John Mara has already promised not to fire New York Giants coach Brian Daboll during the season, and probably not after it either. Jerry Jones has vowed that Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy will coach out the season — the last on his current contract — too.
But history has shown that the dreaded “vote of confidence” — or even just promises where confidence is sort of implied — aren’t always what they seem to be. The NFL unemployment line has long been littered with coaches who were told they were safe, when they really weren’t.
Also, things change — sometimes very quickly. So hot seats don’t cool off, especially when the losing continues. And with two coaches already fired (Robert Saleh by the Jets and Dennis Allen by the Saints) there are almost certainly more to come.
Here is the FOX Sports bi-weekly ranking of the seven hottest coaching seats in the NFL, heading into Week 11:
1. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (Previous ranking: 2nd)
It might be a miracle, and it definitely will be inexplicable, if he makes it out of the bye week with his job intact. His team has now lost three straight games and, dating back to last December (when the Jaguars were actually 8-3) they’ve gone just 3-13.
Worse for Pederson, their last game before the bye week is at Detroit, so they’re not likely to head into it on a high note. On Sunday, they fell 12-7 to the Vikings in a game where the Jaguars managed just 143 yards of offense. Yes, they were without quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but 143 yards? It doesn’t matter that Mac Jones was his quarterback. It doesn’t matter who their quarterback was. That’s an unforgivable number for an offensive-minded head coach.
2. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears (Previous ranking: 4th)
He is charging up the rankings, and it’s not just because a three-game losing streak has torched their season, or because the Bears have scored 27 points in those three games, or even because they’ve scored 12 points (and no touchdowns) in the last two — though that’s all a big part of it. He’s in trouble because quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and the Bears future, is regressing. Badly.
Williams was getting hot for a few weeks, but in the last three he’s completed just 50.5 percent of his passes for a total of 468 yards and no touchdowns. In the last two weeks, he’s only run six times for 20 yards, too.
It looks like offensive coordinator Shane Waldron might take the fall for that first — a move that certainly would indicate panic in the head coach’s office. Regardless, if Eberflus or his staff can’t get Williams out of this funk and have him show some development soon, the Bears won’t have any choice but to bring in someone who can.
3. Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders (Previous ranking: 5th)
He shook up his coaching staff last week, which is never a good sign. He fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, promoted Scott Turner to that job and hired the well-respected Norv Turner as a senior assistant.
If nothing else, that kept Pierce employed through the bye week — always a dangerous time for coaches in trouble. But his reality is still bleak. The Raiders have lost five straight games, their pop-gun offense has averaged 18 points per game in that span and just 222.5 yards in their last two games.
Now there are reports of a team meeting where players actually called out their coaches, too. Pierce was supposed to clean up the dysfunction caused by his predecessor, Josh McDaniels, and bring some stability and respect to the franchise. He might not have much longer to prove he can do it.
4. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys (Previous ranking: 3rd)
Jerry Jones has made it pretty clear multiple times that he doesn’t plan to fire McCarthy during the season. On Sunday, after his team’s fourth straight loss (and fourth in four home games) he even said that he regretted the two times he has made in-season coaching changes during his ownership tenure.
However, his actual words on McCarthy’s status bear scrutiny. He said “I don’t believe we’ll make a coaching change during the season.” It’s the “I don’t believe” part that keeps McCarthy somewhat high on this list.
It also doesn’t help that Micah Parsons seemed to question McCarthy’s work ethic after the game. It certainly doesn’t help that the Cowboys are 0-4 at home and haven’t often been competitive this season. And now, with quarterback Dak Prescott out for the season with a hamstring injury, this could get real ugly, real fast.
5. Brian Daboll, New York Giants (Previous ranking: 7th)
Giants owner John Mara was much more definitive about not firing his coach during the season, saying “We are not making any changes.” And as for whether Daboll would make it through the offseason, he said “I do not anticipate making any changes,” so the door is at least still open a crack there.
Daboll jumps up on this list mostly because two coaches have already been fired and because his team heads into the bye week on a five-game losing streak and coming off an ugly, 20-17 loss to the Carolina Panthers in overtime in Germany. He was hired for his offensive mind, but their offense is awful, they probably need to make a quarterback change sooner than later, and at this point their fans are clamoring for a tank so they get the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
The Giants also have four home games left and they’re already 0-5 at the Meadowlands this season. Empty stadiums and angry crowds have a history of weighing on this ownership and convincing them to do things they otherwise promised themselves they wouldn’t do.
6. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals (Previous ranking: 5th)
The talent level on this team is so tantalizing, and they proved how good they are by taking the powerful Baltimore Ravens to the very end on Thursday night in a 35-34 loss that ended with a failed two-point conversion. Never mind the missed calls on that play, or the questionable decision to go for two in the first place. It was still their second loss in three games and has the Bengals desperately clinging to the edge of the playoff race.
To be fair to Taylor, his Bengals have played a lot better since their 0-3 start, but they’re running out of time to get this team back into contention. And it’s really not going to be easy for them to do it with games against the Chargers, Steelers (twice) and Broncos still remaining. They might need to finish 6-1 to make the playoffs, which is a tall order.
And if a team with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase can’t figure out a way to make the playoffs, how can they possibly bring Taylor back?
7. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns (Previous ranking: NR)
There’s no indication his job is in immediate trouble, and he’s really only back on this list by default. Still, it’s worth taking a hard look at the work he’s done this season, which really isn’t good at all.
The Browns have won just one of their last eight games. Stefanski couldn’t make the offense work at all with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, which is a problem since Cleveland is stuck with Watson for the next two seasons thanks to his enormous contract. Watson’s gone for the season now and his replacement, Jameis Winston, was great in his first start, against the Ravens two weeks ago. But he badly regressed with a three-interception performance last week against the Chargers.
The Browns had the bye week to regroup, and maybe they did. But after next Sunday’s game in New Orleans, they run the gauntlet facing the Steelers (twice), Broncos, Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins and Ravens the rest of the way. They only have two wins right now and they might be lucky to get two more. Then the Haslams have to decide if the Watson-Stefanski pairing can truly work, or whether they need to find a coach who can get something out of the quarterback weighing down their organization.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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