The results of the planet’s first annual physical—a complete health check—are in, and they are alarming. We are deep into the yellow danger zone and moving rapidly towards the red high-risk zone, where risks of permanently damaging life support on earth increase fast.
A patient in critical condition needs regular monitoring. The Planetary Health Check, launched by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research on Sept. 24, fulfills this role by monitoring all nine planetary boundary processes and providing decision makers in public and private sectors with improved data, to accelerate and scale the transformations towards a safe and just landing for humanity within the safe operating space.
Thanks to major scientific advancements in earth system science, tipping point research, and earth observation capabilities, we can now conclude that six of the nine planetary life-support systems have breached the safe operating zone for human life. This includes: climate change, change in biosphere integrity (this is driven by biodiversity and habitat loss), modification of biogeochemical flows (overloading with nitrogen and phosphorus due to overuse of fertilizers), land system change (mainly deforestation), change in freshwater cycles (continued overuse of freshwater and human caused changes in rainfall), and introduction of novel entities into the earth system, i.e., the myriad of human generated chemicals, like microplastics, PFAS (better known as “forever chemicals”), nuclear waste, and pesticides.
Meanwhile, we are rapidly moving closer to breaching the planetary boundary for ocean acidification, mainly due to continued human-caused CO2 emissions of which more than 25% are being absorbed by the oceans. The two planetary boundary processes stratospheric ozone depletion (the loss of the ozone layer due to chemicals like CFCs) and atmospheric aerosol loading (primarily driven by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels) are currently within the green zone at a global scale.
Together, these processes and systems regulate the health of our planet. We all depend on them irrespective of where we live. And the science is clear: the patient, our home planet earth, is in critical condition. If we continue on this path, human health and wellbeing, economic prosperity, social stability, and equality, are all at risk. The only way to keep them safe for humanity is by combining local action and national regulation with collective global governance.
What does all this imply for our common future?
The stability of societies and economies depends on a healthy earth system, including, for example, stable climate conditions, secure water availability, and a resilient biosphere providing ecosystem service every citizen depends on. Science shows that the rise in life-threatening extreme events such as droughts, floods, fires, heat waves, disease outbreaks, and many more, are caused by us humans. These first symptoms of patient earth are increasing in frequency and strength because we have breached several planetary boundaries. The Planetary Health Check sheds light on such symptoms and tracks them down to their sources.
The first implication if we continue on the business as usual path is that extreme weather events will increase in frequency, causing harm to people and economies, and particularly the world’s most vulnerable communities. This will trigger further population displacement and migration, raising further risks of conflict.
The second implication is that Earth will continue losing its resilience—the capacity to buffer and dampen stress and shock—triggering planetary tipping points. As we cross 1.5°C of warming, the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and all tropical coral reef systems are in jeopardy of crossing the threshold where irreversible change is unavoidable—worsening further habitability for humans on earth. Further, the associated higher sea levels and loss of livelihoods will have catastrophic consequences.
The severity of the earth’s health calls for a fundamental and urgent reset of our relationship with the planet. As U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres hosted the first Summit of the Future (SOTF) last week, our message was clear: we can only define a just and healthy future for humanity, if we in parallel secure the future of the planet. The Sustainable Development Goals are unattainable on a critically ill planet. The planetary boundaries are a baseline for global justice and a reminder that the breaches caused by the wealthiest nations will have the most severe impact on the most vulnerable.
There is still a window of opportunity, however, if we can change direction over the next five years. Here are five actions we need to collectively take:
Planetary stewardship
We need to urgently strengthen global governance for all nine boundaries. Currently we have several international treaties and agreements that nations have signed: the 1987 Montreal Protocol (which successfully enabled the world to halt the depletion of the ozone layer), the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the 2022 Global Biodiversity Framework, the 2019 Colombo Declaration on sustainable nitrogen, the 2023 High Seas Treaty, and others. However, not all governments have been signatory to all these agreements, nor do they deliver on their commitments. That needs to change.
Innovation
Exponential and transformative innovation must occur on a global scale. Regulations are important but need to be accompanied by major technological and social innovation, ranging from circular business models closing the loop on resource extraction and waste, harnessing big data and AI for greater accountability and fair distribution of natural capital.
Operationalize Planetary Boundaries
Several efforts are already underway to translate the science of quantifying planetary boundaries into tools for cities, businesses, and financial institutions, such as science-based targets for each planetary boundary process and standardizing reporting metrics beyond climate and nature. Our vision is to translate the annual Planetary Health Check into a dashboard that can interactively inform investors, business leaders, and policy makers, and allows them to monitor and analyze user-tailored real-time data.
Economic and financial breakthrough
Operating the global economy within nine scientifically defined planetary boundaries means global and finite budgets for use of natural resources. So far, we understand carbon, where the 1.5°C boundary translates to a global carbon budget. Today, only 200 billion tons of that budget remains—that’s equivalent to five years of global emissions at the current pace. Budgets lead to scarcity, which requires an economic value in order to provide the right incentives for paths to avoid breaching the budget. The same applies for freshwater, land, nitrogen, and phosphorus. We need to calculate these nine earth budgets to send the right signals to the global economy, and then start monitoring, accounting, and reporting on them. We must always review through a lens of planetary justice so those who have not caused the problems are supported in this transition back to a safe operating space.
New science
Our scientific capabilities have transformed. Now, for the first time, we have scientific quantifications of safe boundaries for all “organs” that determine the health of the planet. We also have technologies, like near earth satellites, super-computing capacity for data storage and analytics, AI, and major earth system modeling capabilities. The breakthrough is that we can now have an annual Planetary Health Check, instead of one every six to eight years as has been the scientific pace to-date. The vision is a ‘Mission Control Room’ for planet earth, accessible to all, including both planetary scale health assessments and high-resolution spatial maps across the world.
The planet is raising a red alert. These steps are urgent and necessary, more than ever before. With the Planetary Health Check, we now have a monitoring system for our progress, enabling us to execute and account for our responsibility towards a good world for everyone.
