikeouts at least though.

Hader finished the week by closing out the Orioles on Sunday night to nab our team’s first save of the week.

Looking back at the decision that we made to sit Alexis Diaz for the week in favor of an extra starter, we didn’t miss out on anything by sitting Diaz. He blew his only save chance on the week when he served up a walk-off two-run homer on Sunday. We also didn’t gain anything because Buehler was so poor in that spot. Had we started Justin Verlander instead, we at least could have gained an extra five strikeouts.

Looking at the weekly numbers, the only target that we hit was in wins (+1.3). We still managed to fall short in strikeouts (-8.7), saves (-2.1) and in both ERA (-0.469) and WHIP (-0.160).

When glancing at the season-long numbers, our only surplus is still in saves (+3). We’re chasing huge numbers in wins (-14), strikeouts (-103), ERA (-0.61) and WHIP (-0.077).

FAAB Plan

You should try to keep emotion out of FAAB bidding and definitely want to be able to devote the necessary time to setting your bids. I’ll admit that this week not only am I extremely run down after a very stressful week personally, but I’m also a bit on tilt based on the failures of our team this week. For the first time all year, I feel it slipping away and am nervous about even holding on to third place.

It’s definitely not the time to get complacent though. It’s time to put in the work and do anything and everything that we can to strengthen our team for the final five weeks of the season.

As noted above, injuries hit us hard this week. Tyler Mahle went back to the injured list and is expected to remain there for the remainder of the season or close to it. He’s an easy drop. Willson Contreras broke his finger when he was hit by a pitch on Saturday and is expected to miss significant time as well. Losing elite production from the catching position is never fun and is virtually irreplaceable from the waiver wire. I think Contreras is a drop as well.

David Fry has been languishing on our roster for exactly this type of scenario, if something happened to either Contreras brother and we need someone to step in. The problem, is that since the acquisition of Lane Thomas, Fry’s playing time has taken a major hit. He started just two games during this past week and there’s really no reason to expect that to change going forward. That means that Fry should be a drop as well this week and we need to find a catcher that we can slot right in to play for next week.

Xavier Edwards also suffered an injury this week, leaving Friday’s game with a back issue and sitting out for the remainder of the weekend. There’s optimism that he can avoid the injured list though and he’s certainly not being considered as a drop at this time.

There are more potential drops to be found though. On the pitching side, Sammons seems like an easy drop after using him for his two-start week. The same can be said for Cannon. Buehler was terrible in his start and should probably be a drop as well – but he’s lined up for a two-start week next week. The two matchups are both unfavorable – the Orioles at home and the Diamondbacks in Arizona – but with how badly we need wins and strikeouts, we may just have to use him for those two starts.

On the hitting side, Ty France is on the roster bubble as well. The Reds added Dominic Smith this week and he has taken over as their regular first baseman against right-handed pitching, relegating France to a short-side platoon role. He seems like a drop as well if we can find a viable replacement.

That’s six relatively easy drops. And a few others who could be on the edge. Yikes. That’s really not a spot that you want to be in at this point in the season. Let’s see what’s out there that could help our team.

On the pitching side, Cooper Criswell is lined up for two starts for the Red Sox – taking on the Blue Jays and Tigers. That looks like a strong option. Brant Hurter is tentatively set to function as a bulk reliever twice for the Tigers – taking on the Angels and the Red Sox. That seems viable as well, especially as he can probably he had for just $1. Casey Mize looked very sharp in his final minor league rehab start at Triple-A Toledo on Saturday and is expected to return at the end of August. The former top overall pick could be extremely helpful over the final month of the season.

Davis Martin has pitched pretty well since joining the White Sox’ rotation. He’s lined up to pitch twice as well – vs. Tigers and vs. Mets. Lance Lynn (knee) is nearing his return from the injured list and could be a way to add strikeouts to the roster. Jon Gray was clobbered by the Guardians in his return to the Rangers’ rotation this week, but he gets a single start week against the Athletics that could be useful. Cole Irvin seems like he’ll make two starts, but it’s about as tough as it gets – at the Dodgers and at the Rockies.

Cade Povich gets a tough one against the Dodgers in Los Angeles this week. He’ll take on the White Sox the following week though and then would double against the Red Sox and Tigers. Probably couldn’t use him next week, but the two following weeks could be viable. Johnny Cueto and Randy Vasquez could also potentially make two starts.

So what’s that, like ten total pitching options? Now how many of those are better options than Buehler’s double. Exactly. That’s why he has to stick around.

On the offensive side of the ball, the options aren’t much better. The first thing that we have to find is a catcher. Jacob Stallings and Drew Romo are sharing the work behind the plate for the Rockies and they’re due to play seven games at Coors next week. Romo caught Sunday, so the expectation is that Stalling will start at least four games next week. That’s probably enough for me. The other options are the Tigers’ duo of Jake Rogers and Dillon Dingler, with Rogers expected to play four next week. Carson Kelly perhaps as well.

