Padres Daily: Until the World Series; Dylan Cease, rotation on a roll; Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado raking

Good morning,

The first two games of the series were like many seen in October, taut with tension and full of strategy and little moments that make a big difference. Last night’s game was simply the manifestation of a brilliant pitching matchup.

All three games in the Padres’ series against the Astros had the crowds and an energy reminiscent of the postseason.

“It was fun,” the Astros’ Mauricio Dubón said last night after the Padres beat his team for the second time in three days. “It would be a good World Series. They know who we are. We know who they have. It’s a good thing we play best-of-seven in October.”

And Manny Machado thinks it will happen.

As in, he believes the Padres are going to the World Series and that it will be the Astros they play.

“We’re playing really good baseball,” he said. “We played a really good ballclub that we’re probably going to be facing later on.”

Machado then doubled down without the qualifier

“We’re going to see them again,” he said. “They’re a really good ballclub, and how we played the last few days, I mean, it’s a little taste of it.”

It was pointed out to him there is only one round of the playoffs in which seeing the Astros again is possible. He smiled and replied,  “We always understood what the goal is all year. And this hasn’t changed, and we’re gonna continue to think that way.”

And later, in a nearly empty clubhouse, when he was asked again just to make sure, he said, “It’s going to happen.”

Do not confuse this with overconfidence. Machado has been one of the primary evangelists of Mike Shildt’s every opponent is the same, every game is the same mantra.

“We’re gonna continue to play,” Machado said at one point last night. “It’s not over. We’ve had the same mindset all year.”

He even refered to the White Sox, who come to San Diego next, as “a tough ballclub.” (That would be the White Sox who are three defeats away from matching the 1962 Mets’ MLB record of 120 losses.)

But call it what it is. It is a healthy confidence in what they have.

A starting rotation with four pitchers capable of shutting down top lineups. A bullpen arguably as deep at the back end as any in the game. An offense that possesses power but produces most games by stringing together hits and whatever else is required.

That is playoff caliber stuff. Could be World Series caliber. We’ll see.

“It’s a good team,” Astros manager Joe Espada said of the Padres. “It’s a really good team. They made some good acquisitions (at the trade deadline) and the back end is pretty good. They put the bat on the ball. There’s some tough outs. Center fielder (Jackson Merrill) is a pretty, pretty good player. We know what Machado can do. And that lineup, it’s just a complete offense.”

You can read my game story (here) about Dylan Cease’s magnificent night and the back-to-back-to-back home runs the Padres hit in their 4-0 victory. We’ll also talk more about both later.

Now, let’s check in on the playoff picture.

The three other teams in the running for a wild-card spot all won too, so the Padres maintained their standing.

Put simply, the Padres need a combination of wins and Braves losses that add up to five to be assured of a playoff spot. (Example: If the Padres win two of their remaining nine games and the Braves lose three of their remaining 10 games, the Braves cannot finish ahead of the Padres.)

Let’s take a look at what it would take for the Padres to finish ahead of the other three teams, beginning with the Braves and Mets.

The Diamondbacks and Padres playing each other in the final series of the regular season makes it impossible to definitively predict how that might go. The winner of that series will win the season series, as they have split their 10 games to date. If the Diamondbacks win the series, what needs to happen is identical to the Mets chart above. If the Padres win the series, this is what the Padres finishing ahead of the Diamondbacks looks like:

Rotation elevation

It was a positive sign for the Padres that Cease held the Giants scoreless for six innings last Friday.

What he did last night, allowing two hits while pitching what should have been a complete-game shutout against the team with the American League’s best batting average, is the kind of dominance that can set a tone for a playoff series.

At the least, the Padres have four bona fide playoff-caliber starting pitchers. (And maybe five, since it is difficult to dismiss out of hand the fact Martín Pérez has a 2.72 ERA with the Padres and that they have won seven of his eight starts.)

Going back to Cease’s last start, Padres starters have turned in a collective 0.70 ERA over six games (38⅓ innings). Pérez allowed one run on Sunday while falling three outs shy of making it six-for-six on quality starts.

“We know what has to be done if we want to make it to the next level, and we all want that,” Cease said. “So we’re all locked in right now.”

Over the last 15 games (since Sept. 1), the Padres rotation’s 2.44 ERA ranks fifth (third among playoff contenders in both leagues) and their .204 average allowed ranks fourth (second among contenders).

“It starts with the horses at the beginning of the game,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said when asked about the significance of the rotation appearing to be at its best as the playoffs approach. “… The whole group has been tremendous.”

Leader of the pack?

Cease has had a couple bad stretches this season, but his best is the Padres’ best.

Last night was his major league-leading fifth time going at least seven scoreless innings and allowing no more than two hits. (He also allowed one run on one hit in seven innings.)

He has thrown at least six scoreless innings in seven of his team-high 32 starts.

Last nght’s gem came against the Astros, who have been almost as hot as the Padres since mid-June. No starting pitcher had come close to that sort of success against the Astros over the past three months.

“To do that with that team over there,” Machado said, “shows you what he’s capable of.”

The Astros, whose .262 batting average heading into the game was third-best in the majors behind the Diamondbacks (.264) and Padres (.265), were aggressive. No team sees fewer pitches per plate appearance, and they weren’t going to make an exception against someone with Cease’s stuff. Nine at-bats lasted two pitches or less. Cease went to three balls in a count just three times. The Astros also strike out less than all but two teams (the Royals and Padres) and did so just five times last night against the pitcher with the second-most strikeouts in the majors.

