Portland Trail Blazers 2024-25 season preview: Can any of their prospects develop into a star?

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

2023-24 finish

Offseason moves

• Additions: Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan, Bryce McGowans

• Subtractions: Malcolm Brogdon, Ibou Badji, Moses Brown, Ashton Hagans

• Complete roster

The Big Question: Is there really a cornerstone here?

When you’re a fan of a very bad team in the midst of rebuilding, what you’re looking for is a reason to believe. Something to latch on to as a vessel for your hopes for a better future, and ideally a someone: Devin Booker on the pre-CP3 Suns, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the early decade Thunder, Victor Wembanyama on last year’s Spurs, et al.

It’s not shocking that Portland doesn’t really have that yet, barely one year removed from the franchise-shaking decision to bid farewell to Damian Lillard. But after finishing with the West’s worst record in Year 1 post-Dame — the Blazers’ fourth sub-.500 finish in the last five seasons — this roster still feels very much like a collection of free-floating celestial bodies in search of a big bright shining star to pull it into an appropriate prescribed orbit.

The Blazers’ two highest-paid players, forward Jerami Grant and center Deandre Ayton, are both productive veterans, but neither of them profiles as that kind of organizing principle. Ayton came on late in his first season in Oregon, averaging 22.7 points and 12.5 rebounds per game after the All-Star break; his long-term prognosis in Portland got considerably cloudier, though, when the Blazers drafted the 7-foot-2 Clingan with the seventh overall pick in June’s 2024 NBA Draft.

Grant, one of just five players to average 20 points per game and shoot 40% from 3-point land in each of the last two seasons, could also be a player of interest on the trade market … if would-be suitors can finagle a way to take on the remainder of his massive five-year, $160 million deal without running afoul of the apron. For his part, Avdija (who played very well last season, albeit in near-total anonymity on a bad Wizards team without much national profile) occupies a similar space to Grant — a capable combo forward who can plug multiple gaps on both ends of the floor, but more a star-in-his-role complementary piece than a true No. 1.

Anfernee Simons has the athleticism, high-volume/high-accuracy 3-point shooting touch and off-the-bounce scoring juice to potentially develop into a top option. (His per-possession production over the last few seasons actually lines up pretty well with what Lillard put up at the same age.) But a smaller combo guard who’s a more natural scorer than playmaker (he’s hovered around a good-but-not-great 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio since becoming a starter) and a blaring fire-engine-red target on the other end (a slew of advanced defensive metrics marked him as one of the league’s very worst defenders last season) is a tricky piece to build around unless he’s a no-doubt-top-tier offensive talent. (And, honestly, even then. See “Hawks, Atlanta.”)

The spotlight, then, falls on the Blazers’ other two highly touted young guards: 21-year-old Shaedon Sharpe and 20-year-old Scoot Henderson. The promising start to Sharpe’s sophomore season — nearly 19 points, six rebounds and four assists per game on .550 true shooting through the first 22 games — were derailed by a core muscle injury that eventually required surgery. Hopes for a similarly strong start to Year 3 have already hit a speed bump: a second tear of the labrum in his left shoulder, expected to sideline him through at least the first few weeks of the season.

A (slight) silver lining to Sharpe’s delayed re-entry: It clears the path for Henderson, who struggled mightily after coming off the board third overall in the 2023 NBA Draft, to try to cement himself as a bona fide building block.

Doing so will require a dramatic shot-making uptick after a rocky freshman campaign that saw Henderson shoot a ghastly 47.3% at the rim (dead-last among 237 players to take at least 100 up-close tries) and just 35% on all attempts outside the restricted area. If you can’t finish at the cup or knock down enough jumpers to make opponents honor you on the perimeter, you’re going to have an awfully hard time being a consistently positive offensive force, no matter how explosive you are off the dribble.

Without significant strides as a finisher or pick-and-roll facilitator, it’s tough to see Henderson developing into a true foundational piece of Portland’s future puzzle. If he can make a major leap in one or both respects, though, then he becomes a much more interesting prospect — one who, together with Clingan, Sharpe and whomever general manager Joe Cronin picks with what’s overwhelmingly likely to be an early pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, could one day form the core of the next legit Blazers team. Right now, though, that day still seems a long, long way off.

Best-case scenario

Ayton, Grant, Avdija and Simons spend the first half of the season providing some semblance of a stable infrastructure in which to evaluate Sharpe, Henderson, Clingan and the rest of Portland’s young pieces. Some of them show real signs of growth and development — the kind of sparks and flickers that increase your confidence these guys really can become the foundation of what’s next. And then, with that renewed belief in hand, Cronin’s able to spin off several of the veterans — most notably one of either Ayton or Robert Williams III — to reduce Portland’s positional redundancy, clearing the runway for Clingan and the guards to experience their growing pains while paving the path to another top-of-the-lottery pick to augment and solidify the young core.

If everything falls apart

Scoot still can’t shoot, Sharpe and Simons still struggle to contribute without the ball in their hands, none of them can defend — and, worse, none of them can stay healthy and available at the same time, preventing Cronin and head coach Chauncey Billups from getting an honest gauge on which combinations might have promise. The market for Portland’s highest-paid vets proves chilly enough that Grant and Ayton stay put, helping the Blazers win more games than they’d honestly prefer ahead of the Cooper Flagg draft. The season ends not with a bang, but with a Pacific Northwest drizzle of a whimper: out of the play-in, out of the top of the draft, in the mushy middle of the league’s lower class, without evidence of a clear way back toward the top.

Fantasy spin

Portland is one of the least intriguing teams in fantasy basketball. I’ve willingly drafted Simons because his ADP is affordable in the seventh round, even though you might be able to snag him in the eighth. When it comes to drafting Ayton, I prefer waiting for a round or two to scoop a big man who won’t cost a fifth-round pick.

Grant will probably find his way to another team at some point, but until then, he’s only useful for points and 3s — an easy fade even at his ADP. Avdija is a player I’m expecting to outperform his ADP. He’s a sleeper going in the 11th round with a versatile skillset for fantasy. Henderson is better for points leagues, but if you can stomach his inefficiency and turnovers, he could make for a decent source of points and assists in the backend of drafts. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

Hope springs eternal in the preseason — which, in this case, means the Blazers will be both terrible on their merits and able to offload their helpful veterans with enough time to really rack up the L’s on the back-half of the schedule. I’ll take the under; it wouldn’t surprise me if this year’s model gives the 1971-72 crew a run for its money as the worst team in franchise history.

More season previews

East: Atlanta Hawks • Boston Celtics • Brooklyn Nets • Charlotte Hornets • Chicago Bulls • Cleveland Cavaliers • Detroit Pistons • Indiana Pacers • Miami Heat • Milwaukee Bucks • New York Knicks • Orlando Magic • Philadelphia 76ers • Toronto Raptors • Washington Wizards

West: Dallas Mavericks • Denver Nuggets • Golden State Warriors • Houston Rockets • Los Angeles Clippers • Los Angeles Lakers • Memphis Grizzlies • Minnesota Timberwolves • New Orleans Pelicans • Oklahoma City Thunder • Phoenix Suns • Portland Trail Blazers • Sacramento Kings • San Antonio Spurs • Utah Jazz