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Opinion | US, China owe the world their best effort to avert war in East Asia

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3 weeks ago

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Opinion | US, China owe the world their best effort to avert war in East Asia

These agreements could pave the way for a formal trilateral military alliance in response to a regional conflict.

The source of war in East Asia is brewing. Russia, China and North Korea, three nationalist authoritarian regimes, see war as necessary for regime survival when it is at risk. The war in Ukraine is crucial for the legitimacy of Putin’s regime, and failure could cost him everything. For President Xi Jinping, reunifying Taiwan is a significant source of legitimacy for the Communist Party of China. Regime survival is also paramount for North Korea, where Kim would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if his regime’s survival was threatened.

This contrasts with Western liberal democracies, where politics is more fluid and subject to regular elections. In a nutshell, these three authoritarian regimes are ready for war if their regime survival is threatened.

The world is not facing a new Cold War but rather a large-scale hot war. The first shot might have been Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which could escalate and expand to eastern Europe, potentially followed by conflicts in the Korean peninsula and across the Taiwan Strait. The two military blocs will be the warring parties.

03:11

Mainland China launches PLA blockade around Taiwan, 3 days after William Lai speech

Mainland China launches PLA blockade around Taiwan, 3 days after William Lai speech

It will not just be conventional warfare. It is likely to involve nuclear warfare since all the major warring parties, including the United States, Russia, China and North Korea, are nuclear powers. Japan and South Korea could quickly become nuclear powers as well.
Such a war will not be confined to East Asia but could extend globally, at least across the vast Eurasian continent. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could involve the entirety of Nato if the conflict extends to eastern Europe. The conflict across the Taiwan Strait could escalate into a direct military confrontation between China and the US, potentially involving Southeast Asian countries and others across the Asia-Pacific.
The looming conflict in East Asia involves simultaneous tensions in the Korean peninsula and the Taiwan Strait, revealing a complex web of regional security ties. China considers Taiwan an integral part of its territory, while it views North Korea as a strategic buffer.

China has put forth substantial efforts to defend Korea in a variety of conflicts throughout history, such as the Imjin War and the first Sino-Japanese war. These were not only about territorial integrity but also influenced the fate of Taiwan. For instance, China’s inability to protect Korea in the first Sino-Japanese war led to the loss of Taiwan to Japan.

03:05

Putin, Kim sign ‘strongest ever’ defence treaty amid growing tensions with the West

Putin, Kim sign ‘strongest ever’ defence treaty amid growing tensions with the West

Even when successful, these military efforts often came at a great cost, such as the heavy toll of the Korean war. Should Beijing decide to use military force to reunify with Taiwan, it is likely that North Korea and Russia would be critical allies, emphasising the strategic link between the security situations in Taiwan and the Korean peninsula.

The key to preventing war in East Asia is for democratic countries to engage in dialogue with the three authoritarian regimes without threatening their regime stability. If the survival of their regimes is at risk, war becomes inevitable and the consequences could be catastrophic for the world. It would be a strategic mistake for the West to set regime change as the goal.

China holds the key to peace as it possesses all the leverage needed to persuade Russia and North Korea not to take extreme actions. China is the largest trading partner and a major provider of foreign aid to North Korea. It is also Russia’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at US$240 billion last year, marking a 26 per cent increase over the previous year.
Russia is increasingly dependent on China as its invasion of Ukraine drags on. Moreover, China is the country most integrated with the global economy. Therefore, China has the leverage, capacity and will to safeguard peace and prevent war in East Asia.
The US should avoid escalating tensions and maintain its commitment to the “one-China” policy, ensuring that the US-Japan-South Korea grouping does not evolve into a full military alliance. Additionally, the US should refrain from actions China views as supporting Taiwan’s independence, such as selling advanced military equipment to the island.

East Asia stands on the brink of war. All potential warring parties must contribute to peace efforts before it is too late. In particular, China and the US hold special responsibilities in this endeavour for peace, and they must get their relationship right.

Zhang Xiaotong is a professor at Department of Political Science and International Relations and director of the China and Central Asia Studies Center at KIMEP University, Kazakhstan

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