“They’re very talented, and they get their swings off,” Cease said. “So if you can put the ball in a good spot, you can get them to get themselves out. And that’s the name of the game.”

Cease was through five innings on 61 pitches, six on 72 and seven on 85. He had already gone 100 pitches or more an MLB-high 17 times this season. He knew what was possible.

He told pitching coach Ruben Niebla at that point and told him he was going to finish the eighth and ninth.

“He said, ‘Hey, just take it one at a time,’” Cease recalled. “I said, ‘All right.’ But I felt, you know, when you get through six with a low pitch count, it’s very easy to dream about going further.”

Cease blamed himself for the infield single by Dubón leading off the ninth inning, a 76.7 mph roller up the middle that shortstop Xander Bogaerts bobbled while trying to hurry. Cease still almost got the complete game when Jose Altuve hit a hard grounder to Bogaerts that seemed it would start a game-ending double play before the ball glanced of Bogaerts’ glove and rolled into left field.

That was the end of Cease’s night.

But it did not diminish what he did.

I wrote in the game story that given the opponent and the time of year, plus the fact he did not walk any batters, the performance could be put on the same level as his July 25 no-hitter against the Nationals.

Cease balked. But in the end, he said, “In terms of execution, arguably this was maybe a little better. But … a no-hitter is just special.”

M(achado)M(errill) VP

This note is for Bryce Miller (and everyone else) who already crowned Merrill the Padres’ most valuable player.

Look, there are almost no wrong nominations here. Merrill and Machado for what they have done since June. Jurickson Profar for what he did from March to early August and resumed in September.

And as I noted when I first mentioned the (very good, even delightful) column Bryce wrote earlier this month, it really doesn’t matter. But it’s a fun discussion to have.

And for the past three months, the only National League player with a higher OPS than Machado is the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani, who is almost certainly going to be the league’s MVP.

I haven’t broken this chart out in a while:

Here’s the thing about a lot of the greats: They announce when they are about to be great, as Machado did on June 18.

Here’s one more thing about Machado’s importance to the team: Last night, after losing Tuesday for the first time this season when Machado had multiple RBIs, they got back to winning when he does. They are now 27-1 in that instance.

Giving Merrill his due: The rookie’s OPS since June 8 (11 days before Machado began his tear) is .944, second-best in the NL in that span behind Ohtani. The Padres are 54-32 since then.

Merrill was 3-for-4 and hit his 28th double last night, extending his Padres rookie record. He is one of five rookies to have ever hit at least 24 home runs, 28 doubles and six triples. All of the other four did so in the 1930s. Among the other four were a couple guys named Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams.

Here is what Merrill said as he prepared to depart Globe Life Field after the All-Star game in July: “I just have to play kind of like a second-half All-Star now and try to help the team as much as possible so we can dominate.”

Here is a chart showing some of Merrill’s stats before the All-Star break and after:

Tidbits

• Jeff Sanders wrote a story (here) yesterday wrapping up Josh Hader’s visit to San Diego to play the team he helped (2022) and hurt (2023). The impetus for the story was that Hader suggested to Houston reporters on Tuesday he was living “rent-free” in Padres fans’ heads. Sanders thought Musgrove — one of the Padres’ most thoughtful spokesmen, a former teammate of Hader’s and a lifelong Padres fan — would have some interesting perspective. And Musgrove certainly did.
• Last night was the fifth time in franchise history the Padres hit a home run in three consecutive at-bats and the first time since 1997.
• Donovan Solano, who hit the third of those three, now has seven home runs on the season. That ties his career high.
• Machado’s two home runs last night gave him 342 for his career, tied for 105th all-time with Evan Longoria and Ron Santo.
• Last night was the Padres’ 15th shutout, tied with the Braves for most in the major leagues.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. hit his fifth home run in the past past eight games. He has at least one hit in each of those games and is batting .364 (12-for-33) during the streak. He is batting .298 (17-for-57) with a .924 OPS since returning from the injured list on Sept. 2.
• Since they both joined the team in 2019, the Padres are 19-3 when Machado and Tatis homer in the same game. Since the start of the 2020 season, that record is 17-1.
• Machado’s first home run last night had a launch angle of 19 degrees and never got more than 52 feet above the ground as it sped a projected 396 feet to the seats beyond left field. That requires an almost impossible amount of backspin and bat speed. How close to impossible? Machado’s 38 home runs with a launch angle of 19 degrees or less are second in the StatCast era (2015) to Giancarlo Stanton’s 45. The next-closest player is the retired Nelson Cruz, who hit 24 homers that low between 2015 and ’23. Just 2.6 percent of all home runs hit over the past 10 seasons have been that low.
• Brandon Lockridge got his first big-league start and laid down a bunt for his first big-league hit in the third inning. You can read Sanders’ pregame story (here) for Lockridge’s thoughts on his place on the team.

All right, that’s it for me.

No game today, so no newsletter tomorrow. We will have a couple things on our Padres page today, including a column on Luis Arraez by Bryce Miller and a story I am writing on one of the key turnarounds for the Padres this season.

Next newsletter will be in your inbox Saturday after the series opener against the White Sox.

P.S. If you are reading this online, there is an easier way to get the Padres Daily. And it is free! Sign up here to have it emailed to you the morning after every game the rest of the season (and postseason).

Originally Published: September 19, 2024 at 6:30 a.m.