Noel’s Weekend Winners: Saturday 3-Year-Old Sprint Stakes at Keeneland

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel’s selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA’s SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

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4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
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The Keeneland fall meet is in full swing and this Saturday will feature a headline 10-race card of top-notch racing and wagering that is typical of the autumn season’s premier race meet. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on the two graded stakes races on Keeneland’s Saturday card, the Grade 3 Perryville Stakes and the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes. Both races feature big fields and will be fun to watch for bettors and racing fans alike. Enjoy your weekend, and best of luck at Keeneland.

Saturday, Oct. 19

Keeneland Race Course, Race 7, $300,000 Perryville Stakes, post time 4:12 p.m. ET

The Grade 3 Perryville Stakes will feature a full field of colts and geldings that will be competing for a $300,000 purse on the Keeneland main track. This will be a spotlight race, in part, because it will mark the return to the races of a pair of high-profile horses that have been absent for all or part of this year – but while the presence of those horses will raise interest in this race, those horses may not be the horses to beat this Saturday. Notable in the field will be #10 Locked, who was last seen finishing third in last fall’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA after his Grade 1 win here at Keeneland in the 2023 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, and also #3 Knightsbridge, who was extremely promising in two career starts until going to the sidelines following a win at Gulfstream Park back on March 28. These horses appear to be so talented that they could easily win this race based on their impressive abilities, but they won’t be good bets in this Grade 3 sprint spot in their first races back from long layoffs. #12 Epic Ride, who was third in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes earlier this year, also falls into this category. Those horses’ best efforts could be forthcoming in subsequent outings if not on Saturday. In terms of betting the Perryville, #5 Book’em Danno is a legitimate top choice. Book’em Danno has been a sprint/middle-distance monster all year long who boasts three straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures coming into this race and owns a Grade 1 win three races ago in the Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun at seven furlongs at Saratoga. A good choice for the exacta is #1 Henro, who is not only the winner of this year’s $250,000 Iowa Derby but also the winner of Churchill Downs’ $295,000 Harrod’s Creek Stakes at this seven-furlong distance in his last start. Finally, out of the aforementioned trio of stars returning from layoffs, the best bet in terms of today’s race is Knightsbridge, whose two wins came by a combined total of 19 ½ lengths in races at seven furlongs and one mile.

The Play: Bet on #5 Book’em Danno (2-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 Henro (12-1) and #3 Knightsbridge (3-1).

Keeneland Race Course, Race 9, $350,000 Lexus Raven Run Stakes, post time 5:16 p.m. ET

The Grade 2 Raven Run is the 3-year-old filly counterpart of the Perryville to be run at seven furlongs with a field of 10. The favorite and horse to beat is #5 Emery, who is enough of a standout that she may have scared some of the other top challengers in the division away from this race. Emery exits a runner-up finish in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Test Stakes when beaten only by repeat next-out winner Ways and Means. That race ended Emery’s three race winning streak in races ranging from six furlongs to seven furlongs that included a $170,000 stakes win at Churchill Downs and a win in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes at Saratoga for trainer Brad Cox. Emery should be able to get back into the winner’s circle against Saturday’s competition as the favorite. For the exacta and trifecta, the logical horses look like #3 My Mane Squeeze and #1 Fibber, who were the 1-2 finishers of the seven-furlong, Grade 3 Fasig-Tipton Dogwood Stakes Sept. 21 at Churchill Downs.

The Play: Bet #5 Emery (7-5) to win and use her on top in the exactas and trifectas above #1 Fibber (10-1) and #3 My Mane Squeeze (4-1).