NFL Power Rankings: Most Expected Super Bowl Contenders Looking Strong

Week 1 of the 2024 season has now concluded. What did we learn? 

We should kind of overreact. The Kansas City Chiefs look unstoppable and now have this cadre of young skill-position players that could buoy the offense and accentuate Patrick Mahomes for the next decade. We should also not overreact at all. The Dallas Cowboys look unstoppable but, much like they did last year, gained a reputation by walloping teams with adrift quarterbacks and injury disasters across the offensive line. 

The Detroit Lions look unstoppable and flipped the rest of the NFL a middle finger by running David Montgomery down the Los Angeles Rams’ throat. The New Orleans Saints look unstoppable but played a Carolina Panthers team that came into Week 1 with one of the worst rosters we’ve seen in recent memory. 

What holds true? What’s real and what isn’t? That’s why there are 16 more of these. Thanks again for joining Sports Illustrated and The MMQB in a power rankings journey sure to produce laughs, tears and a fair amount of updates on Taysom Hill exploits. We are as excited as you. Let’s get into it. 

Last week: beat Baltimore, 27–20
This week: vs. Cincinnati

How terrifying for the Chiefs’ opponents that Rashee Rice has matured (on the field) into an incredibly dangerous and lengthy receiver who looks to be a yards-after-the-catch monster. Xavier Worthy is terrifying on a whole different level, giving the Chiefs an all-of-a-sudden set of legitimate stylistic complements who can mix speed and power. Travis Kelce, as he gets older, can evolve more comfortably into a role as a table setter for completions elsewhere. Every year, it seems Patrick Mahomes is having to “break in” part of a team and, certainly, having one of his anchor tackles be a rookie second-round pick is a challenge, but this already looks like the most complete Chiefs team we’ve seen in a few years. 

Last week: beat Los Angeles Rams, 26–20 (OT)
This week: vs. Tampa Bay

How much of a flex was Dan Campbell’s team taking the overtime coin flip and absolutely jamming the ball down the Rams’ throats? The fact that Detroit can call on this physicality and ride it like a superpower during the more rigorous moments of the game should have put the league on notice. If that wasn’t scary enough, Jameson Williams is as good as advertised and is playing like he heard all the snide remarks while he rehabbed from a draft year torn ACL. 

Last week: beat New York Jets, 32–19
This week: at Minnesota

Monday night was a thorough beatdown and confidence builder for the 49ers who were playing without Christian McCaffrey and still managed to dismantle a Jets team that scored the first touchdown after an impressive first-quarter drive. Brock Purdy maintained composure and Kyle Shanahan showed that, for at least this moment in time, he still has the most versatile set of killer skill position players in the NFL. 

Last week: beat Arizona, 34–28
This week: at Miami

The Bills got five quarterback hits and four sacks, three of them from Greg Rousseau. We can talk all we want about Josh Allen running and how much it scares us (and it does!). But, if Buffalo’s defense can play free and get after the quarterback like they’ve been trying to since the “13 Seconds” loss to Kansas City, we might have something here. It’s always encouraging to see a team that strips itself of familiar players find a new identity underneath, and there was definitely a freshness to this Bills victory. 

Last week: beat Green Bay, 34–29
This week: vs. Atlanta

The Eagles scored an absolute must-have victory in the toughest of spots—a slick field thousands of miles from home on a weird night followed by strange travel circumstances–-and for at least one week stiff-armed concerns that they were continuing an end of season freefall that nearly prompted a coaching change. It was not perfect. Center-QB exchanges were sloppy. Hurts still appears to be finding himself post-Shane Steichen. But they are surviving and buoyed by the versatility of Saquon Barkley out of the backfield. 

Last week: lost to Philadelphia, 34–29
This week: vs. Indianapolis

Jordan Love’s availability obviously impacts how we feel about this team long term, but I still can’t stop thinking about the receiver depth and how it produces a stunning related statistic: Josh Jacobs ran against eight or more defenders in the box on just 6% of his 16 carries, according to NextGenStats. Only one player, David Montgomery, had a better percentage Week 1. This James Conner/Cardinals effect could yield some massive rushing numbers once Love returns to the lineup healthy. 

Last week: lost to Kansas City, 27–20
This week: vs. Las Vegas

I was pretty all right with Baltimore’s debut against Kansas City all things considered. Some deeper thoughts here, but after assessing all that went wrong and considering that the Ravens were a toenail from possibly tying—or winning—the game at the end of regulation, this was as good a start as Baltimore could have hoped for (outside of a victory). I’m optimistic we won’t still be talking about the offensive line turnover a few weeks from now. 

Last week: lost to Detroit, 26–20 (OT)
This week: at Arizona

The Cooper Kupp stop-and-go motion concept toward the end of Sunday night’s game on his touchdown against the Lions was a great example of how difficult it’s going to be to ever rid ourselves of this team and why they will always be tough and competitive. I picked the Rams to win the division and still feel confident even if Puka Nacua is lost for an extended period of time. It’s not about finding star wide receivers, it’s about teaching them to block and getting them on the same page as Matthew Stafford. One is easier than the other. 

Last week: beat Cleveland, 33–17
This week: vs. New Orleans

Good on the Cowboys, who continue to find themselves gifted with wounded doves to pound on at the beginning of the season. Last year it was the Giants, Jets and Patriots over a four-game stretch. This year, it’s the absolutely out-of-it Deshaun Watson and a pair of backup tackles for the Browns. That shouldn’t take away from a different but still creative gameplan from Mike Zimmer, who made his glorious return to football with six sacks of Deshaun Watson. 

Last week: beat Indianapolis, 29–27
This week: vs. Chicago

At least through one game, the Texans’ offseason diagnosis of their team was dead on. Another top-flight wide receiver and the addition of a hammering back with pass catching ability is a total game-changer for the evolving C.J. Stroud. Stroud worked almost all corners of the field effectively and continues to set himself head and shoulders above the QB class of 2023. 

Last week: beat Atlanta, 18–10
This week: at Denver

Holding on to Russell Wilson makes some degree of sense, but only out of fear that Justin Fields may get hurt. It’s time to build an offense around Fields and allow Arthur Smith to turn him loose as an athlete. While we’re putting a lot on the continued health of T.J. Watt and this veteran Steelers defense, they don’t need much, as we saw against Atlanta. Fields has the potential, the higher ceiling and the ability to more readily mesh with a fully-integrated run/pass offense that can get more out of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. I like Pittsburgh’s early season schedule and the slate of AFC North teams packed at the end of the season may not be so tough after all. 

Last week: beat Jacksonville, 20–17
This week: vs. Buffalo

The Dolphins faced some serious attrition early in the game. Mike McDaniel talks a lot about adversity and this is a nice yield sign for a team that normally outscores its opponents over the early months like they play in the Sun Belt. The Jaguars helped with some critical mistakes but, like the Bills, Miami got some critical contributions from a defense that needed some early-season flowers to build confidence. 

Last week: beat Washington, 37–20
This week: at Detroit

That was a stunning, commanding performance for Baker Mayfield, who continues to take last year’s momentum and ride with it. The ageless Mike Evans was just as impressive, punishing a questionable Commanders secondary. Take nothing away from Tampa here, though: Jayden Daniels in his first start with Kliff Kingsbury returning from college to call plays was a challenge of the unknown. 

Last week: lost to New England, 16–10
This week: at Kansas City

The Bengals continue to dig themselves early-season holes from which to try to fight. Against the plucky Patriots, this team was flat-footed and struggled from the start to match New England’s energy and competence. It doesn’t help when a pre-halftime touchdown is wiped away by a dagger of a fumble and the other team is buoyed by a ball-control quarterback and experienced veteran running back. 

Last week: beat Las Vegas, 22–10
This week: at Carolina

This wasn’t a flawless victory for the Chargers but it was the first step in a long process that will prolong Justin Herbert’s career and save his inner assassin for only the dire moments. Being steeped in the college game is invaluable for coaches who have an eye for allowing quarterbacks to do less and get more at the same time. 

Last week: lost to San Francisco, 32–19
This week: at Tennessee

We will see how Aaron Rodgers continues to knock off the rust. His backfield mobility was surprisingly limited on Monday against the 49ers. I say surprising because Rodgers looked good at practices when I was able to see him and he seemed as spry as ever. Part of that is probably just rediscovering comfort after a long time spent rehabbing. The 49ers have worked just about every team in the NFL and I would never bet against Kyle Shanahan facing his former defensive coordinator. So, let’s give it one more week before we freak out … right? 

