NFL hot seat index: which coaching jobs will open on Black Monday?

The NFL’s coaching carousel will officially open as soon as the final slate of games wraps up on Sunday. There are already three openings – the Jets, Saints and Bears – and Black Monday will probably see at least four new vacancies. Let’s look at the toastiest coaching seats in the league.

Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots

Replacing Bill Belichick was never going to be easy; Belichick controlled the entire Patriots building. But Jerod Mayo’s first season has been a disaster. The first-time coach botched his initial quarterback decision, has struggled with in-game management, assembled a poor staff and has been consistently undercut by communication gaffes.

There have been some doozies. From calling his team “soft”, to telling running back Antonio Gibson he would be the team’s starter before not starting him, to insisting there is “nothing” he can do for players once they take to the field. Even Nick Sirianni must wince at Mayo’s public comments.

Patriots owner Robert Kraft believed in the promise of Mayo so much that he secretly made the team’s former linebacker the head coach-in-waiting long before it was clear Belichick was on his way out. But that belief has backfired. Mayo looks woefully out of his depth, unable to navigate the strain of a season or deal with all the extracurriculars that a head coach has to deal with beyond on-the-grass coaching. The Patriots lead the league in mental lapses, pre-snap penalties, blown timeouts, special teams snafus, and my totally fictitious “did he really just say that?” stat. The Foxborough crowd has already turned.

Adding to the heat is who is available to take over. Mike Vrabel, another former Patriots linebacker, is a free agent and is reportedly interested in the New England job. Moving from Mayo to Vrabel would allow Kraft to save some face. He would still be employing a former beloved player but he would be able to bring in someone with a proven track record as a culture-builder and winner. Vrabel would be walking into a plush situation: the Patriots roster is barren, but they will have over $120m in cap space to chase free agents this offseason, lead the race for the No 1 overall pick in the draft and have a potential franchise starting quarterback in Drake Maye. That’s a solid foundation for a rebuild.

Typically, a coach is only one-and-done when they tip from a losing record into incompetence. Mayo sits squarely in the Nathaniel Hackett vortex. The only reason the Patriots would trust Mayo to see it through from here is Kraft’s arrogance.

Hot seat meter: 9/10

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

You have to hand this to Mike McCarthy: he has kept the Cowboys competitive since Dak Prescott was lost for the season with an injury. Since Micah Parsons returned from his injury, Dallas’ defense has leaped forward and the offense has been solid enough that they have been able to hang in games with playoff teams. Winning four out of five games with Cooper Rush at quarterback should not be diminished.

Early in the season, it felt like a forgone conclusion that McCarthy would be out. The vultures were circling. Agents were leaking. Now, there’s a steady drumbeat of speculation that McCarthy may have coached his way into a second chance, including from within his own locker room.

McCarthy is not an elite coach, but he’s solid. Are there better options? Sure. But will a young hot-shot, offensive mind, the kind of candidate that the Cowboys’ fan base craves, be open to working under Dallas’ particular structure? Does Ben Johnson, the top candidate on the market, want to work for Jerry Jones? Even if the Cowboys move on from McCarthy, every report indicates Dallas will look to a veteran re-tread.

That could be a good thing! More than a savvy X’s and O’s coach, the Cowboys need a cultural reset, if Jones is willing to step back and let a coach implement his style. But McCarthy can make a compelling case that he can be that guy. The Cowboys have locked in their star players and do not have a ton of wiggle room to make moves in free agency this offseason. McCarthy has shown in seasons past – and even in spurts this year – that he can tap into the best of the Cowboys stars. If anything, the failure for this season sits above the coach, with a shoddy approach to last year’s free agency and the draft to blame, something that Jones himself has admitted.

The Cowboys feel like they need something fresh, a new voice to help raise Dak Prescott to another level and remodel their defense. And McCarthy’s contract is set to expire this offseason, allowing a clean break for both sides. But there is a chance that the team canvasses the list of potential suitors and ultimately brings McCarthy back for one last run.

Hot seat meter: 7/10

Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders

Brock Bowers aside, it has been another miserable season for the Raiders. Owner Mark Davis has already refused to commit to head coach Antonio Pierce beyond this season, an interim coach who was handed the full-time gig last offseason.

