NFL Power Rankings: Commanders Spring Into Top Five

On Sunday, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson had what those of us who live behind keyboards for a living might call a moment. He was flagrant in his disregard of a question about switching playcalling duty and flippant when a reporter asked if he was concerned, at 0–4, about losing his job. While the question was sensible—the Jaguars are headed to London winless, and owner Shad Khan has long adored the idea of his team building a legitimate footprint there—who likes being asked about losing their job? 

As someone who went through a bit of employment turmoil back in the spring, I can honestly say that the near constant barrage of text messages about my ability to put food on the table at home were daunting. Even the well-meaning ones, which I found a way to spin negatively in my own mind. Thankfully, after 14 years in journalism at three different outlets, I’ve seen my fair share of mass layoffs and one develops a kind of callousness to it all. Callousness and a very deep appreciation for every day you get to do what you love. It’s a weird feeling, but it’s true that you can hold these two seemingly incongruent notions together at once. 

I remember seeing Doug Pederson at the combine doing a press conference as a newly minted head coach of the Jaguars and a reporter from Philadelphia asked him if he’d learned from his mistakes. Pederson, smirking a bit, said something to the effect of: “the mistakes in that place where I won a Super Bowl?” 

It was a unique display of cool; a kind of confidence in a business that is designed to rip your heart out over and over again. And I thought about that again on Sunday. Pederson certainly didn’t look stylish after his 0–s4 start, but he also refused to do what most coaches would have done by now: make some random firing or dismissal to keep the boss man off his back. Pederson defended Press Taylor vehemently, just like he defended many of his assistants in Philadelphia on the way out. You can call that stubborn, but when you finally get put inside the whirlwind of pending, public unemployment, it’s so hard to abide by a moral code and stand by your beliefs. And as cringeworthy as the whole deal might have seemed, I took another look at it and felt differently. 

Anyway, let’s get on to the power rankings, shall we? 

Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: beat Los Angeles Chargers, 17–10
This week: vs. New Orleans

Even without the presence of Rashee Rice, there’s a belief that Kansas City will figure it out. Maybe that means trading for someone like Amari Cooper, though I seriously doubt it. When I did this story on Travis Kelce last year, the sentiment from the coaches at the time was that the future Hall of Fame tight end still had another evolution to make. The feeling I got was that this evolution involved being even more of a point guard and a table setter than anything else. I wonder if part of his quiet 2024 to this point has been exploring that world and what it might look like for him. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Last week’s result: beat Seattle, 42–29
This week: Bye

The Lions are back to being the most fun team in the league. Thank goodness. Sometimes your coach doing a hilarious Applebee’s commercial can be the absolute kiss of death. Just ask Baker Mayfield, the star of some criminally underrated Progressive commercials in his day. Alas…QB receiving touchdowns! Step dancing after toe-tapping grabs! Leaps into the crowd! The Lions are going to the Super Bowl. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: beat Green Bay, 31–29
This week: vs. New York Jets

Attrition is good and the Vikings felt what it was like for a team to get a bead on them and come storming back in the second half against Green Bay. And still, they managed to hang on. This weekend’s matchup in London against a truly and undeniably desperate Jets team will be one to watch. Does Minnesota finally get caught sleeping? You can read more thoughts on the Vikings here, where I write about the idea that Minnesota should extend Sam Darnold. Odd timing given the opponent, no?

Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: lost to Minnesota, 31–29
This week: at Los Angeles Rams

One feels as good about the Packers as we do teams that are 3–1, or 4–0 for that matter. I’m willing to discard Green Bay’s opening loss in Brazil to greed and ridiculousness on behalf of the Packers’ employing agency and we can write off this weekend’s loss to Minnesota as Jordan Love knocking off some rust. Even when knocking off said rust—there were some undoubtedly bad moments—he can manipulate a defense with his eyes better than most active QBs in the NFL. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: beat Arizona, 42–14
This week: vs. Cleveland

What a night for Commanders fans, who truly and honestly deserve all of this. It’s no longer a wild thought to imagine the Commanders making the playoffs. Or…winning the dang NFC East outright. Their upcoming schedule has dates with middling opponents like Cleveland, Carolina, Chicago and the Giants again (sandwiched in with dates against the Ravens, Steelers, Eagles and Cowboys). While I would caution us all to give Jayden Daniels some space to grow and make mistakes, how special could this season be?

Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: beat New England, 30–13
This week: vs. Arizona

Christian McCaffrey now apparently has Achilles tendinitis in both of his legs. And while this is obviously a troubling development, and I would never say a team doesn’t need Christian McCaffrey, could Brock Purdy end up getting good enough to live with a replacement-level running back and checkdown option? Also, Purdy’s snap-to-throw times were up significantly against New England. Too much horsing around in the backfield showing off that mobility. Need to rein that in. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: beat Philadelphia, 33–16
This week: at Atlanta

I wrote this on Sunday and through the tongue and cheekiness, I hope my message was loud and clear: this team can win the Super Bowl. They are that good. I realize Tampa Bay just lost to the Broncos and that the Eagles were without their two top wide receivers. Fine. Sure. But this defense is up there with the schemes we’ve seen from Mike Macdonald, Brian Flores and Vance Joseph so far in 2024. Todd Bowles is cooking on that side of the ball and this roster is deeper than we can possibly articulate here. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: beat Buffalo, 35–10
This week: at Cincinnati

This is going to sound strange, but I don’t think there is a team in recent NFL history that has made up for a (perceived, maybe?) lack of talent at the wide receiver position by making…just about every other player in their offense an excellent wide receiver. Todd Monken and Lamar Jackson are on a heater right now. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: lost to Baltimore, 35–10
This week: at Houston

I don’t know how much stock you can put into a game in which Derrick Henry rolls an 80-plus yard run on you in the opening seconds. I suppose…don’t do that again? To me, this exposed nothing about the Bills except for their inability to keep Josh Allen out of harm’s way. Did you know coaches can go onto a database every Monday and get every trick play run…basically in the United States at any level…and this is what they chose? 

Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: beat Jaguars, 24–20
This week: vs. Buffalo

The most encouraging part of this Texans win may have been the nature of the slog. At almost no point did this game look beautiful—Stefon Diggs had to take a very cool throw back that we actually saw Jared Goff score on Monday…by himself. Even on the final touchdown play, what won the game for the Texans was an all-out commitment from everyone on that offense to sell the Jaguars on a run play to the opposite side. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: lost to Indianapolis, 27–24
This week: vs. Dallas

Justin Fields provided the totality of the Fields experience on Sunday, which I still think is preferential to going back to Russell Wilson at any point in the near future. Fields made some amateur decisions and cost the Steelers but he also made those points back and showcased his athleticism. Fields, on Sunday, amassed more total yardage on his own than the entire Indianapolis Colts team. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: lost to Detroit, 42–29
This week: vs. New York Giants

While Mike Macdonald’s defense was stressed for the first time this weekend, I left more confident about the Seahawks than when I came into this game. There’s a case to be made that each of their opening victories came with a sizable asterisk, but for most of this game the Seahawks’ offense remained in chasing distance of one of the best teams in the NFL. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: lost to Tampa Bay, 33–16
This week: Bye

Because we are in a post-superstar QB era (what do you call it in the NFL when, week in and week out, there are probably two or three consistent game-changing QBs?) I hate to get caught up in the Jalen Hurts needs to do more because…money argument. Look at what the Browns are getting out of Deshaun Watson, the Bengals out of Joe Burrow (so far), the Jaguars out of Trevor Lawrence. You’re wagering on potential and Hurts still has his moments. He’s also missing throws and doesn’t seem in the flow of the scheme. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: lost to Kansas City, 17–10
This week: Bye

Jim Harbaugh is testing the limits of his tough-guy offensive game plan strategy and, for the second straight week, J.K. Dobbins was unable to run through a defense. The Steelers and the Chiefs are not the Sun Belt and Harbaugh is gathering information as he goes. There’s no doubt this is a team that can finish the season with a winning record but the question becomes: what does it look like?  

Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: beat Pittsburgh, 27–24
This week: at Jacksonville

Anthony Richardson is day to day after taking some brutal shots against Pittsburgh on Sunday. And while he could certainly play this weekend—that’s usually what day to day means in injury parlance—is there a value in playing the long game and letting him see how Joe Flacco does it for a week? Again, Richardson is a long, long, long-term play. Why not take some in-season breaks, diversify what you’re showing on film and give Richardson time to get back to full strength?  

Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: beat Carolina, 34–24
This week: vs. Baltimore

Not sure who caught Joe Burrow on that remarkable 62-yard Ja’Marr Chase touchdown, but he flipped his back leg up a-la Aaron Rodgers on that one. I do wonder if, through all of the injuries and all of the setbacks in Burrow’s young career already, if he hasn’t had to make some of his own adjustments to keep him throwing the ball accurately and comfortably. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: beat New York Giants, 20–15
This week: at Pittsburgh

The Cowboys got out of the woods here, though I still left wondering why Mike McCarthy rushed the field goal unit on. This seemed like the Cowboys were begging to give the Giants one more crack at the end zone. Still, a win is a win and the Cowboys managed to take another step forward by winning the games they are supposed to win at bare minimum. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: beat New Orleans, 26–24
This week: vs. Tampa Bay

The Falcons are getting by and, at this point, I think we need to accept that it’s not going to look like the 2000 Rams. Just because a team collects star power doesn’t mean there is a promise that the gathering of such players is going to look like the 1992 U.S. Olympic team. And so grittiness is the order of the day for a Falcons team that we’re still not sure how good it actually is. One thing we do know, guys like Troy Andersen, who led the Falcons with 17 tackles on Sunday and is sixth in the NFL in solo tackles, are part of the reason why this season is still on the rails.  

Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: lost to Atlanta, 26–24
This week: at Kansas City

Now we’ve gotten a four-game sample of the Saints in their new offense and the results are…not terrible. Despite Derek Carr not throwing a touchdown pass on Sunday, the Saints are 12th in play by play success rate and 5th in total expected points added per play. If I gave you those numbers regardless of record at the beginning of the season as a Saints fan, how many of you would have signed up for it? 

Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: beat Los Angeles Rams, 24–18
This week: vs. Carolina

The Bears are closer to what I would call “by design.” This is another week with a fantastic play by Montez Sweat (but also some excellent interior line play to set the table for it). And another week where Caleb Williams is growing. It’s not going to look like Jayden Daniels right away and, let’s be real, Jayden Daniels is not going to look like Jayden Daniels for the entire season. I’ll still take steady progress and Williams’s evolution from a panicked, late first throw to Keenan Allen to his touchdown to D.J. Moore has been evident. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: lost to Denver, 10–9
This week: at Minnesota

I have covered football in New York long enough to sense the beginning of swirling drama. While I wouldn’t quite put the Giants and Jets there yet, Sunday’s game against Denver was a massive unforced error. We also won’t soon forget the way that Aaron Rodgers replied to the assertion that the Jets should alter their approach at the line, or how the head coach later clarified his comments. This team cannot walk on egg shells and be successful. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: lost to Washington, 42–14
This week: at San Francisco

While you have to work to cull positives from a game like this, the fact that the Kyler Murray/Marvin Harrison Jr. end zone fade game is strong…that’s something. It’s not a route for everyone and Harrison has already shown a clear nose for the end zone. Also, this was an extremely neat interception and will be a cool story to tell at Jayden Daniels’s Hall of Fame ceremony.  

Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: lost to Chicago, 24–18
This week: vs. Green Bay

If the Rams can simply hang on until the cavalry arrives, I’m not backing off my prediction that this team will make the playoffs. Not yet. I liked what I saw out of preseason favorite Jordan Whittington and we could see Matthew Stafford’s importance come into play as he brings another young receiver into the fold. The Packers aren’t what you’d want as a get-right opponent but the Raiders loom after an early bye. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: beat New York Jets, 10–9
This week: vs. Las Vegas

For the second straight week, Vance Joseph has been one of the top coordinators in the NFL. Over the last two weeks, Denver has been second in the NFL in EPA per play allowed and second in dropback success rate by an opposing quarterback. This is the kind of effort Denver is going to consistently need in order to stay afloat, but such is life when the team is absorbing a historically high amount of dead cap money.

Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: beat Cleveland, 20–16
This week: at Denver

Credit where credit is due: how often does a coach call his team out for making business decisions and have it be a sort of hidden, motivating factor? The Raiders won this game with players like Isaiah Pola-Mao and Charles Snowden. Sans Davate Adams and Maxx Crosby, they stole a W they had no business competing for. No matter how we feel on this side of the glass about how it happened, there’s no doubt it was impressive. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: lost to Dallas, 20–15
This week: at Seattle

A wholly disappointing loss for the Giants, who not only saw Malik Nabers go down, but endured another tough performance from Daniel Jones. I don’t blame Brian Daboll for taking the points in the red zone but this team needs to develop a better motivation and attitude inside the 20. There is an inevitability to good teams who score in the red zone and while the Giants are not the worst red zone team in the NFL (tied for 17th, actually), they are one of three teams with a 0% red zone scoring percentage at home. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: lost to Tennessee, 31–12
This week: at New England

This moment pretty much summed up everything. Aimless, confusing times in Miami. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: lost to Las Vegas, 20–16
This week: at Washington

This was not a loss one could pin on Deshaun Watson, even if it fits a tidier narrative for us so far this season. While I have my questions about what Watson was capable of on the last play before pressure got to him, he was thoroughly shaken from a day of relentless pressure. The Browns also had their most explosive play of the season called back on a phantom hold. So, you don’t necessarily crush the Browns here (how much lower can they really go?) but there isn’t a ton of good to cull from a loss to the Raiders.

Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: lost to Houston, 24–20
This week: vs. Indianapolis

I think we’ve said all there is to say on the Jaguars, be it our column last week on the subject or up top. Or here. But here’s the reality of the situation: ownership was sold on a not-so-great roster surrounding a QB that isn’t quite there yet and the coaching staff is going to get skewered for it. It’s the nature of the business, but wrap that all in an unforgiving schedule and you’re looking at Jacksonville and a top-five pick this spring. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: beat Miami, 31–12
This week: bye

The Will Levis experiment seems to be over in Nashville barring injury. Like Dave Canales in Carolina, there was only so much time Brian Callahan could spend trying to fix a quarterback who may be a little ways away. Mason Rudolph was not spectacular and the Titans practiced against a version of this defense all summer but the absolute backbreaking plays are gone for now. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: lost to San Francisco, 30–13
This week: vs. Miami

Jerod Mayo can’t quite say it out loud, but his comments on Jacoby Brissett after a 49ers game in which Brissett looked absolutely exhausted, said it all. “I will never question his toughness, his dependability, his leadership style for this team—and that’s what we need right now.” Toughness being the word we want to underline. Drake Maye isn’t getting thrown into this right now. 

Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: lost to Cincinnati, 34–24
This week: at Chicago

Carolina did give Cincinnati a game and their win over Las Vegas is looking better by the week. I do wonder if Andy Dalton plays himself into an interesting situation. The Browns, I’d bet, would like to have the Joe Flacco decision back. Veteran QB play is a valuable commodity. Could Dalton have a runway here in Carolina?