As far as regular everyday bats go, the pickings are slim as well. Trevor Larnach has been swinging a better bat as of late and could be worth a look. Same thing for a potential reunion with Jorge Polanco. Gavin Sheets has 1B/OF eligibility and is in the White Sox’ lineup most days. Jose Tena has been the Nationals’ regular third baseman and has a bit of power and speed. Connor Norby has looked impressive since joining the Marlins. Dominic Smith is probably a better option than Ty France is as he’s seeing the strong side at-bats there. Leody Taveras could be an option.

While the options aren’t terribly exciting, they’re upgrades over what we are currently dealing with and are worth the swap. Let’s try not to spend all of our remaining $32 FAAB to make our six additions.

FAAB Results

Alright, let’s see the spoils. Our highest bid on anyone was $5 and most were dollar days, so it’s probably going to be a ways down the list before we come across something that we’ll actually have a shot at.

Jasson Dominguez was the top addition on the week, going to Rob Giese for $20 ($7). I understand the move, but didn’t really have room for a stash on offense at this stage of the season.

Derek Hill was the next highest bid to Phil Dussault for $14 ($7). Hill is a player that we had some interest in, but it was decently far down the bid list. Nothing to be concerned with or disappointed about just yet.

Giese also added Bo Bichette for $12 ($1). Same idea as Dominguez, except I anticipate Bichette to be back with the big-league club sooner. Not a place that I was looking at this week, but I think it’s a solid addition. He also picked up the next name, Jon Gray for $10 ($2). Gray was on our pitching lists, as his single against the Athletics should be a nice start and his upside for the remainder of the season looks high.

The next one we are a bit saddened by, as Connor Norby goes off the board for $9 ($6). He’s a player that we had interest in last week but prioritized Jace Jung instead. He was also our top hitting target this week. Bah.

Keider Montero was the next man off the board at $8 ($3). He’s got a nice double lined up in two weeks, but we weren’t going to get that high on price. Another whammy as Davis Martin went off the board for $8 ($3) as well. That’s our runner-up bid on that one.

No interest in Jordan Wicks as the next name off the board for $8 ($6). Some interest in Jorge Polanco at $7 ($3) but not high enough.

We aren’t in the closer business, as we’re not even playing all of the ones that we have, so Edwin Uceta ($7 to $2) and Tyler Kinley ($7 to $2) were easy passes.

Cooper Criswell was our top target for next week’s doubles, but we didn’t get to $6 ($4). It’s not looking promising so far.

A few more names down and we hit our first win of the week with Jose Tena for $5 ($2). I like the combination of power and speed, the everyday playing time and the dual eligibility. Don’t like overspending by a couple of bucks, but we’ll take a win.

At the $3 level, we see our top catching target – Jacob Stallings – go off the board to Griffin Benger. That one stings.

Passing over a few other names that we had some interest in, we land on Trevor Larnach for $3 ($2). Just another solid outfield bat that could add some power to the mix. I’ll allow it.

Into the $2 pool, we come away with Gavin Sheets (unopposed) and Casey Mize (unopposed). I’m not thrilled to have gone the extra dollar on each, but I did really want both of them, so it’s worth it in this case.

From the $1 bin we also picked up Brant Hurter ($1 to $1 – which means that one of the two teams above us tried to add him as well). I don’t love that he’s set to function as a traditional starter instead of an opener on Tuesday, but I do like the skills.

The catcher that we wound up with from the $1 bin was Carson Kelly. It could just be a one-week thing, we’ll see where it goes.

So we dropped the six players that we wanted to move on from – Contreras, Fry, France, Sammons, Cannon and Mahle while spending a total of $14.

Looking around the league at any potential interesting drops, the name that jumps out is Tyler Glasnow. Unfortunately he may not make it back until the final week of September, so his usefulness will be minimal. Lane Thomas maybe, other than that it looks pretty bleak once again.

Looking Ahead

The days are long but the years are short. There are just five Monday’s remaining this season in which to set lineups. Five weeks. We can sprint for five weeks and at least hold onto third place. Let’s get to work.

Starting out on the pitching side. We’re currently in 9th place in our league in strikeouts with 1,045. The closest team below us is at 1,003. Above us we have 1,052, 1,060, 1,084 and 1,097. There’s another three times within 18 strikeouts after that. We probably can’t gain 100 strikeouts over five weeks, but if we maximize starts we can do some work there.

Wins are a battlefield as well. We sit in 11th place with 64 wins. Below us are teams with 63, 62 and 62. Above us are teams with 66, 66, 69, 71 and 71. Every single win is critical. Maximize starts.

Saves are a bit trickier. We are currently tied for the league lead with 67 saves. Behind us there are teams with 64, 62, 57 and 56. The team that we’re tied with has three closers – Andres Munoz, Raisel Iglesias and Mason Miller. Holding that half point with just Hader and Diaz seems unlikely. The team with 64 has two closers – Seranthony Dominguez and Kyle Finnegan. The team with 62 saves has three closers – Jason Foley, Kenley Jansen and Chad Green. We still need some saves.