Like McCarthy in Dallas, Pierce can point to failures above him as he pitches to retain his seat. The Raiders failed to address the quarterback position last year, sitting out of the top of the draft and opting to sign Gardner Minshew in free agency, who missed the bulk of the season with an injury. Where would the Raiders be if they had signed Sam Darnold instead of Minshew? What if they had been able to execute a trade-up in the draft for Michael Penix or Drake Maye, two moves they reportedly looked at in the run-up? They would have missed out on Bowers, already one of the two best players at his position in the league, but the medium-term outlook may have been brighter.

Instead, without a functional quarterback, the Raiders have been listless on offense. Pierce falls into the category of a rah-rah coach who coaches with fear. Unlike Dan Campbell, who backs up his words with punchy fourth-down calls and aggressive decisions, Pierce appears stuck in the 90s.

When he took the job, Pierce made noise about being the most physical team in the NFL. He wanted to run the ball and field a suffocating defense. And the Raiders aren’t far from that defensively: they sit sixth in rush success rate and 13th in defensive EPA/play. Given the available talent, that’s pretty damn good. But their offense has been a plodding, old-fashioned shambles. They rank dead stinking last in rush EPA/play this season, by such a margin that even the Seahawks are embarrassed. Remember: this is a team that wants to run the ball, views it as their organizational identity. There is no bigger indictment of Pierce’s tenure.

Hot seat meter: 9/10

Brian Daboll, New York Giants

Giants owner John Mara made a song and dance about retaining general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll in October. This week, he doubled down. But the Giants have disintegrated into a farce this year. Even with an outstanding draft class, the Giants have too often looked uncompetitive. In fairness, key parts of the team have been ripped apart for prolonged stretches with injuries, but there have also been plenty of self-inflicted wounds. The staff botched the benching of Daniel Jones, forcing them to release the veteran and absorb a cap hit. And this after an offseason in which they failed to pay Saquon Barkley because they had committed $40m to their quarterback.

In a vacuum, you could argue that moving on from a $12m running back after coughing up $40m for a quarterback made sense. But here, in the real world, away from the spreadsheets, the Giants have been forced to watch Barkley march towards a historic season while they have floundered around trying to scrape together 14 points.

Ordinarily, such a decision fuels social media and sports talk radio. We like to think of franchises as being smart, judging decisions by the process as much as the outcome. Firing everyone because of the fan/media backlash to letting Barkley walk is the kind of move you expect from a volatile owner, not Mara. But the indelible image of the Giants season will be from last offseason’s Hard Knocks: Mara sat like a child on a high chair, swinging his legs back and forth as he tells his general manager he really doesn’t want to see Barkley go elsewhere and return to peak form.

“I’ll have a tough time sleeping if Saquon goes to Philadelphia,” Mara said. “I’ll tell you that… He’s the most popular player we have by far.” Oof. Maybe the talk show people are right on this one.

Hot seat meter: 7/10

Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Doug Pederson was effectively fired after Jacksonville’s lackluster performance against the Bears in London in October. Since then, Pederson and the Jags have been playing out the string, biding their time before a reset in the offseason. The Jags won nine games in each of Pederson’s first two years in charge. But they have collapsed this season.

Owner Shad Khan said before the season that this version of the Jaguars was “the best team assembled” under ownership. But that best side was all but eliminated from the playoff race by November. Since the London debacle, Jacksonville have been crushed by the Lions, hammered by the Jets, fallen to the Raiders and only picked up wins over the lowly Titans and Patriots.

The more intriguing decision will be whether Khan opts to move on Trent Baalke, Jacksonville’s football czar. Baalke has routinely misfired in the draft and free agency, but retains support from ownership as the general manager who can put things right. If Baalke stays in place, the number of candidates interested in the Jacksonville coaching job will dwindle.

Khan thought the pieces were in place for a special season. Now, it’s time for a complete overhaul.

Hot seat meter: 10/10

Other coaches potentially on the hot seat: Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts; Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins; Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers; Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns; Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals