Pay for job changers rose at the slowest pace in more than 3 years

Workers are finding it increasingly less rewarding to leave their current job for a new one.

New data from ADP released Wednesday showed that the median year-over-year pay increase for job switchers fell to 6.6% in September, down from 7.3% in August and the lowest growth rate since April 2021. The gap between pay gains for job changers and those of job stayers, which grew at a 4.7% pace in August, is at its narrowest since January and a far cry from 2022-2023 levels during the “Great Resignation.”

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told Yahoo Finance on a call with reporters that the narrowing gap in pay gains for people who stay versus increases for those who leave their jobs is a sign the labor market is “less tight … less dynamic.”

“There is an equilibrium, but I don’t know how long we stay in equilibrium,” Richardson said.

While the large pay increases seen amid the labor market over the past several years have cooled off, the entirety of ADP’s data reveals a job situation that isn’t rapidly deteriorating. The latest data from ADP out Wednesday showed the private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, above economists’ estimates for 125,000 and significantly higher than the 99,000 seen in August. This marked the end of a five-month decline in private-sector job additions.

“This is a pretty healthy, widespread rebound,” Richardson said. “And probably unexpected by many people who thought the job market was on a downward slide. This month, of course, gives pause to those kinds of assessments. Hiring is still solid.”

Still, this week has brought further signs of a slowdown in the labor market. On Tuesday, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, ticked down to 1.9% in August from July’s 2%, marking the lowest rate since June 2020.

But Richardson noted that the data falls in line with the trends ADP is seeing in wage gains. If people aren’t seeing large pay bumps by leaving their jobs, they’re less likely to leave.

“The payoff for job changing is not quite as complex as it was earlier this year,” Richardson said. “That points to some stability in this labor market.”

Richardson added that this slowdown to “stable growth” could characterize the labor market data for the rest of 2024 as quits and layoffs remain low, keeping worker turnover muted while some hiring still takes place.

Another look at the labor market will come this week with Friday’s release of the September jobs report. According to Bloomberg data, economists expect the report to show that 150,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. In August, the US economy added 142,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%.

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Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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