Prairie Fare: Will food prices continue to increase at a high rate?

As I placed my grocery bags in my car, I noticed something at the bottom of the cart and picked it up. It was someone else’s shopping list. Ordinarily, I would have thrown it in the garbage.

I am not a “garbologist.” That’s a real thing by the way. Garbology is the study of materials that are discarded.

Trust me, I am not interested in rooting through someone’s trash. The discarded shopping list was interesting.

You can learn a lot from people’s shopping habits. This person was organized in bringing a shopping list and crossing off the items. Trash bags and laundry detergent were in the middle of the food.

We usually recommend that people arrange their shopping lists to coincide with the layout of the store. That makes shopping trips more efficient. Most of the time, grocery stores are not the least expensive place to buy detergent and trash bags, unless the items are on sale and you have coupons

I guessed the shopping list was kept on a counter top or refrigerator, and items were jotted down as needed.

Chocolate syrup and grape jelly were toward the top of the list. I knew they had a taste for sweets. We can fit these items, in moderation, in a healthful diet.

They listed processed cheese and hydrogenated oil. These would not be a dietitian’s dream foods. Processed cheese, while tasty, is high in salt and saturated fat, which do not promote heart health.

Hydrogenated oil is high in trans fat, which is linked to raising LDL (“bad”) cholesterol and lowering HDL (“good”) blood cholesterol. Using a liquid oil, such as canola, sunflower or olive, is more healthful.

Not all of the items were crossed off the list. The person might have been on a tight budget or perhaps just in a hurry.

After my adventure in garbology, I thought about the study of “money.” It’s not “money-ology” but, rather, finance or economics.

I think we have all felt the financial squeeze at the grocery store during the past few years. Have you noticed lighter grocery bags and higher bills? Have family and friends commented?

According to the Consumer Price Index for Food from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, prices increased significantly, particularly in 2022, based on their nationwide analysis of prices.

In 2022, food prices increased nearly 10%, which was the fastest rate of increase since 1979. Further, food prices away from home (in restaurants, etc.) increased by more than 11%.

We probably will not see a major decrease in food prices, but the future looks a bit better. Prices will continue to increase, although more slowly

In 2024, food at home prices were predicted to increase an overall average of 1.1% and food away from home, by 4.1%. In 2025, economists predict a 0.8% increase for food prepared at home, and a 3.1% increase for food away from home.

We all need to eat. Buying food at a grocery store and preparing it at home is better for your bottom line and often your nutritional quality.

What’s a savvy consumer to do? Writing a grocery list and sticking to it is one way to save money. Plan your meals ahead of time. Consider using store ads and digital or paper coupons. However, only use coupons for foods that you will eat, not just for grabbing a “deal.”

Compare different forms of food throughout the store. Canned, fresh, and frozen fruits and vegetables all count toward the usual recommendation of four and a half cups per day.

Consider various options for lean protein foods, including fresh meats, poultry and fish, as well as frozen or canned. Add fiber- and protein-rich beans and lentils as protein extenders in chili and soup.

Use “unit pricing” so you can determine price per ounce. Unit prices usually are on the store shelves, or you can use a calculator. Sometimes buying the larger package with a lower unit price is a good deal; other times, you might buy something you won’t eat and it goes to waste.

If children accompany you, set a limit ahead of the shopping trip. Children exert their “pester power” readily. This is a marketing term related to the ability of children to influence food purchases. Perhaps let them pick one item as a special treat. Even better, let them pick a fruit or vegetable in the produce aisle.

Check out our “Now You’re Cookin” and “Pinchin’ Pennies in the Kitchen” series of free publications on the NDSU Extension food and nutrition page at

www.ag.ndsu.edu/food

(under “Food Preparation”). The series includes menu planning and cost-saving tips and many simple recipes such as the following.

Yogurt Fruit Crunch
2 cups low-fat yogurt (plain or vanilla)
1 cup fruit, fresh (1 banana) or canned in light syrup (drained)
1 cup dry cereal, crunchy

Drain fruit if using canned fruit or cut up the fresh fruit. Mix the yogurt and fruit together in a mixing bowl. Spoon the mixture into small serving dishes. Sprinkle ¼ cup cereal on top of each serving.

Makes four servings. Each serving has 170 calories, 1.5 grams (g) fat, 7 g protein, 33 g carbohydrate, 1 g fiber and 135 milligrams sodium.

Julie Garden-Robinson, Ph.D., R.D., L.R.D., is a North Dakota State University Extension food and nutrition specialist and professor in the Department of Health, Nutrition and Exercise Sciences.