Last week: lost to Houston, 29–27
This week: at Green Bay

Juxtaposing C.J. Stroud’s spray chart with Anthony Richardson’s would seem to be a bit of cruelty but I disagree: I think Richardson has all the difficult parts of the QB game sorted out. He’s got God-given size and traits. Speed. Fearlessness. From there, learning to work the middle of the field should take time but it won’t be impossible. Shane Steichen has a kind of reverse Jalen Hurts surgery to perform on his quarterback but Sunday showed that both coach and QB are up for the challenge. 

Last week: beat New York Giants, 28–6
This week: vs. San Francisco

Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores continue to set themselves apart as one of the great play-caller tandems in the NFL. From both sides, Week 1 was a masterful performance that absolutely clipped the Giants early and squeezed the home team into impossible situations, long passing downs and general hopelessness after just a half of football. Sam Darnold didn’t throw an incomplete pass until near halftime. He doesn’t look anything like the player the Jets and Panthers were sure had no long-term prospects. Imagine that. 

Last week: beat Tennessee, 24–17
This week: at Houston

We saw a handful of very rookie moments from Caleb Williams. A snippet from just one drive in the first quarter with a little more than six minutes to play: Williams skied a throw to Keenan Allen, picked up a fourth down conversion on a tight pass that demanded a quick decision and accuracy, then he lost a ton of yards by trying to escape Sebastian Joseph-Day by doing what looked like an Olympic floor exercise. Then, by the third quarter, Williams was (sometimes) playing like a 10-year veteran. His juke on Ernest Jones was spectacular; so subtle but such an amazing learned skill. He also picked up just enough yards on a third-and-14 to get the Bears in position for a field goal. 

Last week: lost to Pittsburgh, 18–10
This week: at Philadelphia

I wonder now if we have a little grace for Art Smith. We’ve been screaming about Atlanta’s weapons for three years now but even with the plugging in of a veteran “sure thing” quarterback, the offense still stalled. Cousins can do things Desmond Ridder cannot do, among them a few of his targeted rips on the opening drive, like the one to Darnell Mooney. But I will continue to maintain that this offense will not hit its full potential without a mobile quarterback. No other opponent is going to have T.J. Watt, but the Falcons were powerless when it came to the powerful edge rusher. 

Last week: beat Carolina, 47–10
This week: at Dallas

Let’s see what the Saints have now that they’ve gotten this win over the AAA Charlotte Knights. The major league schedule is coming up. Still, I loved the utilization of Rashid Shaheed as the team’s streaking, vertical threat, which yielded an early touchdown and spread out the Panthers’ defense. Derek Carr looked really comfortable in this system and even lowered his shoulder on a scramble. He looks confident and free and also not held hostage by his offensive coordinator as was previously the case. The defense was at the driving range all afternoon. 

Last week: lost to Dallas, 33–17
This week: at Jacksonville

When it comes to the Browns in totality, I think we need to keep the pinata club in the bag for at least another week or so. And if you’ve read my work, I’m sure you’ll find that as surprising as my editors. However, we’ve seen what a Micah Parsons team can do against a team with a bad tackle situation. Just watch the Giants and Jets from early season last year. Or, ask the Browns, who puffed their chests after thumping a one-legged Joe Burrow last year in the opener. 

The quarterback is a separate issue altogether. Another accuser has come forward and sued Watson for sexual assault and battery stemming from an alleged incident in October of 2020. The league declined to comment when I reached out to them Monday afternoon asking if the new civil suit could trigger the reopening of the Watson investigation, or if a new investigation could arise. 

Last week: lost to Miami, 20–17
This week: vs. Cleveland

The Jacksonville Jaguars are, ironically, giving off heavy Chargers vibes. A quarterback with a high ceiling that has not been realized. Brief playoff appearances. Perpetual hype and limited delivery. We know how that ended. Now, how does this season end? Well, after the Jaguars go to battle with Cleveland this coming weekend, they take on … Cleveland, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Houston, Chicago, New England, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit and Houston all in a row. That is an absolutely gruesome and unforgivable stretch of football. If they start the season 0–2, watch out. 

Last week: lost to Buffalo, 34–28
This week: vs. Los Angeles Rams

Nothing I saw against the Bills on Sunday would force me to back down on my thought that Arizona could win eight or nine games and contend for a fringe playoff spot this year. Kyler Murray needs to do a better job of protecting the football but I can see how a momentum-turning performance by the Bills defense in Buffalo is difficult to contend with. There is a lot of receiving talent on this roster that did not get its proper work on Sunday and one has to imagine that when the Cardinals put their mid-range passing game together with a true vertical offense, they’ll be more formidable. 

