Ohio State vs. Texas odds: 2025 Cotton Bowl spread, preview for College Football Playoff semifinal game

The first College Football Playoff semifinal is set as (8) Ohio State and (5) Texas will meet in the Cotton Bowl on Friday, Jan. 10 with a spot in the College Football Playoff National Championship on the line. This will be just the fourth meeting all-time, and the first since 2009, between two of the sport’s most storied program. 

Texas kept its College Football Playoff march alive in a thrilling 39-31 double overtime win against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. The Longhorns led by as much as 24-8 in the fourth quarter before a late Sun Devils rally, paced by star running back Cam Skattebo, sent the game to overtime. The two teams traded blows in the first period as Texas scored its game-saving touchdown on fourth-and-13. 

The Longhorns opened the second overtime period with a touchdown and then forced a turnover on Arizona State’s next possession to seal the deal. 

Ohio State marched right through its Rose Bowl showdown against Oregon, avenging a 32-31 regular-season loss with an easy 41-21 win. The Buckeyes led wire-to-wire and even jumped out to a 34-0 advantage before sitting on that lead and playing things safe down the stretch. 

Interestingly, both Ohio State and Texas beat teams that had first-round byes. So far, College Football Playoff teams that played a first-round game are 3-0. 

What to know about Ohio State 

Behind one of the most talented rosters in college football, Ohio State has flexed its muscles during an impressive playoff run. The Buckeyes won their first two postseason games by a combined score of 83-38. In both instances, they jumped out to a big 21-plus point, first-half lead and never took their foot off the gas, making a statement after such a lackluster close to the regular season. 

A big reason behind Ohio State’s dominance thus far has been an offensive resurgence, keyed by a renewed focus on star freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes went to Smith early and often in the quarterfinal against Oregon — he had five catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns in the first two quarters alone — as he caught his 13th and 14th touchdowns of the year, a new Big Ten record for a freshman. Smith has 13 catches for 290 yards and four touchdowns during Ohio State’s CFP run. 

Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson has also hit another gear. Against Tennessee and Oregon, teams that boast two of the nation’s top defenses, Henderson has rushed for 174 yards and four touchdowns. He’s averaging 9.8 yards per carry and has had four runs of at least 20 yards — three of which have gone for touchdowns. 

The defense has certainly played up to standard. Oregon allowed 13 sacks through its first 13 games. Ohio State got to Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel eight times. Ohio State defensive lineman Jack Sawyer, who had two sacks and three pass breakups against Oregon, is playing some of the best football of his career while leading a ferocious defensive front. 

What to know about Texas 

As evidenced by its three-week postseason journey thus far, Texas is a very inconsistent team. The Longhorns had a chance to win the SEC Championship Game against Georgia — especially when starting quarterback Carson Beck left with an injury — but crumbled late. They almost blew a big lead against Clemson in the College Football Playoff first round, and then they did blow a big lead against Arizona State in the quarterfinal before rallying to keep their national title hopes alive. 

If the Cotton Bowl comes down to a game-winning kick, the Longhorns could be in trouble. The normally sure-footed Bert Auburn struggled mightily in the Peach Bowl against Arizona State, missing two potentially decisive field goal attempts in the last 1:40. That included his first miss from under 40 yards on the year. 

The Longhorns are led on offense by former Ohio State signee and No. 1 overall prospect Quinn Ewers. Ewers, who transferred to Texas in 2022, has been the starting quarterback since. 

Like Ohio State, though, Texas can lean on its defense. The Longhorns were uncharacteristically sloppy against the Sun Devils, but they’ve got a front that stands firm against the run with the ability to get after the passer. True freshman edge rusher Colin Simmons is already emerging as one of the top defenders in college football, and linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. flies to the ball at every level of the field. 

Not that Texas lacks for playmakers in the secondary. Thorpe Award-winning defensive back Jahdae Barron is sticky in coverage, while safety Andrew Mukuba, who had the game-winning interception against Arizona State, can erase plays on the backend. 

2025 Cotton Bowl odds, prediction 

The Cotton Bowl presents two teams on an entirely different trajectory. In many ways, Texas was lucky to get past Arizona State after some poor late-game management and a miraculous fourth-down touchdown in overtime. Ohio State, meanwhile, has cruised its way through arguably the toughest College Football Playoff path on the bracket. The Buckeyes are playing at a different level than every other team in the field thus far, and there’s good reason to believe that they should be able to handle the Longhorns with relative ease. Pick: Ohio State -4.5