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Opinion | As world population shrinks, prepare for seismic changes

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Opinion | As world population shrinks, prepare for seismic changes

It would still be the world’s second most populous country – after India with a projected 1.505 billion people in 2100, down from a peak of around 1.7 billion in the 2050s – but Pakistan (511 million) and Nigeria (477 million) with their fast-growing populations would be hard on its heels.
No wonder the world’s largest manufacturing economy is moving fast to replace manual labour with robots, automation and advanced technology.
A seismic contraction of China’s population would have massive global ramifications. It prompted the UN to revise its 2100 population forecast down by 700 million from a decade ago to just 10.2 billion, falling from a peak of 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.

24:07

Why China’s population crisis has already begun

Why China’s population crisis has already begun

China is one of 63 countries and areas with declining populations. By 2054, the list will include another 48, leaving 126 with growing populations, including India, Indonesia, Pakistan and the United States.

But the consequences of this shift are huge and probably irreversible despite the earnest efforts of governments (including our own) to lift fertility rates. The UN report is clear: “All populations are following a similar path towards longer lives and smaller families.”

Falling fertility rates are by far the largest force transforming the world’s communities. Back in 1990, the average number of children a woman would have was 3.31 but today, the fertility rate is 2.25 and is fast heading below 2.1, the rate needed to keep the world population stable.
The UN report identifies one fifth of all countries as already at “ultra-low fertility” – below 1.4 – with Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan among the lowest. “By the late 2030s, half of the women in countries with populations that have already peaked will be too old to have children by natural means,” it said.
By the early 2070s, 80 per cent of women in Hong Kong will be over 50 – which means our government is spitting in the wind if it believes it can reverse the collapsing fertility trend. The ramifications for families will be huge: apart from a surging total of childless families, it will mean fewer grandchildren, aunts and uncles, cousins, nephews and nieces, and the emaciation of family gatherings for yum cha and the Lunar New Year.

03:05

Hong Kong halves buyer’s stamp duty for non-residents as part of measures to boost economy

Hong Kong halves buyer’s stamp duty for non-residents as part of measures to boost economy

Apart from collapsing fertility rates, three forces are hard at work transforming global communities: a longer life expectancy, urbanisation and migration.

Over the past three decades, improvements in healthcare and disease control have lifted life expectancy by 8.4 years around the world to 73.3. Despite the pandemic blip, the UN predicts that global life expectancy will reach 77.4 years by 2054, with more than half of the world’s population living beyond 80.

For most economies with post-growth populations, “the time-bound window of opportunity for accelerated economic growth associated with a youthful population and declining fertility has already closed”, the report said.

Inevitably, this means more old people. By 2080, there will be more aged 65 and older than under-18s. If ageist prejudices prevail – pushing older people out of the workforce, forcing them to become a community “burden” in need of pensions and triggering mounting healthcare costs – population ageing is set to be increasingly problematic.

07:48

Hong Kong has the world’s highest life expectancy, here’s why

Hong Kong has the world’s highest life expectancy, here’s why

This sets the scene for an urgent imperative to re-engage the “silver population” – exploiting modern technologies to enable them to stay in work, facilitating reskilling, and investing in health systems that encourage people to stay healthy rather than to simply keep them alive.

Perhaps the most important force for managing the massive demographic shifts ahead – but the most controversial political elephant in the room – is migration.

By 2054, according to the United Nations, immigration will be the most important driver of population growth in over 50 countries, including Australia, Canada, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the US. Contraction due to emigration will be a significant influence in a further 14 countries and areas – including Hong Kong, where over 5 per cent of potential births are likely to be lost to emigration.
Embracing this migratory inevitability may be key to managing the seismic population revolution, though the turbid and xenophobic hostilities to migration that drive politics in the US, France, Britain and many other economies could jeopardise the successful management of opportunities arising from migration.

The good news is that this momentous transition may provide important relief as we try to contain global warming and reduce the environmental stress of our expanding footprint. As Stephanie Feldstein at the Centre for Biological Diversity noted in Scientific American, fewer workers and consumers could be good: “Population decline is only a threat to an economy based on growth.”

David Dodwell is CEO of the trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access, focused on developments and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific over the past four decades

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