Postsecondary Education Critical for High-Earning Jobs of the Future

The majority of future good jobs will be accessible through bachelor’s degree pathways.

That’s according to a new report by the Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. “The Future of Good Jobs: Projections through 2031” reminds readers that higher education has a critical role to play in the future earnings of their students and the stability of the American economy.

“It emphasizes that the four-year degree is very valuable to workers, despite skepticism about that that’s current in some narratives,” said Catherine Morris, senior editor and writer at CEW and an author of the report. “But, simply ensuring you get a degree isn’t enough — it needs to be in a specific area, aligned with labor markets.”

Morris, a former reporter for Diverse, said that postsecondary institutions should partner with local industry leaders to assess their needs and discover which jobs will be most plentiful in the future to better align programs and build pathways into good jobs.

Matthew Muench, head of Jobs and Skills at JP Morgan Chase Global Philanthropy, who helped sponsor the report, wrote in his forward that institutions and their business partners owed it to low-income students to help more complete their bachelor’s degrees and embark in middle skills journeys. Muench called for a greater investment in community colleges, which are often more easily able to pivot and meet local employer needs, as well as investing in workforce development programs, unions, and “other stakeholders to design high quality training for in-demand jobs.”

The in-depth report covers trends that impact the landscape of employment, and how the impending retirement of boomers and the development of AI, particularly generative AI, might impact the workforce. Most boomers are expected to retire, despite some choosing to remain in the labor force, and AI has thrown a level of unpredictability into calculations. But the experts agreed that despite AI’s potential impact, the jobs forecast looks strong through 2031, with more good jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree than in years before.

Artem Gulish, senior federal policy advisor at CEW and an author of the report.“There will be good jobs in every educational pathway — but more so for people with postsecondary education,” said Artem Gulish, senior federal policy advisor at CEW and an author of the report. “There will be a substantial number of managerial and professional office jobs that will be the biggest cluster [of job growth], and most of those will go to college graduates.”

As defined within the report, a good job is one that pays at least $43,000, with a median income of $74,000 when workers are between 25 and 44 years of age. Good jobs are expected to pay more when the worker is older, between the ages of 45 and 64. Overall yearly median earnings of good jobs regardless of age is $82,000, and the majority of workers will earn between $62,000 and $116,000.

The report finds that good jobs in the U.S. are expected to grow more than 20% between the years of 2021 and 2031, with the largest growth seen for those holding bachelor’s degrees. About 80% of jobs on the bachelor’s degree pathway are expected to meet the earning threshold of a good job. Only about 50% of middle skills (associate degrees) pathway jobs and just over 33% of high school pathway jobs meet that threshold.

“Workers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) are going to have the highest likelihood of good jobs — 90% will be good,” said Gulish. “If you want to maximize the potential for a good job, STEM’s the area: AI, technology, specific developments in renewable energy, the CHIPs Act.”

While STEM jobs are more likely to earn more income, CEW predicts there will be fewer STEM jobs available than managerial or professional jobs, which are predicted to have both a higher likelihood of good pay and to be numerous. The report finds that 84% of these good managerial positions will require a bachelor’s degree or higher credential.

Gulish said postsecondary pathways must come equipped with on and off-ramps, as future jobs might require students to be able to reenter education to acquire necessary skills.

“Right now, there are good jobs in construction based on infrastructure investments from the government. Once that funding dries up, it’s a question of whether that money will continue in the future,” said Gulish. “There may be need for those mid-skill workers to come back [to postsecondary institutions] and learn new skills. Having pathways that ensures they’re able to do that without having to start over and lose credits for what they’ve already done will be important.”