Noel’s Weekend Winners: Grass is Greener Saturday for 3-Year-Old Fillies

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel’s selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA’s SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, Oct. 5

Three-year-old fillies take center stage at the stakes level this Saturday with the featured races at both Keeneland Race Course and Belmont at the Big A carded for 3-year-old fillies on the turf. This weekend’s blog will focus on both of those races, the $200,000 Sands Point Stakes at Belmont at the Big A and the $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Dixiana at Keeneland Race Course. Let’s get a look at the best of what the 3-year-old turf filly division has to offer this Saturday, while making some money at the same time. Good luck and enjoy the races.

Belmont at the Big A, Race 5, $200,000 Sands Point Stakes, post time 2:13 p.m. ET

The Grade 2 Sands Point features a seven-horse field set to race 1 1/8 miles on the Aqueduct turf course. They say that “pace makes the race,” and based on the pace, or lack thereof, this race could set-up for an upset. #4 Macanga is a flat-out lone speed horse in a race that is otherwise completely devoid of a front-runner. Macanga got the lead in her last two races and it wasn’t enough to help, but those losses were at longer distances and last time, in particular, she went way too far ahead early and emptied her stamina reserve. This time, she’ll be alone on the lead at 1 1/8 miles, and if she is allowed to get away with murder on a slow pace, she could steal this win at a price. If the pace in the race is not enough to make Macanga a winner, then you can revert to the other horses in this race that are most likely to win. The favorites, #2 Spaliday trained by Chad Brown and #6 Style Points trained by Christophe Clement, are the horses to beat. Spaliday won the Boiling Springs stakes at Monmouth Park two races ago and then fell short with her rally in the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes Presented by Caesars Sportsbook at Saratoga last time at 1 1/16 miles behind two horses that will be amongst the favorites in Saturday’s Grade 1 QEII Cup. At this longer 1 1/8-mile distance today, and without those stronger rivals in the race, Spaliday will be tough to deny. Style Points exits a dead heat win in the $255,000 Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs, has some pace versatility to stay at least within shouting distance of the front, and is dangerous with a repeat of that most recent effort.

The Play: Bet on #4 Macanga (6-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #2 Spaliday (9-5) and #6 Style Points (2-1).

Keeneland, Race 8, $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Dixiana, post time 4:44 p.m. ET

The Grade 1 QEII Challenge Cup is perhaps the definitive stakes race in North America for 3-year-old fillies on the turf, and in 2024 it has drawn a quality 10-horse field ready to run 1 1/8 miles on the grass. The morning-line favorite is #3 She Feels Pretty, who is a strong contender in the race based on a solid season at the stakes level after finishing third in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She Feels Pretty has been a beaten favorite in three of her last four races, however, and others in this race seem like better win bets in this wide-open field that is loaded with contenders. Trainer Chad Brown sends two major challengers and the winner of this race should come from one of them. Brown’s #9 Grayosh beat She Feels Pretty last time when winning the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga, yet is listed as an overlay on the morning line at 8-1. Brown’s other trainee, #6 Oversubscribed with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, also looks good exiting a runner-up finish in Saratoga’s Grade 3 Lake George Stakes, in which she ran out of ground closing at one mile. She’ll have another furlong to work with today. There are two European invaders in this field – #5 Soprano and #10 Candala – and a legit case could be made for betting either of them based on their credentials. Neither of them seems to be entered at their optimal distance, however, as 1 1/8 miles could be too short for Candala and too far for Soprano at this level of competition.

The Play: Bet #9 Grayosh (8-1) to win and use her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #3 She Feels Pretty (5-2) and #6 Oversubscribed (6-1).