Last week: beat Denver, 26–20
This week: at New England

That was one of those games that is just good to survive, as I think Mike Macdonald would agree. I don’t want to get into the lip reading game but he was clearly relieved to have emerged victorious despite a game that featured so many errors—including a pair of safeties in close succession. Picks, sacks, false starts, you name it. The Seahawks caused them and the underwhelming Broncos provided plenty of room for error. Let’s see what happens when this offense gets in the groove and starts to operate as planned. 

Last week: beat Cincinnati, 16–10
This week: vs. Seattle

Jerod Mayo gets a game ball and a well-deserved one. If you followed our predictions of all 272 games from this August, this was an upset special we called a few weeks ago. Why? Because the Bengals start slow, Joe Burrow is coming into live game speed for the first time in months and he’s playing with a new offensive coordinator. And the Patriots had been hearing for months about how they could be bad enough to have the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft.

One lingering issue from this game that absolutely fascinates me: What happens to Bill Belichick’s very public private campaign for a new job the more that this team continues to win games?

Last week: lost to Tampa Bay, 37–20
This week: vs. New York Giants

Jayden Daniels ran a great deal and protected himself and the football. With limited resources at the wide receiver position, this season will be about how the Commanders can accentuate his best NFL skills while keeping him healthy and on an upward trajectory. Sunday was difficult because the Commanders often found themselves in third-and-forever scenarios which called for gimmick plays like the Luke McCaffrey fake throwback or some aimless improve-the-punt scrambles. 

Last week: lost to Chicago, 24–17
This week: vs. New York Jets

Closing out games is a skill and Brian Callahan learned some important lessons on Sunday. I think Will Levis did, too. Just like Caleb Williams was able to survive and thrive by certain feats of athleticism in college and in the preseason, so, too, was Levis, who still has a rookie database in terms of experience. The pick-six that cost Tennessee the game and the lead was about as bad of a cardinal sin a quarterback can commit. 

Last week: lost to Minnesota, 28–6
This week: at Washington

Some additional points made by Michael David Smith at Pro Football Talk on Daniel Jones made me angry I did not include them in my column Sunday advocating for Jones’s benching. Here they are: 

If Jones gets hurt, a big chunk of his salary for next year triggers. Jones has won a single game and thrown three pick-sixes since signing his new contract. Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito have both won more games and thrown fewer pick-sixes in that time. 

And, to add to MDS’s assessment, I’ll say this: The way Jones has to play in order to succeed—mobile, part of the running game—will almost certainly get him hurt. As the Week 1 overreaction buzz wears off, I am more inclined to say he should get another crack against a middling Commanders team. But there’s also an advantage to giving Drew Lock that start to build confidence before a hellish stretch. 

Last week: lost to Seattle, 26–20
This week: vs. Pittsburgh

I normally detest coach speak, but I thought Sean Payton was oddly right on the money with his evaluation of Bo Nix: The game did not look too big for him. I believe this. We have to take everything into context. Denver had no rushing game and this team is very limited as far as weapons go. Nix was surviving and also made some excellent throws. And while you could say that about Zach Wilson or Johnny Manziel during their rookie seasons, there seemed to be more of an undercurrent of calm and understanding with Nix. 

Last week: lost to Los Angeles Chargers, 22–10
This week: at Baltimore

So begins Day 2 of the Antonio Pierce defend-the-punt tour. My take: Fourth down isn’t about analytics anymore. It’s about belief. Pierce earned the job because of his ability to turn a gruesome situation into a positive one. This takes back a bit of the progress. Of course, we can’t have this criticism both ways. A coach like Dan Campbell gets praised for his instance on fourth down attempts and Brandon Staley gets fried. What matters is that you convert. I would have liked to have seen Pierce try and convert before ultimately deciding whether to become more conservative or aggressive. 

Last week: lost to New Orleans, 47–10
This week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The good: I didn’t see anything on Sunday that led me to believe that the Panthers were unprepared. We’ve had new NFL head coaches that come in, get smoked and we later find out they’ve been, you know, kicking their players or wondering who Aaron Donald is. 

The bad: I didn’t see much salvageable talent from the previous regime and I am wondering how Bryce Young is going to weather these next 16 games. I think this team can improve from a skills perspective and an attitude/culture perspective but still very much be in line for the No. 1 overall pick.