Taking a look at ERA, we’re currently 13th place at 4.108. The good news is that it’ll be tough for us to fall as the next closest team is at 4.479. There’s a 4.095 that we could conceivably catch. The next closest is 3.952. Maximize starts, don’t worry about ratios.

Same thing with WHIP. We’re in 11th place at 1.224. The closest behind us is at 1.254. That would be a long way to fall. Above us are 1.212, 1.209 and 1.207. Not likely, but all possible. Still, maximizing starts seems like the play here.

So how do we best accomplish that this week? Let’s dive in. We have 12 active pitchers on our roster, assuming that Casey Mize returns to start against the Red Sox over the weekend. We aren’t likely to want to use that start, so we’re down to 11. Need to find two more pitchers to sit.

Walker Buehler had been scheduled for a two-start week, until the Dodgers decided to push him back a day to give him extra rest. We were skeptical about using him for two starts, there’s no way we’re throwing him for one against the Orioles, he’s out. That gets us to 10.

Ryan Pepiot, Justin Verlander and Brant Hurter all double, so they’re in. Hader is a lock. We can’t sit Bowden Francis.

Shane Baz missed his second start this week due to the flu and it’s unclear when he’ll start. It’ll either be at the Mariners or vs. the Padres, either way I think we use him. Alexis Diaz gets a six-game home week against the Athletics and Brewers where his likelihood of earning a win is higher at home. I think we use him this week.

That brings us down to Corbin Burnes at the Dodgers (Buehler), Kutter Crawford vs. the Blue Jays (Francis) or Erick Fedde at the Yankees (TBD). It would absolutely be our luck to start Burnes and have Buehler throw a gem against him on our bench and earn a victory. Crawford is a bit more appealing with Francis on the other side to increase the win equity. Fedde has been worse on the road this season and the Yankees have been killing the ball. Early lean is to sit Fedde.

On the offensive side of the ledger, there are no points available to gain or lose in runs scored. We have 912 to lead the league and the next closest is at 858. Same thing likely goes for stolen bases, as we lead the league with 179 and the next closest have 162 and 161. If we can trade runs or stolen bases for power in lineup decisions, we should do so.

In home runs we are in fifth place at 236. Barring anything crazy, it’s really only one point that we are fighting for. The closest person behind us has 220. The next person ahead of us has 239, but above that is 258.

The category that is more of a battleground is RBI. There, we are in 8th place with 778. The teams behind us have 774, 768 and 762. The teams ahead of us have 781, 791, 799 and 803. RBI need to be our main focus in lineup decisions.

We are in fourth place in batting average at .2562. The next closest behind us has .2512. It would be tough to lose ground. Above us we have .2584 and .2587 that could conceivably be in play.

We’re set now at catcher with Contreras and Kelly. Nothing else we can do there.

Goldschmidt gets four games, so if he’s in the lineup on Monday we probably give him another week at first base.

Xavier Edwards is an absolute stud. He has given us a world of stolen bases and runs scored, but he’s also an asset in batting average and has been a non-negative in RBI as well. He also gets a series at Coors Field. If he’s healthy and in the lineup on Monday, he starts at second base.

Tovar at shortstop and Ramirez at third base are automatics. Same goes for most of our outfield – O’Neill, Profar, Duran and Carpenter. Arozarena shouldn’t be an automatic, but he’s playing the Rays and you know damn well he is going to want some revenge against his former team. He’s in as well.

That leaves us with three spots – CI, MI And UT to fill.

The options at CI are Rowdy Tellez (three against the Cubs, one LHP, so likely plays two), Jose Tena (three against Yankees, two LHP. Tena hits left-handed, but started against each of the last two LHP he faced) or Gavin Sheets (1 vs. Tigers, three vs. Rangers). Early lean is Sheets at CI.

At MI, we have Jeff McNeil (three at Diamondbacks, one LHP, so likely plays two), Jose Tena, or Jace Jung (one at White Sox, three vs. Angels). I’m torn between Tena and Jung on that one.

We can start both of them though, as I like both better than Tellez as well and Trevor Larnach gets two LHP in his three games and isn’t going to play in those.

So Tellez, Larnach and McNeil are most likely riding the pine, unless lineups change things or Edwards is still missing with his back injury.

Where we Stand

We entered the week with only 98 points in our league. That was 28.5 points behind Benger at the top, 16 points behind Gill for second place and 9.5 points ahead of Dussault for third place. We finished the week with just 95.5 league points. That’s 26 points behind Benger at the top and 16.5 points behind Gill for second. Our lead on Dussault chasing us for third place was trimmed to one point on Saturday before falling back to five points to finish the night on Sunday.

We finished last week in 145th place in the overall standings and in 66th place in the CLQ standings.We have fallen to 172 place in the overall standings and 71st place in the CLQ. RIP to our hopes and dreams there.

The entire focus now is maximizing points in our league and doing everything that we possibly can to finish in third place. Anything less would be a complete disaster for our season.

As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.