Over 3 million Americans quit their jobs – why that’s good news for Trump

As fewer Americans are quitting their jobs, experts told Newsweek how this could cause Republican frontrunner former President Donald Trump to have a slight edge as he approaches the November election.

Quit rates were at their lowest levels in August since June 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quits rate reached 1.9 percent in August, down from July’s 2 percent levels. So while 3.1 million Americans quit their jobs in August, that was a notable decrease from the 3.2 million who did in July.

Hiring was also at its lowest level since 2013, showing Americans might not feel optimistic about the labor market and aren’t finding new jobs or feeling confident they could if they left their current companies.

While 5.31 million hires were made in August, that was a significant decrease from 5.41 million the month before. Altogether, hiring rates were 3.3 percent in August, down from 3.4 percent in July.

Quit rates are typically a sign of how confident Americans are about the economy, with more workers likely to quit if they feel they have enough disposable income and other job options in the case of leaving their workplace.

“It’s definitely a complex issue with multiple factors at play but ultimately, in my view, it comes down to one thing: fear,” HR consultant Bryan Driscoll told Newsweek. “Workers are stuck in jobs they don’t like because they don’t believe they can find something better, or even survive a gap in employment—an outdated concept. This isn’t good news for the economy and honestly, it’s an indictment of a system that clearly fails to support workers.”

When Americans are less confident in the current economy, they tend to vote against the incumbent, which could have major implications for the 2024 election and lend Trump a slight boost as voters approach their ballots.

“It boils down to exploiting that fear,” Driscoll said. “He’ll sell the narrative—and some people will buy the narrative—that only he can fix the economy, conveniently ignoring that under his administration, worker protections were gutted, something he’d do even more of in a second term.”

While the Federal Reserve just lowered interest rates for the first time in four years, the slowing inflation rate might not be indicative of Americans’ perceived economic outlook. Many still face higher prices on necessities ranging from groceries to housing.

“Inflation is coming down,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this year. “The labor market is in a strong place. We want to keep it there. That’s what we’re doing.”

Driscoll said for many, low quit rates don’t signal workforce stability but instead indicate desperation.

“Workers aren’t quitting because they can’t afford to,” Driscoll said.

If workers compare their current economic certainty to the past, they might be inclined to believe Trump would be the better option for the economy and their livelihoods, said Kevin Thompson, a finance expert and the founder and CEO of 9i Capital Group.

“A negative economic outlook can favor the former president because people tend to focus on short-term effects,” Thompson told Newsweek. “‘What is happening to me right now?’ Many may feel they were better off six years ago when the economy appeared more stable before the pandemic. This perception can lead people to believe their lives were better under Trump.”

Robert Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University, said anything negative about the current economy can end up giving a boost to Trump as it brings doubts about the current administration.

“Any bad news about the economy in general and affecting individuals in particular can hurt Harris in that it reminds voters of the shortcomings of the Biden administration,” Shapiro told Newsweek. “It benefits Trump insofar as the election is a referendum on the Biden administration’s negative performance.”

Thompson said neither Trump nor Biden has had a dramatic impact on the labor market, so voting based on this could be faulty logic.

“Trump aims to bring back lower-wage factory jobs, which could lead to higher prices due to increased labor costs,” Thompson said. “Biden has overseen the return of jobs lost during the pandemic, but these jobs were expected to return once economic stimulus measures took effect.”

Many sectors have been scaling back their employment due to falling revenue or cutting back on pandemic-era positions no longer needed, said Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin.

“This has triggered those in jobs to stay put, while employers are being cautious about creating new roles,” Beene told Newsweek. “The emotions and movements, even if not on a larger scale yet, do benefit the Trump campaign, as it signals an uneasiness with the current economic outlook and a general belief that if Kamala Harris is elected, her administration will continue the same economic policies that are currently being implemented.”